New Opportunities in Artificial Intelligence, Changes in Fed Board Members, Stock Market News, and Geopolitics
Latest stock market news
• The US stock market opened yesterday up about 1%, but closed the day around zero. Banks were the leaders in the decline. The deterioration of credit portfolios plays a role here.
AAPL was the leader in growth - a new iPhone is expected here in September.
In the morning, US stock index futures are up 0.3%.
Crypto is growing, and ETH is leading here, having come very close to recent highs.
• With US President Donald Trump’s nomination for the vacant Federal Reserve seat now off the table, investors are awaiting Senate confirmation to see if Stephen Miran will have a vote at the central bank’s September meeting.
Trump on Thursday appointed the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to fill the final few months of the vacant Federal Reserve Board seat, following the surprise resignation of Fed Chair Adriana Kugler last week. The news drew little reaction from markets on Friday, as Miran’s chances of being confirmed by the Senate remain uncertain. The economist has called for a complete overhaul of the Fed’s governance. But one thing is for sure: If Miran joins the Fed, he will likely vote to cut rates. And even as an interim governor, his appointment would give Trump a potentially more direct path to achieving his goals of looser monetary policy and control over the world’s most powerful central bank.
Trump also said the White House is continuing to search for a candidate to fill the 14-year term on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors that begins Feb. 1, and is also considering options to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15, 2026.
Bloomberg News reported Thursday that Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller is being considered a leading candidate to become the central bank's next chairman and has met with members of Trump's team who were impressed with him.
• Tokyo tariff overhang lifted. The U.S. government pledged Thursday to amend a presidential order to eliminate overlapping tariffs on Japanese goods, Tokyo's trade negotiator said after talks in Washington to correct what he called an "embarrassing" oversight.
During those discussions, Ryosei Akazawa called on U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to ensure that the 15% tariff agreed to last month on Japanese imports is not added to products like beef that are subject to higher duties. The lifting of the tariff overhang lifted Tokyo stocks and helped push the Topix index above the key 3,000 psychological mark for the first time on Friday, helped by a series of strong earnings reports.
• SoftBank Group shares rose nearly 11% after the tech investor reported a return to profit in the first quarter.
• OpenAI has released GPT-5, which is freely available to everyone (with restrictions).
It's a hybrid AI system, not a single model. It's a system of six models with an intelligent router that independently analyzes a query and chooses which model will do the best job.
Altman said, "GPT-4 was like being a student, GPT-5 is like talking to a PhD expert."
The model is called the best coding on the market (we're waiting for real reviews).
The model has been taught to perform multi-step tasks using different tools and files without getting lost in long context.
It hardly hallucinates.
On LMArena, where users blindly rate answers, GPT-5 took first place, ahead of o3 and Gemini 2.5 Pro.
• Elon Musk said his Grok 4 Heavy AI was already smarter than the current GPT-5 two weeks ago, and now it has become even better.
According to him, Grok 4 outperformed GPT-5 in the ARC-AGI test.
• Trump signed an executive order allowing cryptocurrency and private assets to be included in 401(k) retirement accounts.
Trump appointed Dr. Stephen Miran to the Fed until January 31, 2026, and will continue to search for a permanent replacement.
The Fed now has three votes to lower rates.
One of the articles that particularly caught the attention of Wall Street was Miran’s paper questioning the wisdom of a stronger dollar for the country.
• The Bitcoin Reserve Act, currently being considered by the US Congress, includes a clause on gold revaluation.
This means an official increase in the value of gold in dollars, which could strengthen the Fed's balance sheet and partially devalue the government debt without direct emission. Such a step could be considered as an alternative way to stabilize the financial system in the face of debt pressure.
• $10 billion sent by fans to content creators via Patreon.
The service recently celebrated its monetary anniversary - this is the total amount of donations collected and transferred through the platform throughout its entire existence.
• Trump: “We are imposing a 100% tariff on chips, a 100% tariff on all semiconductors imported into the United States. The only exemption from the tariff is for those who have committed to building production in the United States.”
• Expectations of a possible truce between Ukraine and Russia are fueling demand for the euro, especially against the backdrop of optimistic statements by Donald Trump, - ING.
