U.S. Tariff Fallout, Semiconductor Stocks Fall, Corporate and Geopolitical Events

Latest stock market news

• The stock market lost some of its luster yesterday. And that's disappointing for investors who were hoping for a continuation of Monday's rally.
Interestingly, the professional media is flooded with negative news about the stock market, rather than optimistic ones. Perhaps this flood will break the dam and stocks will still fall.
The weakest link now is semiconductors. However, yesterday, sector leaders XLC and XLF also fell. Let's watch the PLTR rocket.
Everything is calm on the markets this morning.

• From economic data to corporate earnings, the expected impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs is finally here for all to see, but stock investors don't seem too worried. Data showed the U.S. services sector began to slow in July amid further employment declines and the biggest rise in input costs in nearly three years. Coupled with Friday's shocking jobs report, that has reignited fears of stagflation and put the Federal Reserve in a tough spot.

• U.S. financial results, while generally upbeat in the second quarter, are starting to show a clearer impact from tariffs. Caterpillar warned that U.S. tariffs could cost it up to $1.5 billion this year, and Taco Bell parent Yum Brands warned of higher costs and lower consumer demand.

Even shares of Advanced Micro Devices, a maker of artificial intelligence chips, reported disappointing data center revenue, sending its shares down 6.6% in after-hours trading.

That's one reason why stock markets have grown cautious: Investors are caught in a battle between continued high incomes and tariffs. Judging by the impressive rally in stocks following the U.S. jobs data, it looks like buying the dip still makes sense.

• OpenAI ShareSale: In another big news story of the day, OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is in early talks about a possible secondary share sale, valuing the company at around $500 billion, according to Reuters.

• In Asia, most stocks fell, but Japan and Australia outperformed, rising about 0.6%. Wall Street futures rebounded from earlier losses, with Nasdaq futures up 0.1% and S&P 500 futures up 0.2%. European stock futures are set to open higher, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.3%.

Exchange rates were little changed and the dollar struggled to recover from a decline caused by Friday's job growth. All eyes were on Trump's nominee to head the Federal Reserve Board.

• Trump said a decision would be made by the end of the week, while ruling out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a candidate to replace current Secretary Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.

• The Treasury market is preparing for an auction of $42 billion in 10-year notes after a three-year auction on Tuesday fell short.

• Indian stocks brace for volatility on Trump tariff threat - BBG
The Indian rupee hit a new record low against the US dollar amid Trump's tariff threats.

• The White House is preparing an executive order that would impose fines on banks for terminating service to customers for political reasons, including conservatives and crypto companies, — WSJ.

• Trump accused JP Morgan and Bank of America of discriminating against him.
Against this backdrop, bank shares fell by an average of 1% yesterday.

• Wall Street's largest brokerage firms are warning clients of growing risks of a stock market decline, - Bloomberg.

• Central banks purchased another 166.5 tons of gold in Q2 2025, 41% more than the 2010–2021 average.
In total for the first half of the year, the figure is already 415 tons, the third-largest volume in history. Demand will remain high: 95% of regulators expect further growth in gold reserves.

• In July, insiders at just 151 S&P 500 companies bought their own shares,
the lowest level since at least 2018.

• Tesla and Musk are being sued for concealing Robotaxi safety risks.
Shareholders have filed a lawsuit accusing them of securities fraud for concealing the risks of self-driving cars, specifically Robotaxi.
The lawsuit comes after tests in June in which self-driving cars exhibited dangerous behavior, including speeding, braking abruptly, and making risky maneuvers.

• Google launches Genie 3 AI model capable of generating interactive environments in real time.

• According to insiders, there is only one month left until the key launches of the iPhone 17.
• September 9 - official announcement and presentation
• September 12 - start of pre-orders
• September 19 - start of retail sales

• Despite the GENIUS Act ban on stablecoin interest payments, Coinbase and PayPal continue to offer rewards on USDC and PYUSD, - Decrypt
Both companies say they are not issuers and that rewards are paid through platform revenue sharing, not interest rates, and are therefore not subject to the ban.

• The SEC has issued interim accounting guidance allowing certain fully dollar-backed stablecoins to be classified as cash equivalents.

• AWS has integrated TON (The Open Network). Now analysts and developers can explore transactions, NFTs, DEX activity and tokens in a structured format for free. The data is generated by the TON-ETL project and updated daily by TON Studio via AWS services (Athena, RDS, EKS).

• Nvidia now has 76-78% of its employees as millionaires, with about half of them worth over $25 million.
The data is the result of a survey of 10% of employees (3,000 out of 30,000).

• Toyota and Honda forecast profit decline on tariffs, yen strength, Reuters
Analysts forecast a 31% drop in Toyota's operating profit and a 36% drop for Honda, making it Toyota's worst quarter in two years.
However, the yen weakened again in July, so the market reaction may be calmer.

• Oil fell to July lows as
markets await clarity from Trump on measures against India and China for buying Russian oil.

