US Presidential Election Day 2024 - Top Market News of the Month, Company News and Geopolitics
Stock market news
• Election Day has finally arrived, ending a bitter campaign sparked by the assassination attempts on Donald Trump and the replacement of Kamala Harris with Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. Markets have outwardly shown resilience in the final stretch, with dealing desks reporting that investors have reduced risk and adopted a wait-and-see attitude.
• Amid an eerie calm, Australia's central bank left interest rates unchanged as expected and Knight's Choice won the Melbourne Cup. Oil has been the market's main driver in recent days, gaining almost 3% on Monday after OPEC+ said it would delay a planned output hike for a second time.
• US opinion polls point to an incredibly close race and gambling markets have seen odds tighten in recent days, leading to a slight drop in financial market bets on a Trump victory or Republican victories in Congress and the White House.
• Strategists see the dollar rising if Trump wins and falling if he loses, with the exception of Bitcoin, which is expected to rise after Trump wins because he is seen as an advocate of a more relaxed approach to cryptocurrency regulation. Volatility in the offshore yuan against the dollar has reached record highs, illustrating tensions and nervousness over what another protectionist shift by the U.S. would mean for global trade.
• When the results are in, attention will be focused on the swing states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Polls in Georgia close at midnight GMT. The winner may not be known for several days, and Trump has signaled he will try to fight back against any defeat, as he did in 2020.
• Yesterday, the US stock market closed slightly lower. And government bonds rose 1%, slightly weighing down the dollar. Markets are neutral this morning. In Japan and China, stock indices are rising by 1-2%. In China, they are waiting for an announcement of new incentives. Everyone is waiting for the elections.
• World oil prices are rising after OPEC+'s decision to delay production increases. Brent and WTI prices rose more than 2% in a day.
• Trump said that “Bitcoin is not a threat to the dollar, the dollar is threatened by the behavior of this government.” He added that he would fire current SEC chief Harry Gensler.
• Hedge funds focusing on European stock markets suffered their biggest monthly loss in more than a year in October 2024, - Goldman Sachs.
• IKEA to pay €6 million to victims of forced labor in East Germany - CNN. The money will go to a government fund that will issue compensation, according to IKEA Germany CEO Walter Kadner.
• Tesla's deliveries to China fell in October after a record quarter. The U.S. electric carmaker delivered 68,280 Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs last month, down 5.3 percent from a year earlier and 23 percent from September, according to preliminary data released Monday by the China Association of Passenger Automobile Manufacturers.
• Microsoft will raffle off $1 million among those who change Google to Bing. The company wants to increase the attractiveness of its search engine. The main problem is that there are only 6 regions where the raffle is being held: the USA, Puerto Rico, France, Germany, Canada and the UK.
• Constellation Energy (CEG) shares fell 12% amid a broader slide in nuclear power shares. The U.S. government rejected another Big Tech nuclear deal late Friday.
• Talen Energy shares fell 9%, while Sam Altman-backed Oklo (OKLO) fell 8%, Centrus Energy (LEU) fell 19%, NANO Nuclear (NNE) fell 10%, Vistra (VST) fell 4% and NuScale Power (SMR) fell 7%.
• The S&P 500 could continue to rally in the final stretch of 2024, with a 5% gain not out of the question as investors run out of steam after the US presidential election and year-end FOMO sets in, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson.
• Ford Motor Co. on Monday reported that U.S. vehicle sales in October rose about 15% from a year earlier, driven by demand for its F-Series trucks and hybrid models.
• Fintech company FIS' profit grows on strong demand for banking solutions The shift to digital and online banking has significantly increased the demand for FIS' banking and payment solutions.
• Apollo Global Management (APO) expects annual revenue from its asset management and retirement businesses to reach $10 billion by 2029,
driven by investor demand for private loans and annuities.
• U.S. equity funds posted their biggest weekly outflow in five weeks as investors remained cautious ahead of Tuesday's presidential election and the Federal Reserve's policy decision.
• Copper, other metals rise on weak dollar, China stimulus hopes - Bloomberg
• Peloton (PTON) shares rose 9% on Monday after Bank of America analysts upgraded the stock to "buy" from "neutral"
amid optimism about the fitness equipment maker's new leadership.
• The largest ever position on growth in stocks was formed in the US. It reached $300 billion - Goldman Sachs.
• If Trump wins, the US stock market will grow by 2-3% - Goldman Sachs. And if Harris wins, it will fall by 2-3%. The reality may be very different, which is typical for elections.
• Palantir (PLTR) shares are up 14% to $47 after the report, as AI-led growth continues to accelerate. The company's revenue is up 30% y/y and the company has raised its guidance.
• DLTR shares rise 5% as company changes CEO.
