Nonfarm payrolls and oil company reports, corporate and financial reviews
Stock market news
• Asian markets started what promises to be a banner month on a cautious note, with investors shunning risk assets ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs data and next week’s presidential election. Most Asian shares fell, led by a 2.3% drop in the Nikkei. Chinese shares outperformed, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rising 1.6% after a private survey showed China’s huge manufacturing sector resumed growth in October. The Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI confirmed the upbeat results of an official survey released the day before, suggesting the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy may have bottomed out as a raft of government stimulus measures kick in to boost growth.
• Oil extended its third straight day of gains, climbing nearly 2% on Friday after reports Iran was preparing to retaliate against Israel from Iraq in the coming days. The dollar pared some losses against the yen, but currencies were broadly rangebound. In Europe, investors found some solace in gains at Amazon, which jumped 5.3% in after-hours trading to add $104 billion to its market capitalisation. EUROSTOXX 50 and FTSE futures were up 0.1%.
• In the U.S., Exxon Mobil and Chevron are due out, along with a key ISM manufacturing survey and nonfarm payrolls report. Hurricanes and strikes have made the jobs data difficult to read. Forecasts are centered on a gain of 113,000 new jobs in October, but a strong ADP report and lower unemployment data suggest risks are to the upside. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.1%, so barring a major surprise, markets are likely to stick with bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a quarter point next Wednesday. That’s more than 94% priced in.
• The stock market, led by the Magnificent Seven, was hit by a sell-off yesterday, with stock indices down 1-3%. The market had approached the reports too high. And oil rose 3%. The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds showed the biggest monthly increase since February 2023, to almost 4.2% per annum.
• KKR and Energy Capital Partners have agreed to jointly invest $50 billion in data center and power generation projects to support the development of artificial intelligence - WSJ.
• Coinbase (COIN) invests additional $25M in crypto PAC Fairshake to support pro-crypto candidates in the 2026 elections.
• MicroStrategy announced a plan to raise $42 billion over the next three years to buy BTC:
- $21 billion through equity
- $21 billion through fixed income
• Raiffeisen Bank International is not ready to leave Russia without any compensation. This was stated by the head of RBI, Johan Strobl, during a call with analysts.
• For the first time, the quarterly revenue of Chinese automaker BYD exceeded that of Tesla. The former earned $28.2 billion in the quarter, while the latter earned $25.18 billion. In terms of profit and the number of electric vehicles sold, Elon Musk's company still outpaces its Chinese competitor.
• The EU has launched a lawsuit against the Temu marketplace. The platform is accused of distributing counterfeit goods.
• The US is set to significantly increase lithium production with new projects in Nevada and California, which should reduce dependence on China for electric vehicles.
• Booking Holdings (BKNG) shares jumped to a record high after the travel company raised its full-year gross bookings forecast and reported third-quarter room nights beat analysts' expectations, suggesting consumer demand had not slowed as much as last year.
• Mastercard (MA) reported profit that beat analysts' estimates, helped by an increase in cross-border transactions.
• Stellantis' (STLA) third-quarter revenue fell, but inventories rose. "We're in a transition period." The company said changes it made to overcome its weakened position may have worked.
• Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell in extended trading after the software maker forecast slower quarterly cloud revenue growth.
• Pringles chip maker Kellanova (K) beat quarterly sales, reporting solid earnings on robust demand.
• Huawei Technologies reported a 13.7% drop in net profit for the first nine months. This is despite a jump in revenue.
• Altria Group (MO) beat market expectations for revenue and profit in the third quarter. Strong demand for nicotine pouches and e-cigarettes helped soften the blow to its revenue and profit.
• Anthropic is launching Claude apps for Mac and Windows in public beta, which, as Anthropic writes on its blog, “brings the power of Claude directly to your workspace.”
• OpenAI is currently testing a search engine based on ChatGPT, which could become a direct competitor to Google. I personally use ChatGPT for search, and the company has probably seen such demand from users. And for OpenAI, this could be a step toward cost optimization - a different, cheaper model could be used for search. OpenAI has not said that it will charge for advertising. And this hits GOOGL's business model.
• Ford is temporarily halting production of the F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck, citing low demand and high inventory (90 days of sales, while the company prefers 60 days). Ford sold about 23,000 Lightning pickups in the U.S. in September, up nearly 90 percent from a year earlier. But the company had hoped for significantly higher sales.
• SIRI shares are up 2% post-market. Berkshire has increased its stake in the company again, to 33.2%. It has also increased its stake in FWONA (+1.4% post-market).
It is believed that these purchases are being made not by Buffett himself, but by his investment manager Ted Weschler. Since the beginning of the year, SIRI has fallen 50%. It looks like Weschler will not be Buffett's successor.
• UBS chairman says systemically important banks have sufficient capital.
• Italian finance minister defends crypto tax hike amid party row
• WTW's third-quarter profit rose on strong risk and brokerage business.
• Italy's Intesa raises 2025 profit forecast after good quarter
• Mastercard earnings beat expectations on robust consumer spending.
• BIS leaves the cross-border payments platform Project mBridge.
• Investment bank Lazard's profits surge as dealmaking recovers
• Robinhood shares fall as growth weighs on third-quarter results.
