Stock and corporate news, US unemployment report expectations, geopolitical reviews
Stock market news
• An eventful week in markets ends with more muted results as traders await U.S. jobs data, although the lingering threat of a trade war is keeping investors from making big bets. Asian stocks were mostly mixed, except in China, where an artificial intelligence-fueled rally lifted Hong Kong's Hang Seng to a three-month high on Friday and its biggest weekly gain in nearly four months.
• Investors are betting that domestic AI startup DeepSeek's development will lead to a boom in the sector, while they are largely ignoring the trade war saga that began earlier in the week.
• US President Donald Trump imposed and then suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada earlier this week, but duties on Chinese goods remained in place. Beijing responded with what most investors saw as the first step in long, drawn-out negotiations. But with little news about whether or when Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold talks, investors have focused on the broader economic picture and corporate earnings. A social media post could change all that, but for now, European stock markets are doing well. They have had a strong start to the year as investors took advantage of valuation gaps between relatively cheap European shares and some of their foreign peers.
• The pan-European STOXX 600 index, which closed at a record high on Thursday, is up 8% since the start of 2025, while benchmark indices in Germany and France are up about 10%. The S&P 500 is up 3% over the same period. However, futures on Friday pointed to a muted open in European shares, suggesting some profit-taking is likely.
• The Dallas Fed president said that lower inflation may not be enough to cut the Fed's rate.
The Fed may have to keep rates steady for "quite a while." Even if inflation falls to about 2% in the coming months, that won't necessarily allow the Fed to cut rates anytime soon. That is, the Fed knows that inflation will fall mathematically in the near future. But it doesn't want to cut rates.
• Trump: We'll get oil prices down, everything else will follow. That's his persistent goal. To get interest rates down and the U.S. economy going again, we need to get oil prices and inflation down.
• Trump Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent eased pressure on the Fed. Bessent said Donald Trump is not asking the Fed to lower short-term interest rates, but he and the president want to lower the cost of long-term borrowing through 10-year Treasury bonds.
• Honeywell (HONl) confirmed plans to split into three independent companies, focusing on automation, aerospace and advanced materials. The move, scheduled to be completed by the second half of 2026, is aimed at streamlining operations and is expected to be tax-free for shareholders.
HON shares fell 6% after the report.
• Roblox (RBLX) shares fell 11%. Revenue rose 32% year over year to $988.2 million, while daily active users increased 19% to 85.3 million. The company's growth was driven by increased user engagement and monetization, as active hours increased 21% year over year.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) fell 4% on concerns about smartphone demand, despite beating first-quarter financial estimates. The company expects phone revenue to grow 10% year over year thanks to Samsung Galaxy S25 shipments.
• Arm Holdings (ARM) has withdrawn a previous threat to terminate its architecture licensing agreement with Qualcomm, resolving a legal dispute over Qualcomm's acquisition of Nuvia.
This development removes uncertainty over Qualcomm's future use of Arm technology after Arm first reported a breach of the agreement in October 2024.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) shares fell 4% after issuing 2025 guidance that missed expectations, although the company beat fourth-quarter estimates with revenue up 8% to $12.3 billion. The company's performance was bolstered by strong sales of Eliquis and Revlimid, although its future guidance missed analyst consensus.
• Philip Morris International (PM) shares rose 11% after beating fourth-quarter profit expectations and providing strong full-year guidance. The company's revenue increased 7.3% year over year, driven by growth in smoke-free products, which now make up a significant portion of its overall revenue and profit.
• Digital Turbine (APPS) rose 96% after beating estimates for its third fiscal quarter and raising its full-year guidance.
Despite a 6% year-over-year decline in revenue, the company reported 13% growth for the quarter, as improved execution and margin optimization efforts helped boost its performance.
• Bitcoin BTC is definitely better than gold - Cathie Wood.
• Trump Media has registered trademarks for Truth.Fi ETFs and SMAs, including Bitcoin, Made in America and US Energy Independence, which hint at crypto support.
• Equifax's (EFX) fourth-quarter revenue missed estimates on a hiring slowdown. Shares fell 8%.
• Citigroup (C) expects gold prices to hit a record $3,000 an ounce within three months.
