US employment data and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, company news and geopolitics
Latest stock market news
• U.S. jobs data and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech are likely to be the main events in markets on Friday as investors try to sort out the confusion surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's rapidly changing trade policy. Investor sentiment about the U.S. economy and markets ahead of Friday's two events is gloomy, and the longer the gloom persists, the higher the bar for overcoming it becomes.
• The nonfarm payrolls report is likely to show a gain of 160,000 jobs in February, following a gain of 143,000 in January, according to a Reuters poll of economists, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.0%. But the risk is small, especially given the rash of data recently that has defied market estimates.
• The stock market fell again - by 2% on average. Only the defensive sectors XLP and XLV looked better than the market. But XLE was also in the plus. And XLU suffered from the growth of US government bond yields.
Sell-offs in the European government bond market after promises of large-scale fiscal stimulus measures affected the global market. And the growth of yields in Europe caused the euro to strengthen.
Everything is calm on futures in the morning.
And only Bitcoin fell again to $87 thousand, since hopes for buying up crypto at the expense of the US Treasury collapsed.
Due to the growth of yields, gold is consolidating just above $2900.
Important data on the US labor market for February will be released today.
And later in the evening, Fed Chairman Powell will speak.
The day promises to be sporty.
• Global growth concerns are back in the spotlight in financial markets as if they had ever gone away, as trade tensions weigh on consumer confidence and business activity.
• Fed funds futures now point to three more interest rate cuts by year-end, and a big dip in wages or unemployment figures could prompt traders to raise rates.
With Powell scheduled to speak just hours after the data is released, he can provide a real-time assessment of how the numbers might impact the central bank's interest rate forecasts.
Fed officials have already sounded the alarm about a weakening U.S. economy, although Governor Christopher Waller said he was strongly opposed to cutting at a policy meeting this month.
• A global bond sell-off triggered by Germany's huge spending plans showed signs of easing as bond futures and French OAT futures jumped. Bond prices move inversely with yields. European stock futures pointed to a negative open, although Wall Street futures rose, poised to reverse the decline that began on Thursday after the Nasdaq confirmed it was in a correction since December.
• Investors are rethinking their approach to Trump's policies, given that the so-called "Trump put" option that has supported stock market prices may be weakening and his administration is focusing more attention on debt markets.
In the latest policy twist, the US president decided on Thursday to suspend the 25% tariffs he imposed this week on most goods from Canada and Mexico.
• Japanese bond yields hit 16-year high - FT
• Global bond sell-off intensifies as Germany weighs on markets. Borrowing costs in Germany are rising, as are those across the eurozone and Japan.
• Trump's World Liberty Financial purchased $21.5 million worth of ETH, WBTC, and MOVE ahead of the White House crypto summit.
Cardano founder not invited to White House crypto summit.
Charles Hoskinson also said he was unaware of Trump's plans to include $ADA in the strategic reserve.
• Republicans introduce bill aimed at stopping the “debanking” of crypto companies - WSJ.
Supporters of the bill argue that federal regulators have abused reputational risk issues to advance political agendas against legitimate businesses, negatively impacting industries like cryptocurrencies.
• The CEOs of HP (HPQ), Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM) and Qualcomm (QCOM) are scheduled to meet with Trump on Monday.
• Tesla Japan (TSLA) will stop production of the Japan-bound Model S and Model X on March 31. After April 1, sales of these models will be limited to in-stock and used vehicles only.
• Shares of French Starlink competitor Eutelsat soar 500% on Ukraine, Business Insider reports. The gain values the company at $4.02 billion.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: The duty deferral will likely not only apply to automakers, but will also apply to all products covered by USMCA.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) shares fell 20% after the semiconductor company's fourth-quarter results and guidance failed to impress investors despite being in line with forecasts.
• Analysts noted that the current environment requires more than just meeting expectations. The company's AI revenue is projected to exceed $2.5 billion by fiscal 2026, but concerns remain about its next-generation program with Amazon. Rival Broadcom (AVGO) also suffered losses, falling 6%.
