Traders await US Federal Reserve decision and corporate reports from Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, ARM, Ford, geopolitical news
Latest stock market news
• Financial markets are repeating last year's situation - at the end of July, stocks are getting cheaper, US government bonds are getting more expensive. Risk-off. But so far very sluggish, since optimism is now clearly higher than last year, despite Trump's tariff war.
Investors believe that Trump needs a bull market in stocks, and he will squeeze the Fed to lower interest rates and turn on the printing press.
Plus deregulation in cryptocurrencies and banking.
This morning, everything is calm.
We are waiting for fresh forecasts from the Fed, reports from the largest companies and data from the labor market - stormy days are ahead.
• Traders face a range of risk events over the next 72 hours, including central bank decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan, corporate earnings and, culminating in US President Donald Trump setting an August 1 tariff deadline.
Markets are showing cautious optimism ahead of the data deluge and after US-China trade talks ended on a positive note, albeit without any substantive agreement.
• Asian shares rise, led by gains in Korea, while the Shanghai Composite Index is poised to enter a tech bull market, up 20% from its April low.
• The euro strengthened 0.2 percent against the dollar, recouping gains as the single European currency heads for its first monthly loss this year as markets weigh the EU's trade deal with the United States.
• Fed and corporate earnings loom on the horizon. Traders are also bracing for a slew of corporate earnings, including from tech mega-caps Microsoft and Meta, and European stocks including UBS Group and GSK.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting later Wednesday, although some central bank officials may issue a rare dissent in favor of lower borrowing costs. The Fed is likely to keep rates on hold today but will give guidance that will weigh heavily on markets.
• And ahead of Trump's deadline to strike a deal that would prevent the "Liberation Day" tariffs, talks with the US by some countries, including China, India and South Korea, appear to be stalled. Buckle up.
• Japan's two-year government bond auction saw the strongest demand since October, with investors drawn by yields near their highest since 2008, Bloomberg reported.
• Senator Lummis introduced the Mortgage Modernization Act, which would allow crypto assets to be taken into account when evaluating mortgages.
• Nvidia (NVDA) ordered 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC due to strong demand in China - RTRS.
• The EU intends to buy AI chips worth 40 billion euros as part of a trade deal with the United States.
• “EUR/USD is not such a good deal,” – ING.
• DXY had its best day since May yesterday, driven by a massive exit from EUR/USD longs, especially after Europe's weak response to the US trade deal. Expectations were not met and the euro is losing strength.
• Chinese startup Zhipu claims its latest AI model, GLM-4.5 AI, is even more cost-effective to run than AI models from DeepSeek - CNBC.
• India overtakes China in smartphone exports to the US, thanks to a 240% jump in production - CNBC.
India's share of US smartphone shipments rose to nearly 36% in the first 5 months of 2025 from about 11% in 2024. China's share fell to 49% from 82% in the same period - The Indian Express.
• CBOE has filed a 19b-4 with the SEC to list and commence trading of the Invesco Galaxy SOL Spot ETF.
CBOE has also filed a 19b-4 with the SEC to list and commence trading of the Invesco Galaxy Staking Spot INJ ETF.
• Fidelity predicts gold at $4,000 by the end of 2025, - Bloomberg.
Analyst Samson notes that the slowdown in the US economy will strengthen the influence of "doves" in the Fed, which will contribute to a more accommodative monetary policy. With the likelihood of rate cuts increasing and the dollar weakening, gold, as an asset without yield, traditionally wins.
• Investors are moving from government bonds to US and EU corporate debt, - Bloomberg.
• In June, $3.9 billion was withdrawn from Treasuries, while $10 billion was invested in US and European investment-grade bonds (EPFR).
• The first 100% effective drug from Gilead (GILD) for the prevention of HIV is approved in the United States.
• Apple (AAPL) is closing a store in China for the first time, losing its lead in the smartphone market - 21st Century Business Herald.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO, -22%) lowered its profit and sales forecast for the year.
