US-EU 15% Tariff Agreement, Stock Market News, and Geopolitics
Latest stock market news
• Following the news of the US-EU deal and the continuation of US-China negotiations, US stock index futures are growing by an average of 0.5%.
Bitcoin is approaching $120,000 again, and Ethereum has updated its local maximum of $3,888.
Overall, everything is calm. Ahead is the Fed meeting, US labor market data and a big reporting week. In addition, the holiday season is becoming increasingly active.
• We may hear a lot about the art of the deal this week. With the deadline for US tariffs on the global economy approaching later this week, it is the EU's turn to announce a trade deal with the White House, albeit one that will benefit the US.
The deal cuts the base tariff on most European imports to 15%, down from the Trump administration’s previous threat of 30%, and commits the EU to invest about $600 billion in the United States. As Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore, puts it: “The 15% tariff was a welcome surprise as it is half of what the US had threatened to impose on the EU, and it raises hopes that other major US trading partners will soon be able to strike similar deals.”
• The deal appears to be similar to the agreement struck between the US and Japan last week, and shows a trend toward unilateral investment in exchange for lower tariffs. It could offer a hint of what to expect as talks with other major economies such as China, South Korea and Taiwan have stalled.
Investors have welcomed the deal, which will avoid a trade war. The new U.S. tariff rate on EU goods will apply to drugs and pharmaceuticals, as well as cars, which were the bloc’s biggest exports to the U.S. last year. Aircraft and their components, the next-largest segment, will be subject to zero-to-zero tariffs, although the U.S. will retain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum. Investors have welcomed the trade deal, which will avoid a trade war and could provide clarity for companies.
• Pan-regional futures rose 1%, with German DAX futures up 1% and FTSE futures up 0.5%. U.S. stock futures rose 0.4% after the deal, putting the S&P 500 on track for a sixth straight day of gains and a potential new high.
• Heineken's earnings will dominate Monday's earnings call as the world's second-largest brewer counts the cost of the tariffs. But the company's shares are likely to benefit from a recently struck framework agreement, as well as from automakers and pharmaceuticals in the region.
• Your personal data transmitted to ChatGPT can be used in court, - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman
People discuss a lot of personal issues with ChatGPT. And now, if you discuss something like that with a doctor, a lawyer, or a therapist, there is a principle of confidentiality. There is medical confidentiality, there is attorney-client confidentiality. And with ChatGPT, we don’t have a clear understanding yet of how this is supposed to work.
• Bezos has sold $5.7 billion in AMZN shares since late June,
and is rumored to be eyeing a takeover of CNBC.
• Goldman Sachs warns that the short-term rally may be ending.
The market has previously seen strong gains in high-risk, fundamentally weak stocks, a typical sign of mass short-covering. But these moves have now become so large that we may already be in the late stages of this process.
• Chinese scientists have learned to create disks with a capacity of 360 terabytes.
To create them, they used the technology of “multidimensional glass storage” - a laser writes information directly into a quartz disk and creates nanostructures in which the information is stored. They plan to set up production by the end of this year.
• Strive Asset Management CEO Vivek Ramaswamy on why his company adopted the BTC standard:
“Because it’s a billion-dollar $$$ opportunity.”
Ramaswamy, a former associate of Musk’s at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), explained.
Spot BTC ETF Inflows Have Slowed, But Total Inflows Still Near Record Levels - Farside
CryptoQuant: The Current Rally in BTC Isn’t Fueled by Retail Investors, It’s Continued Heavy Inflation by Institutions and Corporates
• JPMorgan warns of growing complacency in global markets outside the US.
Despite stock indexes at record levels, earnings revisions remain overwhelmingly negative.
JPMorgan analysts believe the market will either enter a phase of upward revisions or face a wave of volatility and a possible correction.
• Trading in penny stocks is now at an all-time high - Goldman Sachs
• Charter Spectrum (CHTR, -18.5%) is losing subscribers, sending the stock through its worst day ever
The selloff also spread to Charter peers like Comcast (-4.8%) and Altice USA (-9.2%).
Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- Earnings: Heineken, Wise, EssilorLuxottica
- UK data: CBI distribution deals for July
- Bond auctions: France 3m, 7m, 9m and 1yr
Current Fundamental Reviews
• The US and EU agreed on a trade deal.
The EU agreed to:
Purchase $750 billion in energy (instead of buying gas, oil and nuclear fuel from Russia from the US - it will be interesting to see what Slovakia and Hungary will say).
Invest $600 billion in the US in addition to existing investments.
Open the countries' markets to trade with the US at zero tariffs.
Purchase a significant amount of military equipment.
• China and US to extend tariff pause for another 90 days - SCMP
An extension of the "tariff truce" is expected at talks in Stockholm, which begin tomorrow. The previous tariff freeze was in May and was due to expire on August 12.
Following talks in Geneva and London, the two countries have reached a "status quo": the US will impose a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, and China will respond with a 10% tariff on top of the tariffs in place before Trump's second term.
"We can now move on to other issues aimed at rebalancing the economic relationship," Bessent said.
• Trump: Thailand, Cambodia ready to meet for talks.