• Tesla (TSLA) announced plans to build a new megafactory in Texas, near Houston, as part of its expansion of battery production.
The project involves significant upgrades, including a $150 million investment in manufacturing equipment. Despite the developments, Tesla shares fell 6%.
Tesla car sales are falling around the world amid growing discontent with the political activities of CEO Elon Musk.
• Quantum computing stocks including Rigetti Computing (RGTI) were hit after
Rigetti Computing’s (RGTI) fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.
RGTI reported a 32.8% year-over-year revenue decline, sending its stock price down 12.3%. Despite the disappointing results, analysts expressed optimism about Rigetti’s roadmap and financial stability through 2027.
But RGTI shares rose 4%. Investors here aren’t buying into the idea of quick profits.
Other quant stocks such as IonQ (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) fell 10% and 7%, respectively.
• Zscaler (ZS) shares rose 3% after the cloud security company raised its fiscal year guidance and beat second-quarter estimates. Analysts remain bullish, calling Zscaler a top cybersecurity investor through 2025. The company raised its price target, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory.
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has entered into a strategic partnership with EYSA, integrating its software to enhance mobile applications. The three-year agreement aims to leverage Palantir’s AI capabilities to create new business opportunities and improve operational efficiency across all EYSA businesses.
• Alibaba (BABA) unveiled its QwQ-32B AI model, which boasts performance on par with rivals like DeepSeek’s R1 despite its smaller parameters. The announcement comes as Alibaba has committed to investing $52 billion in cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years. The company’s shares surged on the news.
• Kroger (KR) shares rose 2% as better-than-expected earnings offset soft guidance.
• Macy's (M) shares fell 1% as the company missed sales growth targets and warned of a profit decline.
Tariffs and an uncertain outlook are likely to offset same-store sales gains.
• JD.com (JD) sales rose the most in years as Beijing's policies helped support consumer spending in China.
• Trump signs executive order to create strategic bitcoin reserve and separate digital asset vault for cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin
But that’s not what the crypto industry ultimately wants.
The bitcoin reserve would be funded by coins seized in criminal or civil cases, while the secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce are authorized to develop budget-neutral strategies for purchasing additional bitcoin, “provided that those strategies do not impose additional costs on the American taxpayer.”
The gold reserve, which is held by the Federal Reserve for the U.S. Treasury, was formed following the forced redemption of gold coins and bullion from Americans under Roosevelt’s executive order in January 1933.
It’s unlikely that the U.S. government will take the measure of forcibly confiscating crypto from Americans now. But other nations should think about the purity of their crypto.
• WBA shares are up 6% in premarket trading to $11.2. The company is being acquired by private equity firm Sycamore Partners for $23.7 billion.
The deal is priced at $11.45 per share in cash, up 29% from the closing price on Dec. 9, before media reports of the potential deal first surfaced. The cash portion represents $10 billion of the total deal price.
Shareholders will also receive up to $3 per share in cash, representing the future sale of debt and the company's equity stake in VillageMD, bringing the total valuation to $23.7 billion.
• HPE shares are down 20% after the report. The server and software company will begin a cost-cutting program that will reduce its total headcount by about 5%, or about 2,500 people, over the next 12 to 18 months.
• GAP shares rise 19% after earnings. The company said it is “reviving” its brands (Old Navy, Banana Republic, Gap), which promises stronger sales this year despite tariffs.
“Brand campaigns and collaborations are bringing a new generation to Gap while strengthening the brand among those who have loved us for years.”
• COST shares fall 1% after earnings. The membership-club warehouse retailer reported mixed second-quarter results and warned shoppers could remain “choosy” amid high prices and tariffs.
Same-store sales rose 6.8%, beating estimates of 6.4%. E-commerce sales jumped 20.9%.
The company’s CEO said the tariff environment was “very volatile.” But the company has the resources to change how it sources products to avoid being impacted. And that other retailers are unlikely to be spared. “When it rains, it rains on everyone.”