• Boeing (BA, -4%) EPS -$1.24, but better than expected loss of -$1.4.
Boeing suffered another setback, but the company says things are looking up.
• PayPal (PYPL, -9%) reported better-than-expected results.
However, free cash flow fell 49% y/y to $692 million.
• Baker Hughes (BKR, -2%) is close to a $13.6 billion deal for Chart Industries (GTLS, +16%) at $210/share (+22% premium). Flowserve (FLS, +2%) is “out.”
• UnitedHealth (UNH, -7%): earnings $4.08 (–$0.37 vs. consensus), revenue +13% → annual EPS revision downwards.
• Merck (MRK, -2%) cuts $3 billion in spending through 2027 to prepare for Keytruda generics; adjusted EPS $2.13 (>expected).
• Woodward (WWD, +1%) raises 2025 forecast after Airbus deal; records sales, acquires Safran business
• ONsemi (ON, +0.5%) integrates with NVDA for 800 V power supply of AI centers.
• Berkshire (BRK.B, -1%) reduced its stake in VeriSign (VRSN, -9%) to <10%, selling $1.23 billion in shares.
• Procter & Gamble (PG, -0.3%): COO Shailesh Jejurikar will become CEO effective Jan. 1, 26; Jon Moeller is executive chairman.
• Latnik: Trump to announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals in the next 2 weeks. Tariffs will be huge if pharmaceuticals are not produced in the US.
• Google's earthquake early warning system failed to warn people in Turkey in 2023.
Google acknowledged that the system issued a low-level warning instead of the highest. If people had received a notification, they might have had time to find safety.
• Iron ore prices rose more than 2% to near $103 a tonne
amid news that the US-China trade truce could be extended.
• Microsoft (MSFT) is in talks with OpenAI to ensure it has access to its technology, even if OpenAI creates true AI equal to or better than humans, Bloomberg.
• US data centers could consume up to 12% of all electricity by 2028, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
In the most pessimistic scenario, that’s 255 additional terawatt-hours of consumption, equivalent to the energy consumption of more than 24 million households.
• Open interest in options on BlackRock IBIT's BTC ETF has tripled this year to $34 billion. Daily trading volume averages $4 billion, exceeding the trading volumes of even major ETFs in credit and emerging markets — BBG.
• An offline messenger from Twitter creator Jack Dorsey has been released in the App Store. The application works even in airplane mode, correspondence occurs via Bluetooth, and all messages are saved and encrypted on the smartphones themselves.
• Figma (FIG) IPO took place at the upper limit of the offer - $32. Demand exceeded supply by 40 times.
Stocks in premarket trading after earnings
QRVO +11%
FTAI +9%
TER +6%
SBUX +4.5%
MARA +4%
BXP +3%
REG +2%
V -2%
BKNG -2%
MDLZ -3%
STX -6%
Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- European earnings: UBS Group, Banco Santander, GSK, Telefonica.
- US earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, ARM, Ford.
- French: June consumer spending and preliminary Q2 GDP.
- German: June retail sales, Q2 GDP forecast.
- Eurozone: Q2 GDP forecast.
- UK: 27-year government debt auction.
- US: Fed interest rate decision, Q2 GDP growth rate.
- Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• US Trade Balance (June-preliminary) = -$85.99B (expected -$98.3B / previously -$96.59B)
The US trade deficit has started to narrow quickly due to Trump's tariffs.
US imports have fallen sharply after panic buying on the tariff panic.
This means less dollar liquidity in the world. And that's good for the dollar.
US consumer confidence and labor market indicators are all good.
CB Consumer Confidence = 97.2 (expected 95.9 / pop. 95.2 estimated).
JOLTS Job Openings (May) = 7.437M (expected 7.510M / pop. 7.712M estimated).
• Bessent on China talks: China rejects US calls on Russian oil.
More tariffs may be needed to force China.
