The fall of markets due to tariffs continues, geopolitical crisis and corporate news
Latest stock news
• Roller coasters continue. The market soared by 3% from the opening, and closed with a fall of 2%. In the morning after a new round of the escalation of the trade war between the USA and China, futures on US stock indices fall by an average of 2%.
Nervous begs to go out.
This time, US government bonds also fell in price - the 10-year is already 4.423% (as recently as Monday it was 3.9%). The main sales are based on long-term government bonds of 20-30 years. And despite the increase in profitability, the US dollar is falling. Market rates on stagflation are growing.
Oil is already $57-60 and the Russian budget is bursting at the seams. It would have been like that a couple of years ago even without the tariff war.
• As the next phase of a rapidly escalating trade war becomes increasingly apparent, investors remain in shock as the stock market continues its deep slide and rush to safe-haven assets — the yen and the Swiss franc — waiting and hoping for some semblance of good news.
• President Donald Trump's retaliatory tariffs, including 104% tariffs on Chinese goods, took effect at midnight (US time), fueling fears of a recession and upending the decades-old global trade order. Markets were pinning their hopes on negotiations, but so far, it seems, Washington and Beijing are headed for a decisive clash.
• That sent investors scrambling for cover as Wednesday's relief rally fizzled and Asian stock markets turned into a sea of red. European futures point to a significantly lower open on the day.
So, the yen and the Swiss franc became the choice of nervous investors, as the incessant selling of dollars showed no signs of stopping. In developing markets, the Indonesian rupiah fell to a record low level and was on the verge of breaking the 17,000 mark per dollar.
The yuan weakened to a 19-month low, while its offshore counterpart retreated from a record low level reached during turbulent overnight trading.
• The flight to safety did not affect US Treasuries. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose by a staggering 21 basis points. The fact that large-scale tariffs can lead to a recession, and markets are pricing in further interest rate cuts, is usually a good reason to buy bonds, but this has not happened. ING economists said that the "sell America" trade now dominates the theme of the growing risk of a recession, which would normally reduce profitability. In short, get ready.
• Most of the heads of large American companies with whom I talk believe that we are already in a recession - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. And they believe that stock markets can fall even deeper due to the trade policy of President Donald Trump, which destabilizes the global economy.
• Goldman believes that the sell-off in US stocks may well turn into a longer cyclical bear market as recession risks grow.
• Oil may fall below $40 under "extreme" conditions - Goldman. The slowdown in world GDP growth and the simultaneous increase in production by OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries.
Trump intends to increase coal production in the USA to provide electricity for data centers - BBG.
• Arthur Hayes predicts an influx of Chinese capital into BTC due to the devaluation of the yuan. This already happened in 2013 and 2015.
• Porsche reported a drop in global sales by 8% in Q1 2025. The main drivers of the drop were the markets of the People's Republic of China and Germany.
• 62% of investors are currently bullish on the stock market. That is the highest indicator since the global financial crisis of 2008 - LSEG.
• "Black swan" investor Mark Spitznagel warns: the collapse of the market can reach 80% - but not now. In his opinion, the market has not yet reached the "euphoric peak", and the bubble, although the largest in history, has not yet burst.
• China began to gradually weaken the yuan - this is a change of course and a signal to Washington. Before the introduction of Trump's tariffs, the exchange rate was kept stable.
• The President of Mexico: Most of the directors of auto plants in Mexico said that they have no plans to relocate their plants yet.
• TSMC may be fined $1 billion or more. As a result of the US investigation into cooperation with the Chinese Huawei.
• Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) rose. As Goldman Sachs raised the rating of the pharmaceutical giant, it emphasized the company's leadership in the growing market of anti-obesity drugs.
Goldman predicts that Eli Lilly's weight loss drug franchise will beat consensus expectations, and the market is expected to triple by 2030.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded CME Group (CME), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) and MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) to Overweight.
Referring to the necessity of hedging and risk management in conditions of market volatility.
The bank considers stock exchanges as a defensive play in troubled times, with the potential to increase trading volumes.
• Shares of Tilray Brands (TLRY) fell after missing revenue estimates for the third quarter in a row.
The cannabis company revised its annual revenue forecast downwards, despite the fact that its net profit exceeded expectations. The company's cannabis segment suffered a decline, while the alcoholic beverage and distribution segments showed growth.
