Markets begin to calm down and look down amid tariff wars, company news and geopolitics
Latest stock market news
• The stock market is starting to calm down. Yesterday, US stock indices rose to 1% on a fairly broad front. The "Magic Seven" was weaker than the market, except for AAPL. The dollar, crypto and futures are calm this morning. Asia is also quiet.
• It's Tax Day in the United States, the deadline for most Americans to file their returns with Uncle Sam, but in the rest of the world there is far less clarity about which trading partners will pay U.S. tariffs tomorrow, let alone next quarter. Who will be caught cheating after U.S. President Donald Trump trashed the Internal Revenue Service is another matter, but Asian markets have picked up after Trump suggested he might offer relief on auto-related tariffs.
• Japan's Nikkei index rose for a second straight day as automakers gained, but stock futures pointed to a mixed or lower open in European and U.S. markets.
• Pharmaceuticals are likely to be the next sector to be hit by Trump's tariffs, a blow to European drugmakers such as Novo Nordisk, whose weight-loss drugs have become global bestsellers in recent years.
The Trump administration is continuing to investigate drug and potato chip imports as part of an effort to impose tariffs on those sectors, according to documents filed in the Federal Register on Monday.
• Consumers are getting nervous. Disappointing first-quarter results from luxury group LVMH on Monday were further evidence that U.S. consumers are growing nervous about the risks of a recession.
• The ever-changing tariff conversation has tarnished the safe-haven status of the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. The dollar hovered near a three-year low against the euro and a six-month low against the yen in Asian trade. Gold, the main haven asset, rose toward a record it touched on Monday.
• OPEC has cut its oil demand forecast for 2025-26 due to the trade war. It has also reduced its expected global economic growth for 2025 to 3% (previously - 3.1%).
• Trump orders Commerce Department to investigate semiconductor imports, could lead to new tariffs on chips - Politico
Such tariffs would have wide-ranging implications for Asian countries and global tech.
Trump says he will make an announcement on electronics tariffs this week.
• China has offered banks extra gold import quotas as domestic demand rises from both institutions and individuals amid escalating trade wars - BBG.
Asian gold ETFs (mostly Chinese) have attracted more inflows in the first 11 days of April than in all of Q1 2025.
Goldman Sachs sees gold at $3,700 on trade war and recession.
• Goldman has cut its forecast for Chinese stocks for the second time in a month. The MSCI China Index forecast for the next 12 months was cut to 75 from 81.
• Market sentiment is at an all-time low:
- For the week ending April 9, 58.9% of investors expect the market to fall in the next 6 months, according to the AAII survey,
- The week before it was 61.9%.
For comparison:
- At the peak of the 2022 bear market - 60.8%,
- During the 2008 crisis - 70.3%.
• BofA advises selling US stocks on rebounds until the Fed starts actively cutting rates and the US and China end the trade war.
• Trump's actions have left Apple (AAPL) on the brink of its worst crisis since Covid. So far, the company has managed to balance on the brink - BBG.
Apple plans to make at least 50 million iPhones in India this year, ramping up production to take advantage of a 90-day reprieve on U.S. tariffs.
APPLE (AAPL) became the global smartphone market leader for the first time in the first quarter of the year, taking a 19% share,
helped by the launch of the iPhone 16E and rising sales in developing countries - COUNTERPOINT RESEARCH.
• Tether CEO: USDT user base grew 13% in Q1 2025. Digital assets saw $795 million outflow last week, bringing the total outflow for the two weeks to $1.035 billion.
Total outflows since early February have reached $7.2 billion, almost completely offsetting annual inflows.
• The gap between Bitcoin futures and spot is narrowing, which could indicate a weakening of bearish sentiment, according to a CryptoQuant analyst.
• JPMorgan launches blockchain payments in British pounds. The new accounts allow for 24/7 transactions, including currency exchange even on weekends. The Kinexys unit, formerly known as Onyx, has already processed more than $1.5 trillion via blockchain.
• Visa (V) joins Paxos and Robinhood stablecoin consortium.
• Bloomberg: The euro is emerging as an alternative safe haven asset alongside bonds. The currency has risen to its highest level in three years, approaching $1.15, and hedge funds and analysts are already talking about a possible strengthening to $1.20 in the next three to six months.
• Analyst Nate Silver analyzed data from the world's leading countries and concluded that the best stock market growth was observed in Russia, followed by Hungary. Their impressive performance was observed against the backdrop of global economic turmoil, which has particularly affected Asian countries. The markets of China and the United States demonstrated worse results than the world average, since these two countries are the main participants in the trade war.