• India's Ambassador to the UK Vikram Doraiswamy has responded sharply to criticism of oil purchases from Russia, the Times of India writes:
"We import over 80% of our energy. What do you want us to do - shut down our economy?" Everything you need to know about the modern world.
Trump on India - India may pay duties of 20-25%.
• The European Commission has officially confirmed that it will not be able to force EU companies to buy $750 billion worth of energy resources from the US or invest $600 billion in the US.
But it will “talk to companies” and persuade them to do so.
This was stated by the European Commission representative Olof Gill at a briefing in Brussels, answering a question about the EU-US trade agreement.
• Japan expects only 1-2% of the $550 billion in the new trade agreement with the US to be real money in the form of investments, with the rest being loans and guarantees.
• Even with high tariffs, Trump's trade war suddenly doesn't look so scary on Wall Street - CNBC
• The IMF raised its estimate of global economic growth in 2025 by 0.2% to 3%.
IMF: Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 2026.
• China and the United States agreed to extend the deadline for the agreement and continue negotiations.
• The Trump administration is considering reforming the patent system to raise more revenue.
Officials are discussing introducing a fee on patent owners in the amount of 1% to 5% of the total value of the patent, – WSJ.
• Trump claims he is NOT seeking to meet Xi.
The Fake News reports that I AM TRYING to arrange a "summit" with President Xi Jinping. This is not true, I am not trying! I can go to China, but only with an invitation from President Xi, which has already been sent. Otherwise, no interest!
• Gulf states to replace Russian oil after Trump sanctions – Reuters.
Global oil demand is expected to rise by 700,000 barrels a day this year, according to the International Energy Agency.
• Orban faces economic storm ahead of election.
Hungary's government has significantly cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%, down from 3.4% previously.
Government interventions such as price controls and forced wage increases have heightened business uncertainty.
• Trump has acknowledged for the first time that there is a real famine in the Gaza Strip and called on Israel to allow “every ounce of food” to be delivered there.
He has thus publicly diverged in his assessments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who the day before called the claim of famine a “brazen lie” — The Guardian.
Israel plans to completely annex the Gaza Strip in accordance with Netanyahu’s plan.
The country is preparing to issue an ultimatum to Hamas, demanding that it agree to a ceasefire within a few days. In case of refusal, the phased annexation of the strip will begin. This plan has already received the approval of the Trump administration, Haaretz reports.
We understand that the Muslim population is growing in many countries in Europe, and this affects the policies of European governments.
But this is not a reason why Israel should commit suicide, — Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on France’s decision to recognize Palestine.
Starmer announced that the UK will recognize Palestine as a state at a UN meeting in September
If Israel does not agree to a ceasefire.
• Bloomberg: Germany intends to double its defense budget by 2029.
According to the news agency, Berlin is expected to allocate 162 billion euros for military spending in 2029. At the same time, Germany expects to spend 9 billion euros annually to support Ukraine, Bloomberg reports, citing a high-ranking government official.
• The EU's transport infrastructure is not ready for war with Russia, warned European Commissioner for Transport Apostolos Tzitsdikostas.
In the event of a Russian invasion, NATO tanks could get stuck in tunnels, fall through old bridges under the weight, or stop at borders due to excessive bureaucracy, he believes.
The EU plans to spend €17 billion on modernization.
• Thailand has accused Cambodia of violating the ceasefire. The Thai military said Cambodians carried out attacks at various points along the border between the two countries after midnight, when the truce was supposed to go into effect.
• Britain tests spy balloon that can fly higher than most military aircraft - British military radio
The balloons, which operate between 18 and 24km above the Earth, higher than most military aircraft, would also provide a low-cost communications option.
• Germany plans to develop long-range drones capable of hitting targets deep behind enemy lines – Handelsblatt.
• France has suffered its biggest defence data breach in history, with codes for combat systems and nuclear weapons software among other things hacked.
The French defence company Naval Group, which makes submarines and warships, has been attacked by cybercriminals who have gained access to sensitive data.