Stock market collapse continues, panic in markets and society, company news and geopolitics
Latest stock market news
• In the morning, the collapse on global financial markets continues. S&P 500 is already below 5000 (-3%). In Asia, indices are falling by 6-10%. Bitcoin is falling by 6% ($78 thousand), and precious crypto is falling by more than 10% on average. Oil is $60-64 (-2%).
Another day, another plunge in Asian markets as President Trump shows no sign of backing down on his tariff plans despite stock markets being consumed by a bonfire of wealth.
Investors thought the specter of trillions of dollars lost would make Trump reconsider, or at least shake up his aides, but he seems to feel that the harsh medicine will help in the long run. Billionaire fund manager Bill Ackman, who backed Trump’s presidential bid, seemed to think otherwise, saying the tariffs were an “economic nuclear winter” for the world.
• The chill was certainly felt in Asia, where the Nikkei index fell another 6% and Chinese blue chips fell nearly 7%, despite talk that Beijing would come to the rescue with stimulus measures.
Poor Taiwan returned from its hiatus with losses of nearly 10% as Trump's sky-high tariffs threaten the supply chains on which so much of the world's business has come to rely. Taiwan's politicians have moved to curb short selling, and circuit breakers have been triggered in many markets.
• Dealers were increasingly worried that losses in the markets would force investors to dump winning assets just to cover their margin calls, triggering a sell-off. JPMorgan now puts the chance of a U.S. recession and a Fed rate cut between June and January next year at 60%, leaving the funds rate at around 3%. Futures markets have also moved in that direction, with December Fed funds up a whopping 30 basis points this morning before closing down to 16 ticks.
• Powell's restraint: Markets are even pricing in a 50/50 chance of the Fed easing as early as May, despite Chairman Powell's repeated assertions last week that the central bank is in no rush to take action. His restraint is understandable, given how tariffs are set to raise prices on everything from cars to food. It's probably too early for this week's March U.S. consumer price report to show the impact, but it won't last long.
• Trump said many countries wanted deals to ease the pain of tariffs. The problem was that the “reciprocal” rates the U.S. chose were much, much higher than the tariffs most other countries actually imposed, making it difficult for them to offer deals “pretty enough” to satisfy Trump.
• China appears ready to fight, partly because it sees a chance to become a reliable trading partner, replacing the US. There could also be further hints of retaliation from the EU when the region's trade ministers meet later on Monday.
All this comes as earnings season for the largest U.S. banks is set to begin on Friday, and only a bold CEO would express anything other than concerns about the earnings and sales outlook.
• In the US, a suicide prevention hotline has become particularly popular among investors, due to the sharp decline in the S&P 500 index.
• Today could be the third day in a row that the S&P 500 falls more than -4%. This has only happened once before - during the Great Depression.
• Jim Cramer is looking at 4000 for the S&P 500. "I want to see where it all settles... today is not the bottom because Europe's response to tariffs hasn't come yet. The S&P 4000 is where I'm looking."
• Switzerland has returned to negative interest rates on its two-year government bonds.
• Apple (AAPL) considering expanding iPhone production in Brazil to circumvent Trump tariffs - media
• Elon Musk's SpaceX will use its rockets to launch U.S. military satellites into space in a contract worth nearly $6 billion - U.S. Space Force
• British Jaguar Land Rover is suspending deliveries to the United States due to the introduction of new tariffs by President Donald Trump, trying to find a solution for further operations in the United States - a statement from the company.
• US Treasury Secretary Blames China's DeepSeek for Stock Market Crash The stock market crash has more to do with the emergence of Chinese AI assistant DeepSeek this year than with President Donald Trump's policies, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with American blogger Tucker Carlson. / Biden No Longer to Blame?
• Klarna and StubHub have suspended their public offerings as stock markets are in free fall due to Trump tariffs.
• Swiss government bonds show negative yields again.
• Taiwan market falls 10%, biggest one-day drop since 1990. Taiwan limits short selling this week.
• The volume of intraday orders on shares has been reduced from 30% to 3% of the average daily trading volume over the past 30 days.
The minimum margin for short selling has increased from 90% to 130%.
• March inflation data and big bank profits are among the highlights of the economic calendar this week
Investors will be looking for cues on prices and economic health amid uncertainty around Trump's announcement of tariffs expected to take effect on Wednesday. China has announced retaliatory 34% tariffs due to take effect on Thursday.
• The Fed's minutes are expected to provide insight into economic conditions and interest rate dynamics.
Consumer sentiment and lending data will be closely watched amid economic uncertainty over inflation and tariffs.
• Friday's earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and BlackRock (BLK) kick off a big quarterly earnings season.
Automatic stops on the CME Futures Exchange will be at -7%, -13% and -20% down levels,
with trading halted for 15 minutes when each is reached.
• Jim Cramer hints at a repeat of Black Monday 1987. Black Monday was October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones fell nearly 22% in one day - the biggest one-day drop in history.
No one knows where the market will go, but it always pays to be prepared for new opportunities.
• Warren Buffett was the only one among the top 10 richest people in the US whose asset value rose amid Trump's trade war.
• Wedbush analyst Dan Ives: "Hope for some news over the weekend - like a tariff deferral or common sense prevailing, because if nothing happens over the weekend, we'll go into next week and that's a little bit of a scary prospect."
