US tariff talks with China and Great Britain, stock market news of companies and geopolitics

Latest stock market news

• The US stock market rose by an average of 1% yesterday. The healthcare sector was under pressure again. Two other defensive sectors, XLP and XLU, were also weak.
The US dollar rose in price, and against this backdrop, gold fell to $3,300.
And Bitcoin has its own life - almost $103,000.
Everything is calm in the morning.

• There is no doubt that markets are more optimistic about an easing of global trade tensions than they were two weeks ago, when US President Donald Trump's administration first began hinting at a de-escalation of relations with China. But whatever hopes are pinned on talks between US and Chinese officials scheduled for Saturday in Switzerland, support for them is not uniform across markets.

• The dollar is still rising against the euro, hitting a month-high, but the safe-haven yen is climbing from a month-low, likely in response to Beijing's defiant tone on Friday, when a vice foreign minister said his country didn't want a trade war, but wasn't afraid of one. In overseas markets, the yuan fell to a one-week low.

• Trump has hinted that the sky-high 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, which are effectively an embargo, will likely be lifted, although the White House has dismissed as speculation a New York Post report that it plans to cut the tariffs by more than half.

In stock markets, Japan's Nikkei rose 1.5%, but gains elsewhere in Asia were more muted and, perhaps tellingly, Chinese bourses including Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped. Wall Street futures were flat on Friday after relatively strong gains overnight. European futures were only marginally higher.

• U.S.-U.K. deal: Washington's ramp-up of a trade deal with London on Thursday left the market somewhat disappointed. Analysts later called it more of a framework than a trade deal, and more style than substance. But if the glass-half-full view of the situation is the first deal since Trump began raising tariffs in earnest, it offers hope that the White House may seek quick deals in the coming weeks to bring some additional calm to markets that have been hit hard by unpredictable U.S. trade orders.

• Crude oil traders appeared to be in a bullish mood, with the Nymex index rising more than 3% on Thursday, while safe-haven gold retreated slightly from last month's all-time high.

• Bitcoin has been particularly buoyant, retreating to $104,000 on Friday. At various times this year, the token has acted as a barometer of risk appetite and expectations for Trump’s policies. But things could get even worse now, according to StanChart digital asset analyst Jeffrey Kendrick. He predicts a breakout of the all-time high of $109,071.86 is “soon.” “It’s all about flows now,” he wrote in his latest note, pointing to both whale buying and ETF inflows. “I apologize, but my Q2 target of $120,000 may be too low.”

• Trump: "I advise you to buy stocks. Believe me, this country will take off like a rocket straight into the sky!"

• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: We want 50% of chips to be made domestically.

• Rheinmetall reported better than expected. The company also raised its sales forecast for 2025 to +25-30%.
Rheinmetall CEO predicts rapid growth in defense spending by NATO countries.

• Toyota (TM, -0.5%) expects profit to decline due to U.S. tariffs and higher material costs. Q1 net income fell 33%, - WSJ.

• Stripe launches support for stablecoin accounts for global payments in 100+ countries.

• OpenAI has hired an additional CEO, Bloomberg has named Fiji Simo to the new role of head of applications. She will report to Altman, who will remain CEO of the entire company and focus on research and security.

• Japanese sogo shosha shares rise on Buffett's 50-year holding plan.
The shares rose after Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett said he expects the holding company to hold its investments in them for 50 years or more.

• China Airlines announced orders for Boeing 777X passenger and cargo models (BA).

• Apple's (AAPL) Watch sales have fallen for two straight years. Apple Watch shipments are down 19% in 2024.

• US banks can now act as executors of crypto transactions at the request of clients.
They can engage in outsourced crypto custody services, and conduct tax reporting on crypto - the currency regulator OCC clarified.

• Arizona signed HB2749 into law, allowing the state to create a strategic BTC reserve.
In Texas, the BTC reserve bill SB21 has passed through the House committee and now heads to a final vote.

• Robinhood (HOOD) is developing a blockchain network for European retail investors to trade tokenized US securities.

• Total inflows into BTC spot ETFs hit new high of $40.62 billion = record.
Coinbase buys Deribit for $2.9 billion, execs say - WSJ
Bitcoin above $100,000 for first time since February,
Ethereum above $2,000 for first time since March.

• World trade leader Maersk reported a 70% increase in profits in Q1.
The forecast for 2025 was left unchanged.
The forecast for the global container shipping market was reduced due to duties.

• Apple (AAPL) seeks stay of court ruling over transactions in its own app store
Epic called the company's actions "a desperate attempt to maintain a monopoly and charge excessive fees."

• Inflows into gold ETFs in April amounted to $11 billion - inflows have continued for 5 months in a row.
Asian countries bought gold for a record $7.3 billion in April - WGC.

• Quantum computing stocks soar
after D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) reported 500% year-over-year revenue growth. D-Wave shares rose 51%, while other sector players like IonQ (IONQ), Quantum Computing (QUBT) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) gained 9-19%.

• Talen Energy (TLN, -1.2%) is considering alternative power supply agreements for data centers after a regulatory waiver.

• Google (GOOGL, +1.9%) denied Apple (AAPL) chief Eddy Cue's claims that search activity was declining,
noting increased activity across multiple platforms. Google shares rose 1.7%.

