Stock market news of companies and geopolitics, Bank of England rate cut, cooling of the US labor market
Latest stock market news
• The US stock market grew by an average of 1% yesterday. The growth leaders were the XLY, XLP, XLK, XLC sectors. And the decline leaders were XLV.
Everything is calm in the morning.
Bitcoin is hovering around $115 thousand. Ether has risen back to $3700.
• There is little doubt in the market that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by a further quarter point today, its fifth cut in a year. But the delicate balance between a slowing labour market and lingering inflation concerns could see the board split into three groups, with two of its nine members possibly pushing for rates to remain unchanged and two others lobbying for a half-point cut. The wording of the board's decision will also be key, with a focus on whether the idea of a "gradual and cautious" easing remains in place.
Any sign of a prolonged pause would be a blow to Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who have promised to boost Britain's sluggish economic growth.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve has seen a clear downward trend in macroeconomic data over the past week, especially labor market data, just days after its board decided to forgo a rate cut. However, with the data also reflecting concerns about rising inflation as a result of President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff campaign, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's wait-and-see stance is also finding some support.
The Fed debate, in which two Trump-appointed governors expressed dissent over the decision last week, has been dominated by the president's persistent and aggressive calls for lower rates, often accompanied by insults and threats to fire Powell before his term as chairman ends in May.
Market attention is focused on Trump's short list of four possible candidates and, more importantly, his candidacy for governor, which was suddenly vacated by Adriana Kugler.
• Meanwhile, Trump's barrage of tariff threats continues unabated, with the latest threats including a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports and additional duties on Russian oil imports to India.
Trump plans to talk to Russia's president next week about ending the war in Ukraine, which is supporting the euro but raising uncertainty about the outlook for crude prices. But the market has become more accustomed to the constant saber-rattling over tariffs, with Japan's Topix index hitting a record high, while Taiwanese tech stocks jumped more than 2% to hit their highest in a year.
Futures on the pan-European STOXX 50 index rose 0.2%, while Wall Street futures also rose by about the same amount. One reason is a strong earnings season in the U.S., with Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips and Warner Bros. Discovery, among many others, expected in the coming days.
• Europe also expects a busy day of earnings reports, including from Allianz, Siemens and Merck. On the data front, Germany releases trade and industrial production data, while the UK releases house price data.
• The current bull market, which started in October 2022, has already lasted 33 months and has brought +84% growth.
In comparison, the median length of bull markets is 30 months with +90% gains.
According to the Fidelity analyst, the April “scare” in the market seemed serious, but in fact did not break the overall uptrend, and the forward movement continues.
• Record number of Chinese companies set to list on US exchanges in 2025
despite difficulties in Sino-US relations – RTRS.
• Chinese stocks rise after Trump talks about possible meeting with Xi Jinping.
• China - New Energy Passenger Vehicle (NEV) retail sales (July) = 1,003,000 vehicles = -10% m/m = +14% y/y - preliminary CPCA data.
• A long-standing shortage of platinum supplies has reached a critical point.
Banks are trying to buy up dwindling stockpiles in London amid active buying of the metal by China and the US - BBG.
However, platinum prices have been falling for the past two weeks.
• US aluminum imports fall by a quarter due to 50% tariff - S&P Global.
• Berkshire (BRK) shares are falling ahead of Warren Buffett's departure.
Down 13% from their peak in early May,
the conglomerate's stock has underperformed the market by the second-largest amount since 1990. — FT
• FT: OpenAI could become the world's most valuable private tech group.
The company is in talks with investors about a secondary sale of employee shares that could value the company at $500 billion.
At this rate, it could reach $1 trillion before the IPO.
OpenAI has launched a competition with a $500,000 prize pool.
All you need to do is hack their new open source gpt-oss-20b model.
The goal is to find promt injections and vulnerabilities that will reveal incorrect model behavior. There are 21 days left until the end of the competition.
The prize will be divided equally between 10 winners.
OpenAI tools to be deployed across US federal government - Fox
Elon Musk said he will open source xAI's Grok 2 chatbot next week.
• China's investment demand for gold is growing rapidly, Bloomberg reported.
Stocks of gold in warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to 36 tons, nearly double what they were a month ago,
indicating growing demand for futures contracts that trade at a steep premium to physical gold.
• The Federal Aviation Administration has proposed a new policy
that could make it much easier for Walmart, Amazon and others to launch commercial drone delivery services.
• Over $18 billion in short positions in Bitcoin are at risk of liquidation
if the BTC price reaches $125,000.
• Hyperliquid generated 35% of all blockchain revenue in July, - VanEck.
Glassnode: The BTC market has moved from the euphoric stage to the cooling stage, investors have become more cautious in their assessments, and selling pressure is increasing.
• Former Gensler adviser claims liquid staking carries risks,
similar to the “re-mortgage” practiced by Lehman Brothers before the collapse, and could trigger a systemic crisis in the crypto industry.
• Spotify (SPOT, +3%) raised its subscription price to €11.99 from €10.99
for subscribers in Europe, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia Pacific.
Despite the growth in its paying audience, its revenue forecast was below analysts' expectations.
• Uber (UBER, -0.2%) launches $20B share buyback after record $8.5B FCF for the year; EPS falls short at $0.19, but management shows confidence.
MasterBrand + American Woodmark (MBC, AMWD) — $3.6B all-stock merger; combined Adj. EBITDA of $639M (including $90M in synergies). MBC shareholders will get majority.
• Coinbase (COIN, +2%) — placed $2.6 billion in convertible bonds (2029/2032), with a possible increase to $2.96 billion; funds under capped call and general liquidity.
