Moderate growth on low inflation, tariff wars, company news and geopolitics
Latest stock market news
• Stocks edged higher on lower inflation, with semiconductors and Mag-7 stocks leading gainers, excluding AAPL.
The morning is unsettlingly quiet.
• A muted gain on Wall Street amid weak consumer price index data did little to boost Asian markets, leaving European investors with little cause for optimism.
One problem is that the inflation data, while offering some relief after a recent string of disappointing readings, won't translate directly into a decline in the PCE price index - the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures - because the decline was mostly in the services sector.
Another problem is that the February data does not fully reflect the impact of the wave of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
Ultimately, the biggest worry for markets is not inflation, but growth.
• Europe has found itself in Trump's crosshairs after the EU's threat of retaliatory measures was met with a warning of retaliatory tariffs from the United States.
It remains to be seen whether Trump's approach to Europe will mirror the "build-up and delay" strategy used with Canada and Mexico or the "tax by tax" model used with China.
The good news is that only a "small fraction" of EU target products are exported to the US, according to Germany's Kiel Institute.
• The UK continues to maintain a relatively low profile, holding off on immediate retaliatory tariffs but keeping all options open. This may be why sterling continues to rise steadily while the euro declines, albeit after a sharper rise.
• Most Americans think Trump's economic policies are too unpredictable, and even more expect prices to rise as a result. Warnings are also coming from corporate America, with airline Delta and retail giant Walmart warning that unusually high levels of economic uncertainty will hit their profits.
A potential de-escalation of Trump's trade war may be sown at home, rather than through retaliatory tariffs from major trading partners. However, a more than 10% drop in the S&P 500 in just three weeks does not appear to be prompting a rethink of U.S. policy.
• BoJ Chairman Ueda:
I would intervene in Japanese bond market if yields jump suddenly and exceptionally;
Core inflation still below 2%.
• Crypto is currently experiencing a hangover from the euphoria. Massive panic selling is underway, short-term holders are actively capitulating -- Glassnode review.
Deutsche Bank believes that the US BTC strategic reserve will set “international standards”.
• TSMC (TSM) has offered American companies Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) to buy stakes in a joint venture that will operate Intel factories.
• Tesla (TSLA) to start producing self-driving cars in 2026 - Musk Tesla's U.S. registrations fell 11% in January, the latest sign of weak demand and consumer response.
• Toyota (TM) is considering exporting products from the UK to the US to ease the impact of Trump's tariffs.
• OpenAI presented new tools for developing AI agents. All AI agents now have the ability to search for information on the Internet and local files, and autonomously control a PC.
• TikTok is introducing mandatory meditations for teens. After 10pm, the screen will lock and you will be asked to breathe while listening to calming music.
• Google (GOOG) has released Gemma 3, a new set of open-source AI models focused on efficiency. Google Debuts AI Model for Robotics - Bloomberg. That will help developers teach robots to respond to unfamiliar scenarios.
• Volkswagen may reorient production to the defense sector to meet the needs of the German army.
Against the backdrop of a sharp 50% decline in car exports, the company is considering using its free production capacity to produce military equipment.
• OPEC+ reports that the sharp rise in oil production in February was due to Kazakhstan significantly exceeding its quota.
• Vietnam's coffee output falls on drought, deepening crisis - Bloomberg Vietnam's coffee output this season is expected to be lower than last year due to poor weather, adding to a supply shortage that has pushed up global prices.
• Gold prices forecast to rise above $3,100 an ounce as Trump's 'tariff chaos' drives demand
• Roche signs $5.3 billion deal with Danish obesity drugmaker, NVO shares fall 4%
Roche has struck a new deal in the obesity area, allowing Novo Nordisk to step up competition in its own backyard.
• iRobot (IRBT) shares fell 36% after the Roomba maker warned about its ability to continue as a going concern.
• Groupon (GRPN) shares soared 43% after the company posted better-than-expected results and revenue guidance.
Groupon's adjusted EBITDA and revenue beat estimates in the fourth quarter as local accounts in North America grew.