• Wall Street banks have asked their hedge fund clients to put up more cash as collateral for loans as the value of their assets has fallen sharply, according to people familiar with the matter - FT.
• The Chinese authorities have not approved the deal to sell TikTok's American assets. Due to recently announced tariffs on Chinese goods - Reuters, citing sources.
Meanwhile, Trump has extended the deadline for the sale of TikTok by 75 days.
• Trading volume across all U.S. exchanges reached a record 26.4 billion shares on Friday, according to ZeroHedge. That officially surpasses the Jan. 27, 2021, high of 23.7 billion shares, when meme stocks were at their peak.
• Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all imported beer and added beer cans to existing tariffs on aluminum, hitting brands including Heineken, Carlsberg and Corona. - FT
• Farmers fear tariffs could cost them one of their biggest markets in China. "There's just no room for error in the current farm economy," said Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Growers Association.
• B. Riley received notice from Nasdaq that its annual report was delayed. While the notice does not immediately impact B. Riley's listing, Nasdaq notified the company that it has until June 2 to file a plan on how it intends to return to compliance.
• GameStop (GME) shares jumped 11% on Friday as stock indexes fell after regulators found that CEO Ryan Cohen purchased 500,000 shares of the company.
• Defense companies that have maintained U.S. supply chains for national security reasons may be relatively insulated from the impact of new tariffs, Morgan Stanley said Friday.
• Meta (META) has unveiled LLaMa 4, its most powerful AI model yet. The company has released three versions: Behemoth, for challenging tasks; Scout, which is lightweight and fast; and Maverick, which is balanced and powerful.
Weekly calendar
-Monday, April 7
Consumer Finance (February)
Reports: Levi Strauss (LEVI), Greenbrier (GBX) and Dave & Buster's (PLAY)
- Tuesday, April 8
NFIB Optimism Index (March)
RPM International (RPM), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), WD-40 (WDFC), Tilray Brands (TLRY), Mama's Creations (MAMA), and Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) report
- Wednesday, April 9
US Tariffs Scheduled to Go Into Effect
Wholesale Inventories (February)
March FOMC Minutes March
Reports: Constellation Brands (STZ), Delta Air Lines, and Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
- Thursday, April 10
China Tariffs to Take Effect
Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending April 5)
Consumer Price Index (March)
Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee to Speak
CarMax Reports
- Friday, April 11
Producer Price Index (March)
Consumer Sentiment - Preliminary (April)
NY Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak
JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) to report
Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- EU retail sales, Sentix investor confidence, German industrial production.
- Speeches by ECB board member Piero Cipollone and Fed chief Kugler.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• The United States has received appeals from more than 50 countries since President Trump announced new tariffs, White House National Economic Council Chairman Kevin Gasset told ABC News' This Week.
• Bill Ackman, founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, believes the April 9 deadline for the tariffs to go into effect will be delayed to give Trump "time to make deals."
• Trump is currently on a flurry of calls. Time is running out to strike deals before tariffs go into effect.
• EU considers introducing counter-tariffs against US worth $28 billion - Reuters.
• Trump's introduction of comprehensive import tariffs will change the world order, and one of the clear winners of this policy is Xi Jinping, - WSJ.
US policy has been aimed at weakening economic relations between European countries and China for many years. Now, restoring ties with China is a matter of time, the publication writes.
• Anti-American sentiment has increased in Asian countries following Trump's tariffs, which could lead them to choose China as an alternative trading partner.
• Taiwan President Lai Ching-de said the island would not respond to U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures. Instead, Taiwan would focus on removing trade barriers and increasing investment in the U.S. economy by Taiwanese companies.
• India will seek a new trade deal with the US to avoid Trump's tariffs - Bloomberg.
Reuters, in turn, writes that India is unlikely to take action in response to Trump's tariffs.
• New deliveries of Russian gas to Germany are possible, the head of Thuringia said. "It is possible - but the decisive factor is the end of the war in Ukraine," said Mario Voigt, Prime Minister of the federal state of Thuringia and a member of the CDU party, in an interview with the Berliner Zeitung.
• Britain tests new hypersonic cruise missile - The Telegraph The new engine could power the new hypersonic missile, which has a longer range than a conventional one.
• US President Donald Trump made his own decision on the tariff formula, based on his own instincts. He was surrounded by people who did not dare argue - The Washington Post.
• Germany wants to get its gold back from the US. Berlin is shocked by the unpredictability of their new administration's policies and doubts the reliability of their American partner, - Politico. We are talking about ≈1,200 tons of gold worth €113 billion in the Fed's vaults, which make up a significant part of Germany's gold reserves - the second largest in the world.
• British officials have met with individual European allies to discuss plans for a new defence fund designed to bypass the European Commission, control public debt and rearm faster - Politico
• The EU may introduce retaliatory duties on imports from the US in May - FT. European authorities have already begun to work out a list of possible measures that will cause maximum harm to the US economy and will not give much "return" to the economy of the European Union itself. In particular, the possibility of introducing duties against Boeing is being considered.
• The Italian Prime Minister believes that the EU should not impose retaliatory sanctions against the US. According to Meloni, retaliatory measures could primarily affect the European economy.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could earn between $300 billion and $600 billion a year from tariffs - WSJ
That figure assumes little change in tariffs in the near term, as announced this week, but could help cover the cost of tax cuts Congress is considering.
• MAGA hats: “Make America Go Away” are gaining popularity in Greenland.