• Aramco profits fall for 10th straight quarter on weak oil - BBG
US tariff policy has had limited impact on global oil demand, consumption continues to grow - Saudi Aramco CEO.

• Shares of European companies that missed earnings expectations are falling the most this quarter, according to Goldman research.

• Morgan Stanley raised its target price on PLTR to $155 from $98, leaving its rating at “Equalweight.”
Analysts are impressed with the Q2 results, citing Palantir’s unique capabilities in data integration, building AI ontologies, automating workflows, and efficiently implementing solutions into production.
PLTR shares rose 8% yesterday after the report to a new all-time high of $176.

• Private capital is losing momentum. In the first quarter, the volume of attraction fell by 35% y/y, and private lending could show the worst year since 2018, - Bloomberg.

• For the first time in 6 years, OpenAI has released two interesting free models in open source.
Which can be installed on a home computer.

• Elon Musk's xAI launched Grok Imagine, an image and video generator with a "spicy" mode.
SuperGrok subscribers ($30/month) were given the opportunity to create "explicit" images and videos.

• Durov: The first public company investing in TON has appeared on the US stock exchange — VERB shares.
The company will change its name to TON Strategy.
Current Mcap is $27 million.
According to Durov, the company will invest $558 million in Toncoin and will increase its positions. TON has already become the economic basis of Telegram, it is used for advertising, payments and NFT.
/ Lottery ticket or trash?

• Chinese companies choose the US for IPOs - Reuters.
In the first half of 2025, 36 Chinese companies entered the US stock exchanges, which is already close to the record figure of 64 IPOs for all of 2024.
The vast majority of them are doing so through SPACs - special purpose vehicles for quickly entering the market without the traditional lengthy IPO process.

• PG&E (PCG) has risen 8% in two sessions.
The company has pledged no more dilution to fund its $63 billion investment program, using existing rates and debt to fund it.
It expects new grid projects to even lower customer bills starting in 2027 — despite a likely increase in overall electricity costs in California.

• Intel (INTC, +3.5%) was downgraded to 'BBB' (negative outlook)
by Fitch, citing weak PC demand, intense competition from AMD (AMD) and NXP (NXPI), and heavy capital expenditures on new factories. To regain its rating, Intel needs to increase market share and margins.

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, +1%) is redistributing its portfolio.
It bought back $106 million in Sirius XM (SIRI) shares (the package exceeded 124 million shares), and sold $230 million in DaVita (DVA) shares on the eve of its report.

• Pfizer (PFE, +5%) was a pleasant surprise.
Earnings were $0.78 per share (+$0.21 vs. consensus), revenue was $14.65 billion (+8% YoY). It raised its full-year forecast and confirmed its cost-cutting plan to $4 billion per year from 2027.

• Duke Energy (DUK, 0%) is selling 19.7% of its Florida business to Brookfield (BN) for $6 billion.
The proceeds will be used to increase capital expenditures in Florida and pay down the holding company's debt. Second-quarter profit beat expectations; medium-term outlook remains unchanged.

• Alcon (ALC, -3%) is acquiring STAAR Surgical (STAA) for $28/share (51% premium, deal ≈ $1.5B).
Expected to close in 6-12 months; promises to add to earnings starting in the second year of the acquisition. STAA shares are already up 45%.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT, +18%) raised its 2025 sales forecast to $3.1 billion
after winning a $2.6 billion contract with the US Navy for reactor modules.
In Q2, revenue was +12%, EBITDA +16%.

• Axon (AXON, +16%): Demand for cloud platforms and AI analytics for police boosted Q2 revenue by 33%.
The company raised its 2025 sales guidance to $2.73 billion and announced its largest contract with a megacity client.

• Exxon Mobil (XOM, 0%) is returning to Libya.
It has agreed with the NOC to jointly explore offshore blocks and the Sirte Basin.

• First Quantum (FQVLF) to receive $1 billion from Royal Gold (RGLD) in the form of a gold stream to the Kansanshi deposit (Zambia).
Royal will receive ≈12.5 thousand ounces in 2025; FQM strengthens liquidity without new debt.

• TSMC (TSM) sues employees over 2nm tech leaks,
says 'zero tolerance'

• Synchrony (SYF) to acquire Lowe's (LOW) commercial card portfolio ($0.8B) Transaction closes in H1 2026; SYF will be the exclusive issuer.

• SentinelOne (S) acquires Prompt Security
to provide risk management for generative AI for the Singularity platform.

• Figma (FIG) is falling after the IPO.
The stock started on July 31 at $85. On August 1, it rose to almost $143. And in the morning it is already trading at $78.
Analysts recommend “holding” - the boom after the IPO is exhausted, the valuation looks overpriced.

• AMD shares fall 6% in the morning after the report.

Other stocks this morning after earnings:
ALAB +16%.
ANET +13%.
CPNG +2%.
AMGN -1%.
RIVN -5%.
MOS -7%.
SNAP -15%.
SMCI -16%.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- Eurozone retail sales for June
- US 10-year Treasury bond auction
- Disney, Uber, McDonald's earnings results

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Japan's labor ministry has proposed raising the average minimum hourly wage by ¥63 to ¥1,118 ($7.60 an hour at current exchange rates).
The 6% increase would be the biggest since 1978 and surpass last year's record of 5%.