• Apple ( AAPL ) stores experienced a surge in "panic buying" of iPhones as buyers feared higher prices due to tariffs
Despite efforts to diversify its supply chain, Apple remains dependent on China for production. Analysts warn that the trade war may significantly affect Apple's profits if exceptions are not granted.
• Shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) rose. After Piper Sandler upgraded the bank's rating to Overweight, he marked the bank's transition from defensive to offensive.
The improvement of the bank's regulatory environment and the deregulation program during the Trump administration were cited as positive factors. The potential removal of the limit on assets also opens up opportunities for growth.
• Generac (GNRC) announced the launch of new high-power generators for the data center market. Expanded its product line to support high-power applications.
The new generators aim to expand Generac's capabilities in serving critical businesses, including telecommunications operators and hospitals.
• Alibaba (BABA) is modernizing its AI services abroad, unveiling new models and infrastructure updates at its Spring Launch 2025 event. The company aims to meet growing demand for digital transformation with new AI tools and services for international customers.
• Trump's tariffs could soften one of the most expensive housing markets in Europe - if Apple and Pfizer workers are laid off.
Workers of technology and pharmaceutical companies in Ireland are under threat due to the escalation of Trump's trade war.
• Shares of Levi's ( LEVI ) rise as the company says price changes caused by the tariffs will be "surgical."
Shares of Levi Strauss rose on Tuesday, a day after the denim giant reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and gave a relatively bullish outlook on Trump.
Key events that may affect the markets on Wednesday:
- Tariff updates.
Current fundamental reviews
• The March index of small business optimism in the NFIB report decreased by 3.3 points to 97.4.
This is the largest monthly decrease since June 2022, which is below the average value for 51 hours (98).
The decrease in the Index of improvement of business conditions (-16) and expected sales (-11) were the most influential factors.
At the same time, the index of uncertainty fell by 8 points from the second highest indicator in February to 96.
• Trump signed a decree to increase tariffs on China to 104% from April 9.
• Musk personally asked Trump to cancel new large-scale tariffs, - WP. The newspaper notes that these are "the loudest disagreements between the president and one of his key advisers."
The billionaire criticized Trump's trade policy adviser Peter Navarro, who played a key role in developing the tariffs.
• Trump announces a record Pentagon budget of $1 trillion or 3.5% of GDP. The Pentagon is considering the possibility of withdrawing up to 10,000 US troops from Eastern Europe.
The units considered for reduction are part of the 20,000 troops that the Joe Biden administration sent in 2022 to strengthen the defense of countries bordering Ukraine after a full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation.
• Trump said that the EU should buy $350 billion worth of energy from the US to reduce tariffs, - Politico.
• In response to new US tariffs, China will launch an investigation into the intellectual property of US companies operating in the country. It also plans to ban the import of American films - Xinhua.
• The White House is considering the possibility of drone strikes against Mexican cartels - NBC.
• Trump decided to hold an expensive military parade in Washington on his birthday, June 14. This day also marks the 250th anniversary of the US Army - CNN.
• China is trying to advance NATO in the Black Sea. Beijing invests hundreds of millions of dollars and receives almost half of the shares of a strategic port in Georgia.
• German exports to the USA will drop by 15% due to new tariffs. This will happen if it is not possible to agree with Washington on the reduction of tariffs introduced by Donald Trump, predicts the Institute of Economic Studies (ifo). Acting the head of the Federal Ministry of Finance Jörg Kukis noted that this threatens a recession in Germany. At the same time, the trade war unleashed by Trump will also hit the United States, he emphasized.
• UBS Global Research: among the major eurozone countries, Germany is likely to suffer the most from Trump's tariffs.
• The USA is conducting direct negotiations with Iran. Donald Trump announced this, announcing a "very important meeting" on April 12. The US president threatened Tehran with "great danger".
• Stagflation is now America's best-case scenario. Trump's tariffs risk causing a severe combination of recession and inflation - BBG.
Hassett (White House): "The Fed will make decisions on monetary policy. Respect the Fed's independence."
• Traders are quickly betting on a faster easing of the DCP in China against the background of worsening trade tensions with the USA - BBG.
• Mexico will increase gas production to reduce dependence on the USA - FT.
• US Trade Representative Greer: "We have excluded pharmaceuticals and semiconductors from mutual tariffs, as we believe that they require separate investigations."
Trump: "We need more than twice as much electricity as we have now." And for this, investments are needed.