US stock market news, Germany's military spending growth, UK and Turkey rates

Latest stock market news

• US stocks failed to rally. Another attempt will be made today as quarterly fund rebalancing begins and quarterly options expiration occurs. Could be volatile.
Meanwhile, company earnings and investor reactions to the earnings are becoming increasingly bearish.

• The UK government is to receive another report on its spending-cutting efforts, while Germany, by contrast, will hold a final vote on massive borrowing funding on Friday. The UK government's finance report is set to reveal how deeply the government is in the red as the financial year draws to a close and just days before Chancellor Rachel Reeves's budget update on March 26.

Last week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to “cut through the thicket of bureaucracy” strangling the economy, and the British government abolished NHS England, returning the health service to direct ministerial control.

Reeves has set an ambitious target of balancing daily spending and tax revenues by the 2029-30 financial year and is expected to announce a £9.9 billion ($12.83 billion) fiscal buffer, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing an unnamed source.

• In Germany, on the other hand, investors are celebrating legislation almost certainly passed on Friday to create a 500 billion euro ($542 billion) fund for infrastructure and increased defense spending.

The plan was approved this week in the Bundestag's lower house, giving conservative leader and future chancellor Friedrich Merz a huge boost and investors reason to hope for a recovery in Europe's largest economy.

The bill will go to the upper house of the Bundesrat today, but it looks like it will be passed there.

• Wall Street loses momentum. Meanwhile, in broader markets, Wall Street's optimism earlier this week, fueled by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's view that the economy was in good shape and tariff-related price increases would be temporary, appears to have faded.

Treasuries and the dollar are rising, pointing to a broader risk-off trend, as is gold, which has already soared 16% this year to record highs.

• Trump Media (DJT) managers launch SPAC that will buy up various crypto companies - Forbes
China's Geely reported a 215% increase in net profit in Q4 2024

• EU closes door to US in massive defence plan US arms makers have been left out of a massive new EU defence plan, according to details of EU and allied defence funding released - POLITICO.

• US threats to shut down Ukrainian F-16s have backfired. Several countries have cancelled orders for 350 Lockheed Martin (LMT) jets scheduled for production through 2031, costing the company $35 billion in losses.

• Google Wallet will allow children to make contactless payments on their own. In the next few weeks, an update will be released for Google Wallet that will allow children to make contactless payments in stores using their Android devices. Previously, children (it seems the ban was for those under 14) were prohibited from linking their cards to the e-wallet and making payments.

• EU probes Chinese carmaker in Hungary The European Commission is investigating whether BYD received excessive subsidies from Beijing.

• Nvidia (NVDA) plans to invest more than $100 billion to expand its manufacturing operations in the U.S. The company plans to expand over the next four years.

• Tether became the 7th largest buyer of US Treasury bonds in 2024. The company owns $33.1 billion, ranking alongside entire nations.

• Windtree Therapeutics (WINT) shares rose more than 39% after announcing a licensing agreement with Evofem Biosciences (EVFM) to supply the hormone-free contraceptive gel PHEXXI.
Windtree will serve as a supply partner, leveraging its manufacturing relationships to reduce costs and improve profitability of PHEXXI. Evofem will retain ownership and continue commercialization efforts globally.

• CoreWeave (CRWV), an Nvidia-backed AI hyperscaler startup, is preparing for a U.S. IPO at a potential valuation of up to $26 billion.
The offering includes more than 47 million shares of Class A common stock with an expected price range of $47-$55 per share. The company aims to raise up to $2.7 billion.

• Eli Lilly (LLY) has launched its weight-loss and diabetes drug Mounjaro in India. The drug aims to combat rising obesity rates in the country and is available in single-dose vials.

• When you compare Tesla's capital expenditure over the last six months of 2024 with the valuation of the assets it was spent on, it turns out $1.4bn was wasted - FT. That's a figure big enough to matter even for Tesla, and it comes as attention returns to the group's fundamentals as its fully diluted market valuation has fallen from $1.7tn to below $800bn.

• PDD Holdings (PDD) reported mixed financial results, with fourth-quarter revenue of $15.15 billion, $860 million short of estimates despite 24% year-over-year growth. The company's earnings per share beat expectations, highlighting strong growth in its online marketing and transaction services businesses.