In the event of a real breakthrough in the negotiations, the EUR/USD and EUR/CHF pairs could become the main beneficiaries.
• US companies announced $166 billion in buybacks in July, the highest figure ever for that month.
• The previous record ($88 billion) was set in 2006. Google introduced Genie 3, an AI that creates games from text.
You need to write something like “I want to be a dragon flying over a volcano” — and Genie 3 will generate the game itself: the world, physics, sounds, controls — everything works in real time.
• Tim Cook presented Trump with glass with gold and promised $600 billion in investments in the USA.
Apple AAPL increases investments in the American economy to $600 billion in 4 years and launches a program to localize production.
iPhones can now be assembled in the USA, and chips can be manufactured in Texas, Utah, Arizona and New York.
Apple will also receive the right to produce its own electricity.
• Apple (AAPL) is losing key AI talent, - FT.
In 2025, about 10 members of its AI team went to competitors: Meta, OpenAI, xAI, Cohere.
Apple said it would make 19 billion chips in the US and pledged to buy all rare earth magnets from a US supplier.
• A law has come into force in the EU that literally turns open Android into a cut-down version of iOS.
Now in Europe, Android smartphones are becoming strictly closed systems, where the user does not own his device at the software level, and any changes to the firmware are prohibited.
• Microsoft (MSFT) is poaching employees of Google's (GOOGL) DeepMind AI division, - WSJ.
/ It's their game now. They've increased their capacity, now they're looking for those who can handle it.
• General Motors and Hyundai will jointly develop cars amid competition in the electric vehicle market from China.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) jumped nearly 5% after being exempted from a potential 100% U.S. tariff on chips due to TSMC's $165 billion investment in Arizona factories.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) gained 2.5% after Apple announced it would source chips from a Samsung plant in Texas, and Samsung and SK hynix received tariff exemptions.
• Airbnb (ABNB) targets $4.02B-$4.10B in Q3 revenue after +7% nights booked and FIFA partnership.
• Magnite (MGNI) posted +14% CTV contribution in Q2 and deals with Roku, Netflix; expects growth in SMB segment and benefit from the decision against Google.
• Dutch Bros (BROS) raised its 2025 revenue and EBITDA forecasts after +28% revenue and +6.1% same-store sales; plans to open 160 new locations.
• Energy Transfer (ET) announced the $5.3 billion Desert Southwest pipeline but cut its 2025 EBITDA forecast due to Bakken challenges and slowing dry gas demand growth.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) reported +1% revenue to $9.81 billion and confirmed $2.4 billion EBITDA in the studio segment.
• elf Beauty (ELF) posted +9% net sales, strengthening in international markets despite tariff pressure.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) outlines $1 billion opportunity in Saudi Arabia and 100-aircraft joint venture with Japan.
• Jack in the Box (JACK) has launched a $100 million real estate sale and 1,000 restaurant renovation plan to revitalize the brand.
• Sana Biotechnology (SANA) lost 13% after a $75 million stock offering at $3.35 per share (with prepaid warrants).
• Rheinmetall (RHM) reported slightly worse-than-expected second-quarter sales but maintained its 2025 outlook.
• Trump met with the heads of Citigroup and BofA to discuss plans to privatize mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC).
• QryptoQuant notes a sharp drop in stablecoin reserves on exchanges = historically bearish trend.
Since stablecoins are considered to be launched on exchanges primarily for the purpose of buying crypto, the withdrawal of stablecoins can be perceived as an indicator of a decrease in risk appetite.
• Futures market funding has eased to neutral levels,
suggesting that bulls are less willing to pay a leverage premium, as well as cooling speculative interest and less confidence in near-term growth, - Glassnode.
• U.S. Bitcoin miners are bracing for a slowdown
after the White House imposed steep reciprocal import tariffs on mining equipment from Southeast Asia.
The new rates, which went into effect on August 7, include a 19% reciprocal tariff on ASIC miners imported from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. This brings the total import duties for those countries to 21.6%.
• The global diamond industry is expecting a “black day”.
When additional duties on imports from India come into effect in the US, the gemstone market risks losing one of its most important export sectors in the event of the promised 25% rate.
