Trump-Putin Conversation Spotlights Markets, Corporate News, Geopolitics

Latest stock market news

• The stock market is weak in Mag-7 stocks but strong in companies with a smaller capitalization than the magic seven. That is, there is rotation between sectors, not a flight from the market. The market was oversold and is now letting off steam.
This week could be key for investors. We are watching the resistance levels - will large investors use the growth of stocks to reduce their positions in them or will they calm down.
For now, the mood remains nervous. And ahead is not only the Fed meeting and quarterly options expiration, but also the next reporting season, as well as paying taxes for 2024 (what will investors sell to pay them - stocks or bonds?).
Plus, fears of a recession and Trump are already affecting the behavior of people and businesses and can independently cause a recession due to a drop in consumer and business activity.
The market is like an ocean - endless. The market is like mountains - big. The market is like the weather - unpredictable.

• A phone call between Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has taken centre stage in markets this morning as the US pushes for a ceasefire and peace deal in Ukraine ahead of a series of central bank meetings later this week.

The leaders' talk comes at a time of calm for traders, with stocks stabilising and progress towards peace likely to push gas prices lower in Europe and the euro higher.

Putin's demands sound familiar, but Trump said they would involve land, power plants and "sharing of certain assets" and that he believed an agreement was possible.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said on Monday that Russia's conditions for agreeing to a ceasefire showed that Moscow does not really want peace.

• The driving force behind trading in Asia was a renewed surge of enthusiasm for China, which has, surprisingly, benefited from the turmoil Trump has wreaked on US markets and growth expectations.

The latest push came after another unexpectedly weak U.S. retail sales report and the White House confirmed that tariffs would go into effect on April 2, putting pressure on the dollar and lifting gold prices.

At the same time, China has announced some childcare subsidies and other consumer-friendly measures, and data on Monday showed small signs of a pickup in retail spending. The Hang Seng has hit a three-year peak and is up nearly 23% for the year, by far the biggest of any major market.

The rally was broad-based, with shares in miners, automakers, technology companies and retailers rising. Shares in Shenzhen-based electric vehicle maker BYD jumped to a record after the company unveiled a new platform it says can charge electric vehicles as quickly as pumping gas.

• Kiwi short sellers spooked The New Zealand dollar also hit a three-month high as short-sellers appeared spooked by New Zealand's reliance on Chinese consumers through dairy exports.

• The US is experiencing a shortage of not only eggs, but also beef, - The Economist. The shortage is due to high demand and limited supply.

• Speculators halve net bets on a rising US dollar - CFTC. Major investment banks are aggressively cutting their forecasts for the dollar index (DXY), which has fallen faster and more sharply than ever before since the start of the year.

• Shares of the world's leading arms makers have risen by an average of 12% since the beginning of the year - Nikkei. The volume of global arms sales in 2024 was a record since the end of the Cold War, reaching $111.6 billion - a report from the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade.

• Experts now expect the ECB's rate cuts to slow as defense spending rises. The ECB is expected to cut rates only twice this year and not in 2026.

• The number of short sellers on crypto exchanges is decreasing. According to CryptoQuant, there is a trend of decreasing volume of sell orders in order to profit from the market decline.

4% of the world's population owns Bitcoin, according to River research.

• Not every AI agent needs its own token, according to CZ. Agents can charge a fee in an existing cryptocurrency for providing a service.
Only launch a coin if you have scale. Focus on utility, not tokens.

• Xi to meet top CEOs in Beijing on March 28. Qualcomm (QCOM) CEO Amon, Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser, and executives from Blackstone (BX), Pfizer (PFE) and FedEx (FDX) will attend the China Development Forum (March 23-24), followed by possible talks with Xi.

• Oil prices rose on US promises to continue attacking the Houthis, with Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate futures up 1%.

• Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stakes in Mitsubishi Corp., Marubeni Corp., Mitsui & Co., Itochu Corp. and Sumitomo Corp.
The companies agreed to relax the previous 10% cap on Berkshire's stake, opening up opportunities for further investment.

• Intel's (INTC) new CEO plans big changes: Restarting its AI business, reorganizing its chip design, and releasing new chips every year. Top priorities include strengthening Intel Foundry and attracting customers like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN).

• Tesla's Chinese rival BYD is eyeing Germany as a possible location for its third European factory. However, other options are also being discussed within the Chinese company. Factors that could influence the final decision include high labor costs, energy costs and limited production flexibility.

• Robinhood (HOOD) is becoming a bettor’s and trader’s paradise.
The platform is entering the prediction contracts market by launching the Prediction Markets Hub through KalshiEX LLC across the U.S.
Users will now be able to bet on Fed decisions, sports, politics, and other events, expanding Robinhood’s capabilities far beyond traditional trading.

• NVO shares rise on data showing ingredient osempic may reduce heart risk.