• OptiNose (OPTN) shares soared 53% in pre-market trading after the company agreed to be acquired by Paratek Pharmaceuticals for $330 million.
The deal includes a significant premium to OptiNose's stock price and includes contingent value rights tied to sales milestones of its lead product, Xhance, which recently expanded its market reach.

• iPhone without a charging port: The EU has allowed Apple (AAPL) to produce gadgets without connectors, - 9TOMac. Apple has found a way to circumvent the Lightning ban - now iPhones can be without connectors at all, charging only via MagSafe.

• Apple is losing more than $1 billion a year on its streaming service - Information.
The tech giant spent more than $5 billion a year on content since the launch of Apple TV+ in 2019, but cut that spending by about $500 billion last year, the report said.

• Oil rises as US tightens sanctions on Iranian oil.

OPEC+ has agreed on a new plan for compensatory cuts that will be in effect until June 2026.
The monthly cuts will range from 189,000 to 435,000 barrels per day.

• Microchip Technology (MCHP) has decided to sell its Arizona manufacturing facility. Microchip Technology announced that it has engaged Macquarie Group to facilitate the sale of its manufacturing facility.

• Nestle will sell two factories in Germany, citing rising costs, Nestle said in a statement on its website.

• Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Gives Weak 2025 Sales Guidance Shoe Carnival shares fell Thursday after the retailer's fourth-quarter sales and fiscal 2025 outlook fell short of analysts' estimates.

• MU shares are up 1% premarket after the report. They initially rose 5%, but then gave back almost all of their gains.
The company beat expectations and gave a good forecast.

• FDX shares fall 6% in premarket trading after earnings. The company cut its earnings forecast for the third straight quarter, saying it reflected “weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy.” Weak demand continues to weigh on FedEx’s high-margin corporate freight volumes.
The company lowered its EPS and revenue forecasts, even suggesting a possible revenue decline in fiscal 2025.

• NKE shares fall 5% in premarket trading after earnings report. The company beat expectations but gave a weak outlook.

• BofA: “We believe signs of product success will be the single most important catalyst for investors to re-engage with the stock.”

• LEN shares fall 3% in premarket trading after the report.

• Nvidia held its first Quantum Day during its annual conference.
The heads of quantum companies IONQ (-9%), QBTS (-18%) and RGTI (-9%) spoke. Without any major announcements or clear timelines for deployment, the stocks of these companies fell sharply.

• ACN shares fell 7% yesterday. The company beat expectations and raised its guidance.
However, new orders fell 3% from a year earlier to $20.9 billion in the quarter. Concerns about a reduction in federal funding weighed on the shares.

• Policymakers around the world struck a cautious note in a week filled with central bank meetings as uncertainty over the global economy and politics grew. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England kept rates on hold.

Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- DATA: UK government finances (February), eurozone current account (January), eurozone consumer sentiment (March, preliminary), Canadian retail sales (February).
- SPEAKERS: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, New York Fed President John Williams, the European Central Bank's Jose Luis Escriva at an event in Barcelona.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• BoE Interest Rate Decision rate decision expected unchanged at 4.50%.
- Inflation expected to peak at 3.75% in Q3 2025 vs. 3.7% forecast in February.
- GDP slightly stronger than expected in February, but surveys point to weak growth, especially for employment plans.
- Monetary policy to remain tight for quite some time.
- Rates on gradual path to neutral range.

• Latest US Labor Market and Economic Activity Data
Unemployment Claims = 223K (exp. 224K/ pop. 221K est.)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) = 12.5 (exp. 8.8/ pop. 18.1)
US
Existing Home Sales (Feb) = 4.26M (exp. 3.95M/ pop. 4.09M est.)

• The Central Bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised the key rate from 42.5% to 46%
/ Protecting the lira from devaluation.

• The US should deal with the Russian Federation because it has the largest territory and very valuable land - Trump.

• Lagarde: Disinflation process is on track.
Rate decision will depend on incoming data.
Trump tariffs could reduce Eurozone GDP growth by 0.3% in 2025.

• Turkey says it has secured an extension to US sanctions on Russian gas - Bloomberg.
Turkey will continue to buy Russian natural gas until May.

• Canada negotiates with EU to join defense project to produce weapons - NYT
If the agreement is concluded, Canada will be able to offer its production facilities for the creation of European weapons, in particular the Saab Gripen fighter jet - a competitor to the American F-35.