This is a black day for the jewellery sector and gemstones.
• LLY -14%
On poor results in test of oral obesity drug.
• CROX shares fell 29% yesterday.
People expect discounts, otherwise they won't buy. And the company refused discounts.
• FTNT shares fell 22% yesterday
Firewall update cycle is 40-50% complete.
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY) shares are up 34% since its IPO.
The stock opened at $70 a share, up 56% from its IPO price of $45. The stock ended the session at $60, still up 34%.
Earlier this week, the company raised its expected IPO price range to $41 to $43, after initially setting a range of $35 to $39 a week earlier.
Stocks Premarket Post-Earnings
EXPE +17%
NTRA +15%
CART +14%
MP +8%
MNST +6%
XYZ+6%
TTWO +5%
GILD +3%
TEAM +0%
MSI -1%
RKLB -2%
KTOS -2%
SMR -2%
GDDY -3%
MCHP -6%
TWLO -11%
PINS -11%
TTD -29%
Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem's speech
- Under Armour's first-quarter earnings
Current Fundamental Reviews
• China: World Trade in U.S. Dollars (July).
Exports = +7.2% y/y (exp. +5.4% / prior +5.8%).
Imports = +4.1% y/y (exp. +4.1% / prior +1.1%).
China’s exports beat expectations in July, rising more than 7%; imports posted their biggest jump in a year — CNBC.
S&P affirmed China’s ratings at ‘A+/A-1’, with a stable outlook.
The stable outlook for China reflects expectations that the economy will return to self-sustaining growth of more than 4% over the next few years.
• US Labor Market Data.
Initial Jobless Claims = 226K (expected 221K / actual 219K).
Nonfarm Productivity q/q (Q2) = 2.4% (expected 1.9% / actual -1.8%).
Unit Labor Costs q/q (Q2) = 1.6% (expected 1.6% / actual 6.9%).
US: 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (July) = +3.1% (previous +3%).
Apollo's Thorsten Slok notes that the ISM service sector price data for July shows that service sector inflation pressures are increasing,
creating risks for further CPI gains in the coming months.
Christopher Waller has emerged as Trump's favorite to replace Powell as Fed chief.
He is valued for his willingness to base decisions on forecasts rather than current data and his deep understanding of the Fed system, sources said. He has not yet met Trump himself, but has discussed the job with his advisers, BBG.
• Trump recalled that new US tariffs on imports of goods from 60 countries came into effect yesterday.
• Lula da Silva to propose BRICS countries discuss response to US tariffs - RTRS.
The Brazilian president said he plans to meet with the leaders of the BRICS countries, starting with India and China, to discuss the possibility of a joint response to US tariffs.
• Trump, by introducing tariffs, risks destroying US-India relations and forcing it to strengthen ties with Russia and China — NYT.
• The Trump administration plans to reduce criticism of El Salvador, Israel and Russia over human rights violations — WP.
The publication has reviewed the draft of the State Department's annual human rights report. It is noted that the reports concerning these countries are significantly shorter than those prepared by the administration of former Democratic President Joe Biden.
• Indian PM Modi vows to 'never compromise' in face of 50% US tariffs - FT
• The US is negotiating with Asian countries (including India) to become their main supplier of oil and gas instead of Russia. US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright.
• US-Swiss trade deal talks collapse as Swiss president leaves White House without making statement
"Tariffs at current levels have a much bigger impact than the Fed's next 50 basis point move, but the latter is getting as much if not more attention," - Lyn Alden
• Current US tariffs are about $500 billion per year in additional “tax” on imports (from $3.3 trillion in volume at an average rate of ~15%). For comparison, raising the Fed rate by 50 bp has a much smaller effect - about $100 billion in impact on the deficit or 0.2-0.5% of GDP (~$140 billion).
The US expects to receive $50 billion per month from duties - US Commerce Secretary Latnik.
• Armenia is ready to transfer exclusive rights to the transit corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan - RTRS - to the United States.
Trump, Pashinyan and Aliyev will hold talks in the White House today.
• Trump team seeks resignation of top IEA official - Politico
The IEA constantly predicts the end of oil, gas, coal and everything else Trump loves.