• Schiff: “A rate cut in September is far from guaranteed, with inflation data likely to be higher than expected by the next Fed meeting. Moreover, the fact that markets are rallying on rate cut expectations only makes such a scenario less likely. Stronger inflation outweighs weaker employment growth.”
Goldman Sachs points out that the market is underestimating the potential for a Fed rate cut.
The bank expects three 25 bp cuts in September, October and December, with two more in the first half of 2026.
A delay in the cuts is possible if inflation rises or the labor market recovers.
Minus 50 bp in September is also possible if unemployment rises again.

• US Trade Balance (June) = -$60.2B (expected -$62.6B / previously -$71.70B)
US (July):
S&P Composite PMI = 55.1 (expected 54.6 / previously 52.9).
S&P Services PMI = 55.7 (expected 55.2 / previously 52.9).
US ISM Services PMI (July) = 50.1 (expected 51.5 / previously 50.8).

• Eurozone Business Activity Indicators:
Eurozone Services PMI (Jul) = 51.0 (expected 51.2/ pop. 50.5).
Germany Services PMI (Jul) = 50.6 (expected 50.1/ pop. 49.7).

• UK:
S&P Global Services PMI (July) = 51.8 (exp. 51.2/pop. 52.8).
Japan (July).
Services PMI = 53.6 (prev. 51.7).
Composite PMI = 51.6 (prev. 51.5).

Eurozone inflation indicators:
PPI m/m = 0.8% (exp. 0.9% / pop. -0.6%).
y/y = 0.6% (exp. 0.5% / pop. 0.3%).

• Denmark has cut its GDP growth forecast fourfold due to problems at its largest company, Novo Nordisk.
Last week, Novo Nordisk cut its sales and profit forecast for the second time this year due to increased competition and the appearance of analogues of its popular weight loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic in the United States.

• Trump:
- "If energy prices drop low enough, Putin will stop killing"
- "India is the country with the highest tariffs, in the next 24 hours the US will raise tariffs on Indian goods because of its purchase of Russian oil"
- "I can use the Kugler vacancy to pick the next Fed chairman. Warsch is a strong candidate. Hassett too, but there are two others I'm considering"
- "A 35% tariff on the EU if it defaults"
- "A small tariff on pharmaceuticals first, which could rise to 150-250% in a year."
- "I'll have an announcement soon on semiconductors and chips."
- Trump said he would like to, but probably won't, run for US president again.
- "They [the EU] gave us $600 billion to invest in whatever we want. There's nothing to pay back. It's not a loan."

• The EU is preparing sanctions against China for supplying UAV parts to Russia - Politico.
China, following India, has rejected US demands to stop buying oil from Russia, - AP, citing a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
/ What will India itself say? If China turns out to be the only major financier of Russia's war, it may become more accommodating.

• The US and Russia have parity in the number of nuclear warheads, but the US has more deployed carriers and spends seven times more on nuclear forces, Forbes reports, citing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

• The United States is introducing visa deposits for tourists and businessmen from a number of countries.
Under the new pilot program, applicants from countries with high rates of visa overstays will have to post a deposit of $5,000 to $15,000 to obtain a B-1 or B-2 visa. The deposit will be returned if the foreigner leaves the country in a timely manner.

• Many Democrats describe their party as “weak” or “ineffective,” according to a new poll that finds growing pessimism among Democratic supporters — The Hill.

• Fearing competition from China and Russia, the US announces construction of a nuclear reactor on the Moon — Politico. According to NASA, these measures are aimed at ensuring US leadership in the new phase of the space race.

• Moldova. The leader of the separatist Gagauzia region, Eugenia Gutsul, has been sentenced to seven years in a general regime penal colony.
She was found guilty in a case of illegally financing the Shor party, which she represented.

• Iranian authorities intend to denominate the national currency, removing four zeros from the rial.
The parliament's economic committee has already approved the general provisions of the bill, which stipulates that the new currency will retain its previous name, and one new rial will be equal to 10 thousand of the current ones. It is divided into 100 gerans.

• Panama is cutting off oxygen to the Russian “shadow fleet”: tankers older than 15 years will no longer be registered.
According to a statement from the Maritime Administration of Panama, starting in August the country will stop registering oil tankers older than 15 years.
In addition, every three months the Maritime Administration of Panama will conduct additional inspections for compliance with certification requirements of all vessels sailing under the Panamanian flag.
And this is the second largest registrar of commercial vessels in the world.

• The Japanese government is finally ending decades of clampdowns on rice production.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said farmers will now be encouraged to plant more to flexibly respond to demand and ensure a stable supply.
/ Humanity has enormous potential for growth, development, and improved quality of life as AI replaces bureaucrats around the world. Will it get worse?