• Uber (UBER, -1.6%) received a rating downgrade from Wedbush to Neutral from Outperform due to limited near-term growth catalysts.

• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) announced it will issue $450 million in convertible notes through 2030. Shares fell 3.95% in premarket trading.

• Applovin (APP) rose 12% after beating Q1 estimates.

• Jefferies raised its price target on rising advertising revenue.

• Arm Holdings (ARM) lost more than 6% on weak 2026 guidance, although analysts point to potential demand and strong fourth-quarter results.

• Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is near its bottom after a weak Q1 report and a dividend suspension. The company is cutting debt and focusing on expansion in the U.S. and international franchises.

• Fortinet (FTNT) fell 8% on guidance uncertainty, though Q1 results met expectations
. Concerns centered on the company's valuation and future performance.

• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD, +5.3%) missed its Q1 guidance
but showed growth in streaming (+5.3 million subscribers). Its goal is to reach 150 million subscribers by 2026.

• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF, -15.8%) posted a big loss in Q1 and plans to shut down six steel mills to cut costs.

• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ, +4.4%) posted strong Q1 results
thanks to record liquids, gas and oil production following the purchase of Chevron's stake in the Athabasca project.

• Donald Trump said the US had reached a trade deal with Britain, the first of a series of deals he had promised with countries around the world.

• Ford Motor Co. (F, 0%) executives told shareholders Thursday that they have no plans to buy back shares or spin off their profitable commercial vehicle operations -- answering questions on both topics at their annual shareholder meeting.

• BYD plans to sell half of its vehicles outside China by 2030.

Stocks in the morning after reports
LYFT +7.3%
DKNG +1.8%
MARA -1.8%
PINS +15.6%
COIN -2.7%
SOUN -5.1%

Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- Bank of England Governor Bailey, Fed Governors Barr, Kugler and New York Fed President Williams speak at a conference in Reykjavik, Iceland.
- Richmond Fed President Barkin and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speak on separate occasions.
- ECB Governor Schnabel speaks at Harvard University.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Germany - Industrial production (March)
+3% m/m (expected +0.9% / previously -1.3%).

• The US has imposed sanctions on a Chinese oil refinery that imports Iranian oil.

• Trump pushes Republican lawmakers to raise taxes on wealthy Americans.
New tax increases for individuals making more than $2.5 million a year and families making more than $5 million a year.

• US Labor Market Indicators
Unemployment Claims = 228K (expected 231K/actual 242K).
Nonfarm Productivity = -0.8% (expected -0.4%/actual 1.7%).
Unit Labor Costs = 5.7% (expected 5.3%/actual 2.2%).

• U.S. wholesale inventories fell slightly in March. U.S. wholesale inventories rose slightly less than initially estimated in March, led by declines in electrical goods, lumber, clothing and farm supplies. Inventories at wholesalers rose 0.4%, revised down from a 0.5% gain estimated last month.

• US-UK trade deal to leave 10% US tariffs in place - CNN
Trump: "The UK trade deal will give the US $6 billion in foreign revenue from the 10% tariffs and $5 billion in new export opportunities."

Latnik: "As part of this agreement, the UK government nationalized British Steel."
The UK government said that US tariffs on auto products were immediately reduced from 27.5%, and duties on steel and aluminum were completely abolished.

• The EU is stepping up measures in response to US tariffs. It has proposed imposing duties on €95 billion worth of US goods and limiting exports of scrap and chemicals to the US by €4.4 billion.

• In a new report, Fitch Ratings notes that the global trade war will reduce growth in the global and European economies.
The forecast for the eurozone for 2025 has been reduced to 0.6%, with the chemical, automotive and technology sectors suffering the most.
All insurance and banking sectors will feel pressure due to financial volatility.

• Poland will no longer demand reparations from Germany for World War II.
This was stated by the Prime Minister of the Republic, Donald Tusk, after a meeting with the Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz.

• Lithuania will spend 5.25% of GDP on defense next year.
The Finance Ministry and economic experts estimate that this could slow economic growth by 0.2%.

• India's currency falls to lowest since 2022 amid conflict with Pakistan

• China uses its own DeepSeek AI model to design advanced fighter jets like the J-15 and J-35, as well as next-generation aircraft like the J-36 and J-50.
The AI ​​speeds up R&D by optimizing stealth, materials and performance, the South China Morning Post reported.

• The Vatican is facing a severe financial crisis. The budget deficit has tripled during Francis’s pontificate, and the pension fund — with liabilities of up to 2 billion euros — may be insolvent.
At the root of the problem is the city-state’s culture of financial opacity.
Francis’s efforts to introduce audits, bring in outside experts and cut costs have met with fierce resistance from the Curia, the Vatican’s administrative apparatus.

• Canada to build first G-7 modular nuclear power plant - Bloomberg.

• Bill Gates will close his Gates Foundation in 2045 and give away 99% of his fortune, currently valued at $113 billion.
The foundation, founded in 2000, will spend $200 billion over its remaining 20 years of operation.

• A new Pope has been elected in the Vatican.
He is Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost. The first Pope from the USA under the name Leo XIV.