• India's central bank is well prepared for post-US election volatility, sources say.
• Millennium bcp shares jump nearly 5% on earnings and dividend optimism.
• Norwegian Cruise raises profit forecast again after record ticket sales.
• Big tech's spending on artificial intelligence worries investors about Amazon's profits.
• Ametek raises fiscal year earnings forecast on strong quarterly sales and EMG segment growth.
• Quarterly profit at parent company NYSE ICE rose on strong trading volumes.
• Recruitment firm Challenger says planned layoffs in the U.S. will again decline in October.
• Nvidia's proposed acquisition of artificial intelligence startup Run:ai requires EU approval, EU regulators say.
• Peloton appoints former Apple executive Peter Stern as CEO to lead restructuring.
• Regeneron beats demand forecasts for eczema treatment and eye drugs.
• Oil refiner PBF Energy reports wider-than-expected third-quarter loss on falling margins.
• Nebius Group's quarterly revenue grew sharply due to strong demand for AI.
• UK financial firms ordered to strengthen defences against CrowdStrike-like events.
• Amazon workers 'shocked' by AWS CEO's return to office claims, call for policy change
• Google is bringing AI solutions to mapping applications.
• Microsoft forecasts slowdown in cloud business growth in second quarter.
• Meta predicts sharp increase in AI spending after results beat Wall Street expectations
• Google wins UK trademark claim over YouTube Shorts name.
• Italian finance minister defends crypto tax hike amid party row
• Siemens may cut stakes in Healthineers and other companies to finance Altair deal.
• Abu Dhabi company to launch tokenized US Treasury bond fund
Yesterday's strong moves after reports
ROOT +69%
PTON +28%
RBLX +20%
CVNA +19%
BKNG +5%
CMCSA +3%
META -4% (the company was "punished" for increasing capex)
MSFT -6% (the company was "punished" for significant capex growth and weak guidance)
EBAY -8%
UBER -9%
LI -14%
HOOD 17%
EL -21%
HII -26%
Shares in the morning after the report in the morning
- TEAM +18%
- INTC +7% (This is a reaction to cost cutting, not revenue growth. The company is laying off 16,500 people in addition to the recent layoffs of 19 thousand)
- AMZN +6% (AWS revenue grew by 19% y/y, online store revenue grew by 7% y/y. Investors have so far ignored a sharp increase in capex in the 3rd quarter to $22.5 billion from $12.5 billion last year and a sluggish forecast for the 4th quarter)
- AAPL -2% (The company beat expectations for iPhone sales - growth of 6% y/y (if not for weak sales in China, growth could have been higher), but reported weakly on services sales - growth of 12% y/y. The company hopes for sales growth in India. And in 2024, the company returned $110 billion to shareholders - even slightly more than its cash flow)
Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- UK Manufacturing PMI
- US Nonfarm Payrolls
- ISM Manufacturing Survey
- Oil giants XOM, CVX and ENB to report before the opening bell
Fundamental news
• The Fed’s favorite gauge of core U.S. inflation posted its biggest monthly gain since April,
bolstering arguments for a slower pace of interest rate cuts after last month’s big cut.
PCE +2.1% y/y (expected +2.1% / previously +2.2%).
Core PCE +2.7% y/y (expected +2.6% / previously +2.7%).
The U.S. labor market remains strong.
Initial Jobless Claims - 216K (expected 229K / previously 228K).
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) unexpectedly fell sharply to 41.6 from 46.6 (expected 46.9).
• China's residential property sales rose in October, marking the first annual gain in 2024 as
the government's latest stimulus blitz brought buyers back.
• Investors will be watching to see if the sell-off in UK government bonds continues and whether sterling breaks its 200-day moving average as markets judge Chancellor Rachel Reeves' debut Budget. Analysts fear a big-spending budget could put upward pressure on inflation, with investors betting the Bank of England may have to slow the pace of future rate cuts. Two-year government bond yields have risen 27 basis points this week to their highest since May, although that appears modest compared with the 89 basis point drop that followed Liz Truss's 2022 effort.
• Trump's social network DJT shares fell again yesterday, down 12%. The latest CNN poll shows Kamala Harris leading Trump significantly in key swing states Michigan and Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, the biggest swing state, the two are still neck and neck.
A strong economy and lower gas prices are helping Harris.
• All EU residents should ensure that they have 72 hours' worth of essential supplies in case of crisis situations, such as cyber attacks and sabotage, as well as chemical, biological or nuclear incidents - this is the recommendation of the European Commission in a report on strengthening civil and military support, Deutsche Welle reports.
• Serbia will have to choose between the EU and Moscow. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said that Serbia will have to start aligning its foreign policy with the EU's position sooner or later if it plans to become a member of the European Union.
• Austria has increased its import of Russian gas by more than 30% compared to the same period in 2023, despite a government program that encourages companies to diversify their supply sources. Imports from Russia to the country (which go through the Ukrainian GTS and Slovakia) exceeded Austria’s own needs. Most likely, this gas was pumped, sold or exported to other EU countries.
• China has slapped sanctions on America's largest drone maker, Skydio, after the drone maker appealed to the Biden administration for help. Skydio sent more than 1,000 drones to Ukraine to gather intelligence, and they were also used to document Russian war crimes.