BWX Technologies (BWXT) — +18% to an all-time high on Tuesday.
• US Navy contract + rumors of a nuclear reactor for the Moon; annual guide increased.
• AMD (AMD, -6%) forecasts +28% revenue in Q3 thanks to MI350 and EPYC; Q2 +32% y/y.
• Toast (TOST, -4%) — fintech + GP subscription +29%; entry into Australia, partnership with AmEx, record connections.
• Rivian (RIVN, -4%) — confirmed a plan for 40-46 thousand auto deliveries in 2025; working on autonomy despite tariff risks.
• Snap (SNAP, -17%) — Q3 revenue guidance of $1.48-1.51 billion; Q2 +9% y/y, Snapchat+ is growing.
• RingCentral (RNG, +27%) — 2025 FCF guidance raised to $520 million; first positive GAAP operating profit, new alliance with AT&T.
• Paysign (PAYS, -27%) — 2025 revenue cap raised to $78.5 million; record Q2, best margins.
• Wix (WIX, +0.3%) — Q2 $490 million (+12%); improved Outlook H2 2025.
• Bayer (BAYZF) raised its revenue forecast to €46-48 billion (adjusted for exchange rates) despite a 3.6% decline in Q2.
• Tim Cook said new tariffs on India will not affect Apple (AAPL, +5%).
• Tesla (TSLA, +4%) is training a new Full Self-Driving (FSD) model, expected to be publicly released in September.
• EUR/USD remains almost entirely dependent on dollar movements, with little support from the eurozone, - ING.
Despite the pair being somewhat undervalued, growth is being held back by an overestimation of US risks, particularly with regard to the economy and Trump's policies.
• ElevenLabs has launched an AI service for generating royalty-free music.
Eleven Music creates songs with vocals and lyrics based on text requests and is available for commercial use.
Stocks in the morning after the reports
DUOL +19%
BROS +17%
PAYC +10%
DASH +8%
DKNG +6%
HUBS +5%
CRH +4%
CTVA +2%
OXY +1%
ET -1
% MCK -1%
LYFT -4%
IONQ -5%
APP -5%
MET -5%
ABNB -6%
ELF -11%
EXAS -16%
FTNT -17%
SYM -18%
Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- Bank of England policy decision
- House prices in Halifax, UK (July)
- German exports, imports, industrial production (all of June)
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Trump said a decision on the nomination of a new Fed chief would be made by the end of this week.
• Eurozone economic activity indicators:
Retail Sales m/m = 0.3% (exp. 0.4% / pop. -0.3%).
y/y = 3.1% (exp. 2.6% / pop. 1.9%).
CME FedWatch: 94% chance of 0.25% rate cut in September already
• Kashkari (Fed):
In the near term, it may be appropriate to start adjusting interest rates.
The Fed must respond to the slowdown in economic growth.
Two rate cuts this year still seem appropriate.
A change in course on rates may be better than waiting.
The US labor market is cooling.
• Trump: We are imposing a 100% tariff on chips, a 100% tariff on all semiconductors coming into the U.S. The only exemptions are for those who commit to building their manufacturing in the U.S.
My special envoy Steve Witkoff just had a very productive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Much progress was made!
No decision yet on where the Putin-Zelensky summit will take place.
Expect lots of additional secondary sanctions on those who buy Russian oil.
We are imposing secondary sanctions on other countries, possibly China.
Putin told Witkoff he wants to meet with Trump - Fox News.
Trump said he would meet next week if it would stop the war.
Trump said he was not aware of any uranium or fertilizer being imported into the U.S. from Russia.
• EU to cut duties on some US fertilizers to zero to replace Russian imports - Euractiv.
• The US will monitor imports of Russian oil by countries and does not rule out taking measures against them – White House.
• Trump signs executive order on additional 25% tariffs against India for oil purchases from Russia — White House.
Tariffs will come into effect on September 17, 2025.
• SCMP: China is unlikely to stop purchasing oil from Russia due to Trump’s threats.
• China is reintroducing anti-Covid measures due to the spread of the Chikugunya virus - BBG.
The Chikugunya virus is transmitted through a mosquito bite.
• US accuses China of violating Nvidia chip exports.
Two Chinese nationals were arrested this week on charges that they illegally shipped tens of millions of dollars worth of Nvidia AI chips to China in violation of US export restrictions.
• India should not buy oil from Russia.
However, China, an adversary and the largest buyer of Russian and Iranian oil, received a 90-day deferment on duties. We cannot turn a blind eye to China's actions and at the same time spoil relations with such a strong and important ally as India - former US Permanent Representative to the UN Nikki Haley criticized Trump's statement on the introduction of high duties on Indian exports.
• Trump's approval rating has dropped to 38%, while 58% of Americans express dissatisfaction with his performance, according to a new UMass Amherst poll. That's down 6 points from April.
• The inauguration of the president took place in Poland.
Karol Nawrocki took the oath and officially became the president of Poland, replacing Andrzej Duda.
• German energy company Uniper SE became the first among European suppliers to receive compensation from Gazprom due to disrupted contracts.
• Some companies have filed arbitration cases seeking compensation of billions of euros from Gazprom for disrupted contracts after 2022.
• Trump will host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House on Friday, where the parties may announce a peace agreement — WP.
• Albania to ban cash
Albania could become the world's first cashless country by 2030, but the plan faces significant hurdles.
Prime Minister Edi Rama has proposed going cashless in order to eliminate the country's huge shadow economy, which is estimated to account for between 29% and 50% of GDP.