• BYD has unveiled a battery system that charges electric vehicles in five minutes, almost as fast as filling up a regular car.

• Chevron (CVX) bought nearly 5% of Hess shares in a show of confidence that it will win an arbitrage battle with Exxon Mobil, which has delayed its takeover of Hess for more than a year.

• Guess said Monday it had received a private offer from brand management company WHP Global for $13 a share.

• Affirm (AFRM) shares fall as rival Klarna, which is preparing to go public in the U.S., said it is now the exclusive provider of buy now, pay later loans to Walmart.

• Google (GOOG) is preparing to partner with Taiwan's MediaTek to build its next AI chip. However, Google has not cut ties with Broadcom, the chip maker it has worked with exclusively on AI chips for the past several years, according to a report citing a company employee.

• Hyatt Hotels Corp. (H) plans to sell bonds to help finance its $2.6 billion purchase of Playa Hotels & Resorts, an owner of all-inclusive resorts in the Caribbean.

• U.S. natural gas prices fall to 2-week low on record output. U.S. natural gas futures fell to a two-week low on Monday on record output, negative spot prices at the Waha hub in West Texas and forecasts for the weather to remain mild.

• Honda (HMC) will buy U.S. batteries from Toyota (TM) in response to tariff restrictions, Nikkei reports.

• LCID shares rise 2% in premarket trading. Morgan Stanley upgrades Lucid shares on potential for change.

• Investors will focus on Nvidia's annual software developers conference, where CEO Jensen Huang, who will deliver the keynote on Tuesday, is expected to defend the dominance of his nearly $3 trillion chip company as its biggest customers come under increasing pressure to rein in spending on artificial intelligence.

Nvidia is also expected to reveal details of its Vera Rubin chipset, which will replace Blackwell chips, at this week's conference.

The week ends with meetings of the central banks of Japan, the United States, Great Britain, Sweden and Switzerland.

Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- Trump-Putin phone call
- German ZEW research

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Fresh data on US economic activity.
Retail Sales m/m (Feb) = 0.2% (exp. 0.6%/prev. -0.9%).
Core Retail Sales m/m (Feb) = 0.3% (exp. 0.4%/prev. -0.4%).

Weak retail sales in advance, but significantly above expectations in the control group.

University of Michigan reports worst public expectations for personal finance growth on record,
with uncertainty about politics, the economy and markets the main threat.

• The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has downgraded its estimate for global economic growth over the next two years
, now forecasting global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2025 and 3% the following year. In December, it had expected a 3.3% increase.

• Trump's approach to the Russian-Ukrainian war is approved by 42% of Americans surveyed, while 55% disapprove - NBC News poll.
Trump's foreign policy as a whole is approved by 45% of respondents, while 53% are dissatisfied with it.

• The trade war between the US and Europe threatens economic ties worth $9.5 trillion, according to a report by AmCham EU.

• Elon Musk said that the US prints money "out of thin air" with the help of 14 mysterious "magic" computers.
According to him, these devices are located in the Treasury, the Health Department, the State Department and the Pentagon, and it is through them that new dollars are created. Musk hints: the American economy lives off an uncontrolled money printing press.

• Support for the Democratic Party in the US has fallen to a historic low, according to a poll. Only 29% of respondents have a positive view of the Democratic Party, according to a CNN poll conducted March 6-9. Fifty-four percent of respondents have a negative view of the party. This is the lowest approval rate since CNN began conducting such polls in 1992.

• Macron urged EU countries to buy European weapons instead of American ones. The French president is determined to convince European countries to spend their defense money on local EU products.

• Israel launched the heaviest strikes on Hamas in Gaza in months and followed the collapse of talks to free the remaining hostages - WSJ

• Hungary changes its mind about blocking EU sanctions against Russia after talking to the US - Politico. The case has raised optimism among European diplomats who are pushing for tougher sanctions against the Kremlin.

• Trump promises to hit the Houthis even harder if they want to respond. Trump accused Iran of coordinating the Houthis' attacks and promised that Tehran would suffer "grave consequences" for them in the future.
Our people will not submit to the aggressors. We continue this fight because this is the path of truth, justice and resistance to injustice, - the supreme leader of the Yemeni Houthis, Saeed al-Houthi, announced a ban on the entry of American ships into the Red Sea.

• Türkiye is actively increasing its natural gas production, moving closer to becoming an energy hub.

• China has launched a special plan to stimulate consumption amid deflation and low consumer confidence.
The decision was taken after a “two sessions” meeting in Beijing, where authorities stressed the need to boost domestic demand.
Markets responded positively.
Key measures include:
- Raising the minimum wage.
- Developing tourism (visa-free entry, ski resorts).
- Supporting the stock and housing markets.
- Subsidies for education and kindergartens.

• Sentiment among U.S. builders fell to a seven-month low on concerns about tariffs, rising construction costs and the domestic economy.