• Palantir (PLTR) shares rose 7% after Walgreen and Heineken became new clients. The company unveiled a list of new clients it said would attend its AI event on Thursday.
• Binance has raised $2 billion from Abu Dhabi-based investment fund MGX, marking the largest investment ever in a cryptocurrency company, the first institutional deal for Binance, and the largest amount paid in stablecoins.
• INTC shares up 10% in premarket trading. Months after leaving Intel's board, Lip-Bu Tan is returning to the company as CEO.
Tan: "Under my leadership, Intel will become an engineering-focused company." "We will work hard to restore Intel's position as a world-class manufacturing company, to establish ourselves as a world-class foundry."
Tan left Intel's board in August amid reports that he disagreed with Pat Gelsinger's plan to keep Intel as a single company and spin off its manufacturing business into a separate subsidiary while still keeping it part of the chip giant. That means the market is hoping for a breakup of INTC.
• ADBE shares fall 4% premarket after earnings report. The company gave a weak outlook and investors do not see AI monetization.
• PATH shares fall 16% in premarket trading after the business automation software platform's sales forecast for next year fell short of Wall Street expectations, citing growing "global macroeconomic uncertainty" over the past few weeks.
• African payment system PAPSS plans to launch a foreign exchange market platform this year.
• Ukraine bets on US LNG as gas import needs grow.
• Canada will announce retaliatory tariffs on C$29.8 billion worth of U.S. goods, an official said.
• Jackson Square Aviation orders 50 A320neo family aircraft.
• French publishers and authors file lawsuit against Meta in artificial intelligence case.
• Inditex CEO says company is well positioned to withstand tariff uncertainty
• Kimmeridge expects Canada's oil and gas industry to pick up amid trade war and weak data.
• Amazon and Google sign deal to support tripling nuclear power capacity by 2050.
• A Russian court will hear Raiffeisen's appeal against the €2 billion fine on April 24.
• Moody's predicts improving prospects for banks in France, Germany and other countries.
• China's ICBC launches $11 billion tech innovation fund
• India seeks applications for recognition of self-regulatory body for invoice aggregators.
• Partners Group expects assets under management to exceed $450 billion by 2033.
• Venture capital firm Bessemer raises $350 million for second India fund.
• Bank of America is cutting 150 junior positions at its investment bank, sources say.
• Net inflows of funds from Italian asset managers in February doubled compared to last year to €6 billion.
• South African lender Absa forecasts mid-single-digit revenue growth.
Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- UK RICS Housing Market Survey (February)
- Sweden CPI (February)
- Eurozone Industrial Production (January)
- US PPI (February), Weekly Jobless Claims
Current Fundamental Reviews
• US: Consumer inflation (February) below expectations on all fronts.
CPI +2.8% y/y (expected +2.9% / previously +3%).
Core CPI +3.1% y/y (expected +3.2% / previously +3.3%).
US Pending Home Sales fell to an all-time low.
• The federal budget deficit for October-24 - February-25 was $1.1 trillion. This is $319 billion more than for the same period a year earlier. Democrats "had fun."
The US House of Representatives has approved a bill to finance the country's government until September 30 - Reuters.
• The EU is imposing mirror duties on $28 billion worth of US goods. Whiskey, motorcycles, metals, food products.
The amount is equal to the total value of European goods subject to the new US duties. The measure will come into force in April.
US President Donald Trump said Washington would respond to EU counter-tariffs and April 2 would be a "big day."
• Mexican President Sheinbaum has refused to respond to U.S. tariffs on metals and will wait until the April 2 deadline for the tariffs to take effect.
• Canada imposes retaliatory tariffs on US goods. A 25% tariff is being imposed on US imports worth $21 billion.
• Jens-Frederik Nielsen, leader of the Demokraatit (Democrats) party, which won the parliamentary elections in Greenland, said that “the island is not for sale” - Politico.
• China's navy is encircling Australia, forcing civilian flights to divert, NYT. China's warships have been sailing around the continent for a month, including entering and leaving its economic zone and conducting live-fire exercises.
• Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said US President Donald Trump's calls for talks with the Islamic Republic are a ploy that will lead to increased sanctions against Iran - Bloomberg.