• Franklin Templeton reports quarterly loss after hit by Western Asset unit
• Citi hires top dealmaker Jeff Stute from Perella to strengthen healthcare M&A position.
• Commerzbank to buy back reserve shares as it urges investors to stay out of positions.
• Blackstone targets new European markets in global wealth push
• B. Riley falls as Franchise Group bankruptcy warns of further losses
• Thailand's central bank governor's decision delayed; former governors raise concerns over independence
• Australian police raid PwC's Sydney office in connection with tax leak investigation.
• Australia's Westpac's full-year profit fell as costs eclipse margin growth.
• Capital One Warns of Possible CFPB Enforcement Actions on Its Savings Accounts
• Taxpayers cannot pay for 'bank misconduct' - Swiss finance minister
• Trump's victory opens up opportunities to 'buy the dip' in European defence.
• Southwest names aviation veteran Gangwal as chairman of board.
• Loews' third-quarter profit rose sharply on higher investment income.
• US equity funds posted their biggest weekly outflow in five weeks.
• Trump's tariffs will alter trade flows, increase costs and trigger retaliation.
• Ryanair cuts passenger target due to Boeing flight delays, says price falls slow.
• The New York Times is cutting digital subscriptions as it cuts costs.
• Marriott cuts 2024 profit forecast due to weaker domestic tourism demand in the U.S. and China.
• Nvidia and TSMC's market value rose in October amid strong demand for AI chips.
• Futures rise as US survey results and Fed rate decision weigh heavily on markets.
• Fintech company FIS sees profit growth due to high demand for banking solutions.
• Facebook and Nvidia ask the US Supreme Court to clear them of securities fraud lawsuits.
• Nvidia and TSMC's market value rose in October amid strong demand for AI chips.
• The EU will assess whether Apple's iPad OS complies with the bloc's technical rules.
• Russia will launch two Iranian satellites on November 5, Tehran's representative in Moscow said.
• Nvidia's Huang asked SK Hynix to speed up delivery of HBM4 chips by 6 months, SK chairman says
• French families are suing TikTok over its alleged failure to remove harmful content.
• ADNOC UAE to apply autonomous AI in energy sector for the first time.
• Foxconn subsidiary seeks US$80 million investment to produce integrated circuits in Vietnam.
• US tech companies warn that a planned law in Vietnam will hamper data centres and social media.
Stocks morning after
HIMS report +9%
VRTX +2%
AIG +1%
FANG -2%
ILMN -2%
NXPI -6%
MQ -32%
Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- US elections.
Fundamental news
• U.S. factory orders fell for a second straight month in September, down 0.5% after a downwardly revised 0.8% drop in August.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% drop in factory orders, after a 0.2% decline in August.
First-time buyers in the U.S. have made up 24% of all buyers this year, the lowest since 1981, according to the National Association of Realtors' 2024 Home Buyer and Seller Profile.• Iran preparing 'massive' attack on Israel - WSJ. According to the publication, Tehran plans to use not only missiles and drones, but also the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the regular army.
• Orban said the EU would be forced to reconsider its support for Ukraine if Trump wins. The Hungarian prime minister said Europe “cannot bear the burden of war alone” under President Trump. Orban opposes military aid to Ukraine and has made clear that Trump shares his views and will negotiate a peace settlement for Ukraine.
• China has begun pushing wealthy individuals and companies to check their tax liabilities, with tax inspections and “self-audits” required to shore up local budgets hit by the property slump. The Standing Committee of China’s upper house of parliament is set to meet this week, and the government may approve major spending initiatives to boost growth amid the country’s struggling property sector.
Xinhua reported that lawmakers have revised legislation to raise local government debt ceilings to replace existing hidden debts, part of a process of debt swaps to address financial woes.
• Elon Musk will become an “influential friend” of Xi Jinping if Trump wins the election - Bloomberg. Musk is very interested in the Chinese market, because his company has received tax breaks rare for a foreign investor, and since the summer, Tesla electric cars have been included in the Chinese government procurement plan for the first time.
• European officials are preparing for a possible "rupture in transatlantic relations" with the United States if Donald Trump wins a second presidential election there - The Washington Post.
• "The French need to work more" - the country's finance minister. French Finance Minister Antoine Armand stressed that the French work less than their colleagues in Europe, which is damaging to the economy due to lower tax contributions and social benefits.
• South Korea is considering a plan to increase energy imports from the United States if Donald Trump wins the election and increases pressure on trading partners - Bloomberg.
• A representative of the DPRK informed the UN Security Council about the country's buildup of its nuclear forces. Can the DPRK be considered an official possessor of nuclear weapons after this? Or is the UN, as has become customary, not interested in this?