Representatives from the two countries agreed to “quickly develop a cease-fire plan,” Trump wrote.
The fighting, now in its fourth day, has killed at least 33 people and displaced more than 168,000.
• Kamala and everyone who received support money broke the law. They should all be held accountable! - Trump
• 70% of US citizens believe that Donald Trump's "Big and Beautiful" budget bill will only benefit the rich - WSJ poll
At least half of respondents also answered that the project will harm the poor and socially vulnerable groups.
/ In the US, trust in both Democrats and Republicans is falling. And how is Musk doing with the new party? Traded for peace with Trump?
• China has strengthened its position and is looking for big concessions from the US in a new round of trade talks - CNN
Beijing's tight grip on strategic minerals has forced the Trump administration to lift some restrictions on exports to China, including even lifting a ban on the sale of a key AI chip to Nvidia.
• Latnik: Bessent will discuss sanctions against Russia at a meeting with China.
“I will never be the same again after what I learned.”
• FBI deputy director posts cryptic message amid Epstein scandal
Dan Bongino is a former Secret Service agent who protected US presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He became deputy director of the FBI under Trump – and now he has caused a stir with a cryptic online post.
• I think J.D. Vance would be a great candidate if he decided he wanted to do it
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on who he sees as the best Republican candidate for the 2028 presidential election.
• The Russian Federation cannot be excluded from the EU thermonuclear reactor project.
This is stated in the response of the European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen to a request from members of the European Parliament. This concerns the construction of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) in France - the world's largest scientific development in the field of controlled thermonuclear fusion.
• Orban proposes to "reform" the EU, otherwise it "faces collapse" - DW.
Until we get what belongs to us, there will be no new budget.
We will bring this money home and will not make concessions on issues of sovereignty, - Orban on the vote for the new EU budget.
• Serbia will not impose sanctions against Russia, - Vucic. Earlier, the media reported that Minister Starovic said that Belgrade could join the sanctions if it received guarantees of admission to the EU.
• The European Parliament is considering proposals to accelerate the EU’s transition away from Russian gas and curtail imports as early as January 2027, rather than by the end of 2027, as previously planned — RTRS.
• Since May, the number of failures in the operation of satellite navigation systems in the Baltic Sea, particularly in its German part, has been growing.
This significantly increases the risk of grounding and collisions.
Cases of "spoofing" have been recorded - due to manipulation of GPS signals, the captain of the vessel gets the impression that he is in the wrong place.
Swedish experts believe that the failures are not accidental: "There is much to indicate that the Russian Federation is behind this."
• Austria is ready to discuss joining NATO and abandoning neutrality because of the Russian Federation.
• German Economy Minister Katerina Reiche said that early retirement at 63 should be abolished and the threshold gradually raised to 70.
There can be nothing good about working “two-thirds of your adult life and spending the remaining third in retirement.” “Unfortunately, too many people have ignored the demographic situation for too long. We will have to work more and longer,” the minister stated.
• A 50-year-old American woman helped North Korean hackers secretly get jobs at hundreds of US companies.
According to the department, she helped North Korean IT specialists get jobs at 309 US companies, including Fortune 500 corporations.
The woman was supposed to manage a “laptop farm” — equipment that she received from employers so that they thought the work was being done in the US. Access programs were installed on the laptops so that they could be controlled remotely by North Korean citizens.
• Israel has begun airdropping humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip,
a change in policy for the blockaded enclave where much of the population is on the brink of starvation.
The airdrops, the first carried out directly by Israel since the 2023 war, included seven pallets of flour, sugar and canned goods - FT.
• Turkey is facing severe forest fires due to abnormal heat.
They started in the eastern resort province of Antalya, but are now rapidly approaching residential buildings in another resort city, Bursa.
• EU airports set to scrap 100ml liquid limits thanks to new scanning technologies.
According to the European Commission, advanced explosive detection systems have already been successfully tested and approved by the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) in June 2025.
• The US will have to spend $934 million to upgrade a Boeing 747-8 donated by Qatar — NYT.
The funds were taken from the budget allocated for the Sentinel nuclear program, which is aimed at upgrading America's outdated land-based nuclear missiles.
• Germany is experiencing a boom in the shadow economy. People can work illegally while receiving assistance.
The share of the shadow economy in Germany’s GDP has grown by more than 11% in just one year. In 2024, its volume was estimated at 482 billion euros, which is higher than the entire federal budget of Germany. According to economist Friedrich Schneider, working illegally is a “tax revolt of ordinary people.”
“Childlessness tax” in Germany
Germany has a financial mechanism that effectively “punishes” childless people — formally, it is not called a tax, but the essence remains the same. The country has a state insurance system for the need to care for the elderly or sick (Pflegeversicherung). Most adult residents of Germany pay contributions to it.
Since January 2025, the general basic contribution has been 3.6% of the salary. And if the resident does not have children, then he additionally pays another 0.6% (called Kinderlosenzuschlag), a total of 4.2%. This difference may seem small, but over the years of working life it turns into significant amounts. Moreover, this “additional fee” of 0.6% is paid exclusively by the insured employee himself - the employer does not participate in this.