• Peloton (PTON) shares rose 12% after the exercise equipment maker's second-quarter revenue and adjusted profit outlook beat analysts' expectations.
• Insurer Allstate said it expects $1.1 billion in losses from claims caused by wildfires that swept through Southern California in January. ALL shares are neutral, with expectations valued.
• Mistral releases its AI assistant on iOS and Android. Mistral, sometimes considered Europe's great hope for artificial intelligence, is releasing several updates to its AI assistant Le Chat.
• Spotify (SPOT) and Warner Music Group (WMG) have signed a new multi-year distribution deal that will see Spotify license directly from WMG's music publishing arm, Warner Chappell Music, which has a catalog of more than 1 million copyrights in the U.S. and several other countries.
• Shares of sportswear maker Under Armour (UAA) fell 8% after the company's third-quarter sales and adjusted profit beat estimates.
• Volkswagen to launch €20,000 'China killer' electric car Volkswagen has teased plans for an electric car that will cost just £16,700 as the German carmaker prepares to take on Beijing.
Stocks in the morning after the reports
AMZN -5%
FTNT +7%
MPWR +10%
TTWO +7%
MCHP -6%
EXPE +10%
PINS +19%
ELF -26%
AFRM +12%
• The main focus of U.S. trading will be nonfarm payrolls data, which are expected to show a 170,000-job gain last month after a 256,000 jump in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Slow U.S. job growth in January is unlikely to be enough to push the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts before the end of the first half of the year. Markets are fully priced in another 25 basis point cut in July.
Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- German industrial and trade data for December
- UK house price data for January
- US payrolls data for January
Fundamental news
• The Biggest Tax Cut in History - The Trump administration's tax plan.
- No tip tax.
- No Social Security tax for seniors.
- No overtime tax.
- Restore Trump tax cuts.
- Adjust the SALT cap.
- End special tax breaks for billionaire sports team owners.
- Close the interest loophole.
- Tax breaks for "Made in America" projects.
• Donald Trump meant only responsibility for the reconstruction of Gaza, and not a desire for its long-term control or the resettlement of Palestinians, - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
China is against the forced displacement of Gaza residents. And US President Donald Trump's plan to "take control of the region"
- Chinese Foreign Ministry.
• Panama has waived fees for US government vessels to use the Panama Canal - US State Department.
The State Department said it would "save the US government millions of dollars a year." The
Panama Canal Authority has denied the US State Department's claim that it would waive fees for US government vessels.
"It's clearly not about money.
• I am starting the process of impeaching President Trump, - Democratic Congressman Al Green responded to Trump's statements about plans to evict residents of the Gaza Strip to other countries. Green accused the US president of plans for "ethnic cleansing" of Palestinians and said that he would initiate impeachment proceedings.
• Javier Miley prepares currency reform in Argentina - FT Argentina's president plans to lift strict currency controls by the end of the year, even without an IMF deal. He is already negotiating an $11 billion loan to shore up the central bank's reserves.
Currency controls have been in place for more than nine years, restricting access to dollars and deterring investment.
• Colombia's president ordered Ecopetrol to cancel the American project. Gustavo Petro said the joint venture, which was to produce about 90,000 barrels of oil a day, would create environmental problems due to its use of hydraulic fracturing.
• The Economist on Germany: Despite stagnation, there are glimmers of hope in the German economy. The auto industry, faced with Chinese competition, is restructuring; companies are looking for new niches, such as aerospace and medical industries.
The green transition and digitalization are also creating growth areas. The number of startups in 2023 has grown by 11%, and venture capital investment has doubled since 2019.
• The Bank of England has cut its key interest rate to 4.5% from 4.75% as expected. The Bank of England has resumed monetary easing amid ongoing concerns about sluggish growth in the UK economy.
The bloated public sector is hurting the UK economy.
Andrew Bailey has warned that poor public sector productivity is dragging the economy down after the Bank of England halved its 2025 growth forecasts.
• Americans looking for work have had the toughest time in nearly three years. Labor Department data released Thursday showed 1.89 million weekly jobless claims were filed in the week ended Jan. 25, up from 1.86 million the week before and near the highest level in three years. That's a sign that more Americans are staying out of work longer and continuing to collect unemployment benefits.