• AVGO shares rise 13% after earnings. The software and semiconductor company, which has been riding the AI wave with its specialized integrated circuits and more, reported better-than-expected results.
“We think it was a strong quarter that should ease growing investor concerns about a potential slowdown in AI spending and potential growth in AI chip demand,” Edward Jones analyst said.
Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls (February)
- Several Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, speak
- Trump tariff headlines
Current Fundamental Reviews
• The ECB has predictably cut its key interest rate from 2.90% to 2.65%
The ECB is reducing its expectations for economic growth due to weak exports, low investment, and high risks in trade and general policy:
- GDP growth forecast: 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026;
- Core inflation forecast: 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026;
- Headline inflation: 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026;
Monetary policy is becoming less tight - cheaper loans stimulate borrowing and economic activity.
• Fresh U.S. Labor Market and Trade Activity Data
- Unemployment Claims = 221K (exp. 234K/pop. 242K)
- Nonfarm Productivity = 1.5% (pt. 1.2%/ pop. 2.2%)
- Unit Labor Costs = 2.2% (pt. 3.0%/ pop. 0.8%)
- Trade Balance = -131.40B (pt. -128.30B/ pop. -98.10B adjusted)
The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record in January amid a surge in imports ahead of tariffs, suggesting trade could weigh on economic growth in the first half of the year
The Atlanta Fed improved its Q1 GDP estimate from -2.8% to -2.4%
• Harker (Fed):
- Because of all the uncertainty, we don't want to move too fast;
- The economy looks good overall, but there are threats;
- I'm increasingly worried about factors that could threaten the dollar's reserve currency status;
- I'm concerned that the reduction in inflationary pressures is in jeopardy;
- Business and consumer confidence is weakening, and that's not good;
- I'm increasingly concerned about the state of the government deficit.
Congressman Thomas Massie Reintroduces Bill to Abolish the Fed
"Americans would be better off if the Federal Reserve didn't exist. The Fed is debasing our currency by monetizing debt, causing inflation."
• Turkey wants to be part of a new European security architecture if NATO weakens - Financial Times, citing Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
According to him, US actions, in particular pressure on Ukraine to cease fire and statements about reducing America's involvement in European security, are "a signal for Europe to unite and create its own center of gravity."
• The EU is urgently negotiating with the Trump administration to increase supplies of American LNG - Politico. The reason is the failure of the attempt to abandon Russian energy sources.
• China's Commerce Minister: "There are no winners in a trade war. If the US takes the wrong path, we will follow them to the end."
"We are exploring more targeted and effective stimulus measures. Interest subsidies on consumer loans in key areas will be provided."
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China would continue to take measures in response to the US's "arbitrary tariffs" and accused Washington of "meeting good with evil."
"No country should fantasize that it can suppress China and at the same time maintain good relations with China. "
On Ukraine:
"All parties must learn lessons from the crisis."
"Among other things, security should be mutual and equal, and no country should base its security on the danger of another." [Apparently, this is a reproach about Ukraine's desire to join NATO].
On Taiwan: "Taiwan has never been a country and will never be one in the future."
On Russia: relations between China and Russia are stronger than ever.
• Second judge blocks Trump's massive federal funding freeze
Trump:
I don't even look at the [stock] market.
The globalists are behind the stock market selloff.
I'm going to Saudi Arabia. They've agreed to a big investment.
• White House: US may cut tariffs on Canada, Mexico if there is progress on fentanyl
• Deutsche Bank on a major reform of German government borrowing: Germany has announced plans for one of the biggest changes to its fiscal regime in post-war history, the only comparable event perhaps being reunification 35 years ago.
Everything you knew about Germany's economic outlook three months ago, or even three weeks ago, should be thrown out the window and you should start your analysis with a clean slate.
• Israel's new Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir has declared 2025 the year of war with Gaza and Iran - The Jerusalem Post.
At the same time, the Israeli army will also monitor the situation in other areas.
• The Irish government has approved changes to legislation that will allow the deployment of special forces (Army Ranger Wing, ARW) to Ukraine - The Irish Times.