Stock reviews for today, Trump's nomination, US rates, stock and commodity markets
Fundamental Reviews
Soft comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cemented September's interest rate cut, at least in the eyes of markets, with the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House keeping his deals in play and in investors' minds. In his final public comments before the US Federal Reserve goes dark ahead of its July 30-31 policy meeting, Powell remained cautious but suggested the latest inflation data was in the right direction for inflation to return to normal levels . The Fed's target is 2%. “We had three best results, and if you average them out, it's a pretty good result,” he said at an event on Monday .
• Trump was nominated for the third time in a row as a US presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention. Trump chose 39-year-old Senator DJ Vance as his candidate for US Vice President.
A new super political action committee, America PAC, supporting Donald Trump's presidential race, is seeking financial support from Musk.
Previously, America PAC received money from
- Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir Technologies,
- crypto entrepreneurs Winklevoss brothers,
- founder of Valor Equity Partners,
- former US Ambassador to Canada,
- CEO of coal mining company Alliance Resource Partners,
- former managing partner of Sequoia Capital.
More and more businessmen are financing and hoping for Trump's return.
A US court has dismissed the case against Donald Trump for illegal storage of secret documents - Reuters. The decision gave the Republican candidate another big legal victory in his bid to return to the White House.
• Orban sent EU leaders a “peace plan” to resolve the Russian war against Ukraine. He said he had begun negotiations with other mediators because both countries were "determined to continue fighting."
The EU will boycott the summit of foreign ministers in Hungary because of Orban’s “peaceful” policy towards Ukraine - Politico.
Many ministers believe that Orbán's propaganda show would take place during the summit.
• The Wall Street Journal called the assassination attempt on Trump the biggest failure of the US Secret Service in 40 years. Since the assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan.
• Global power grids fail due to extreme heat - Bloomberg. Around the world, the risk of power outages is becoming more serious. Hotter summers mean a surge in demand for cooling, as high temperatures lead to sagging wires and the risk of wildfires.
• The Armenian-American military exercise Eagle Partner 2024 started in Yerevan. The military personnel were congratulated by Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan and US Ambassador Christina Quinn.
• The President of Georgia filed a lawsuit against the law on “foreign agents” in the Constitutional Court. Salome Zurabishvili demands the complete repeal of the law “On Transparency of Foreign Influence.” This is the first such lawsuit in the country's history. The Constitutional Court may suspend the law while the claim is being considered.
• Meloni aims to bring back nuclear power to Italy. 35 years ago the last nuclear power plant in Italy was closed. Now Meloni's government plans to introduce legislation that will allow investment in small nuclear reactors.
• The NY Empire State manufacturing activity index fell more than expected in July.
From -6 to -6.6 (improvement to -5.5 was expected).
Stock reviews
• Moody's: The Fed may start cutting rates as early as July 31st.
• Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) shares rose 31%. As his chances of returning to the White House grow.
• Blackrock CEO: Bitcoin is digital gold. "It is a legitimate financial instrument that allows you to possibly have an uncorrelated type of return. I believe it is an instrument that you invest in when you are more fearful. It is an instrument when you believe that countries are devaluing their currencies due to excess deficit, and some countries do just that."
BlackRock's assets under management hit an all-time high of $10.6 trillion.
In the second quarter, the company attracted $51 billion of client funds to its long-term investment funds.
BLK shares fell 0.6% after the report.
• Kuwait has discovered a "giant" oil field east of Failaka Island in the Persian Gulf.
Its reserves are 3.2 billion barrels, which is equivalent to the country's entire production for three years. Kuwait has some of the largest oil reserves in the world. According to OPEC data for 2022, it ranked sixth in this indicator. The country's total oil reserves were estimated at more than 100 billion barrels, or 6.55% of the world's total reserves.
• Rare earth prices are in decline. China wants this to continue - WSJ. China is not shy about using its dominance in supply chains for political leverage.
• Global smartphone market grew 6.5% driven by demand from Samsung and Apple - IDC. Deliveries rose for the fourth quarter in a row, reaching 285.4 million units.
• Macy's shares fell the most in four years (-12%) after buyout talks ended - Bloomberg. The company has completed negotiations with two investors to buy out the department store chain, promising to carry out a turnaround plan on its own.
• British regulators will check Big Tech digital wallets. British regulators said Monday they are examining the rapid growth in the use of digital wallets offered by Big Tech companies, including whether there are any concerns about competition, consumer protection or market integrity.
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK +2%) share price hits all-time high - Reuters.
• BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink Urges Biden, Trump to Continue 'Boom Boom' - Bloomberg
Fink urged US presidential candidates to overcome the country's divisions following the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, seeking to convince them of the need for growth in capital markets.
• Apple (AAPL +2%) shares jumped to another all-time high. The tech giant was named a top pick by Morgan Stanley. Apple's annual sales in India grew by 33%. Up to a new record of $8 billion.
• Goldman earnings rise as traders beat analysts' estimates - Bloomberg. Trading division of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. provided a sharp increase in profits in the second quarter.
GS shares rose 2.6% after the report.
• KKR says public markets are too short-sighted for energy transition - Bloomberg. The stock market's fixation on quarterly earnings and short-term performance makes it a suboptimal place to finance companies critical to the energy transition.
• Texas Governor Greg Abbott threatens to punish energy company CenterPoint Energy (CNP). CNP shares fell 7% yesterday.
Hundreds of thousands of state residents sweltered without power for more than a week after Storm Beryl knocked down power lines and knocked out power to about 2.7 million homes and businesses. CenterPoint said Monday it had restored power to more than 2 million customers. However, more than 200 thousand remain without electricity.
• Match Group (MTCH) shares are up 9% in premarket trading. WSJ writes that activist investor Starboard Value has acquired a stake in the online dating company and is pushing for a possible sale if the turnaround effort fails.
• Long-term US government bonds fell noticeably in price again in response to Trump's growing chances of being elected president - TLT fell by 1%.
Otherwise the movements were mixed.
• Bitcoin is almost back to $65 thousand.
Today
- Amazon Prime (AMZN) will hold its two-day Prime Day event. Target (TGT), Kohl's (KSS), Nordstrom (JWN), Best Buy (BBY) and Walmart (WMT) are running sales promotions leading up to or around Prime Day.
- A report on US retail sales for June will be published.
— Zoox CEO Aisha Evans will speak at the Fortune Live press conference about how Amazon's autonomous vehicle subsidiary plans to make the robotaxi concept a practical reality.
- Lucid Group (LCID) CEO Peter Rawlinson will speak at the Fortune Live press conference in Park City, Utah.
Premarket Reports
BAC - Bank of America
UNH - Unitedhealth Group
PGR - Progressive
MS - Morgan Stanley
SCHW - The Charles Schwab
PNC - PNC Bank
After Market Close
IBKR - Interactive Brokers
JBHT - JB Hunt Transport