• Pfizer (PFE) is abandoning its danuglipron diet pill after a trial participant developed liver damage. It was the company's key anti-obesity drug that investors had been watching closely. Danuglipron was supposed to compete with drugs from (NVO) Novo Nordisk and (LLY) Eli Lilly, but now Pfizer is changing its strategy. The final-stage trial has been canceled and the company will focus on early-stage research.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) will be the first to manufacture American-made AI supercomputers in the U.S.
Nvidia announced a $500 billion investment plan to build and expand AI infrastructure in the U.S. through partnerships with TSMC and Foxconn.
• The world's largest Chinese manufacturer of batteries for electric vehicles CATL reported a 33% year-on-year increase in net profit in Q1.
• Webull (BULL) +375%
- A Robinhood-like broker for US retail investors,
they went public via a SPAC on Friday.
• Palantir (PLTR) completed a deal with the NATO Communications and Information Agency to deploy its Maven Smart System to NATO's Joint Force Command Operations,
sending Palantir shares up 5%.
• Intel sells majority stake in Altera.
INTC shares rise 3%.
• MicroStrategy reverts to selling only common shares to buy Bitcoin.
MSTR shares are up 4%.
Strategy bought another 3,459 BTC worth ~$285.8 million at an average price of ~$82,618.
• Marketwatch: Will Meta (META) Have to Ditch Instagram?
Massive Antitrust Case Looks to Upend Social Media
• Goldman Sachs (GS) reported first-quarter earnings and revenue
that beat Wall Street expectations, thanks to strong performance in fixed-income, foreign exchange and commodities.
Although there was no estimate for net interest income, Goldman was able to reduce its credit-loss reserves, contributing to its financial success.
• In a strategic move, President Trump is reportedly preparing an executive order that would allow the extraction of important metals from the Pacific Ocean seafloor. The initiative is aimed at countering China's dominance of battery minerals and rare earth supply chains, sending shares of MP Materials (MP) and TMC the Metals Company (TMC) higher in premarket trading.
• Longevity Health (XAGE) announced it will merge with 20/20 BioLabs in an all-stock transaction that is expected to be significantly accretive to its revenues.
The combined company aims to leverage synergies in diagnostics and bioaesthetics, strengthen its market position and improve operational efficiencies.
• LVMH reports 3% sales drop as core business shrinks
• Republican senators are asking the Trump administration to repeal a rule that would restrict global access to AI chips.
Seven Republican senators sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Friday calling on the administration to withdraw the Biden administration's Access to Artificial Intelligence Act at the last minute - Reuters
• Copper and related stocks rise as tariff deferral gives traders some relief.
• Bessent denied rumors about foreigners selling off Treasuries:
- There is no evidence that foreign governments are selling US government bonds
- There is no mass “dumping”
- Foreign competition has appeared at US government debt auctions
- Market fluctuations do not yet require intervention: the tools are there, but their application is still a long way off.
Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- U.K. labor market data for February.
- First-quarter earnings from J&J, Bank of America, United Airlines and Citigroup.
- U.S. import prices are expected to be unchanged in March after rising 0.4% in February.
- Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin to speak at the University of North Carolina and Fed Chair Lisa Cook to speak in Washington, D.C.
- Canada to report inflation for March, likely unchanged from the previous month at 2.6%.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Trump's economic policies are in many ways similar to the strategy of Argentine President Juan Peron of the 1940s and 1950s.
The actions of Peron and his political heirs led to a protracted economic crisis in Argentina, and the US risks facing similar consequences - WP.
• Musk's friend who destroyed USAID has left the Trump administration. American official Peter (Pete) Marocco was one of the most vocal opponents of funding foreign aid programs.
At the same time, media sources suggest that Marocco, who held the post of director of the foreign aid department at the State Department, could have been forcibly dismissed.
• National Economic Council Chairman Kevin Gassett stressed that the United States must move key manufacturing home to be fully prepared for any crisis.
According to him, this is critical to national security.
• Saudi Arabia plans to pay off Syria's debts to the World Bank, paving the way for approval of multimillion-dollar grants to help rebuild and support the country's public sector.
• Xi Jinping began his visit to Vietnam amid tough US tariffs on China. Beijing is seeking new ways to strengthen trade and supply chains in Southeast Asia. Vietnam, an important manufacturing hub for the US, is itself trying to avoid 46% tariffs, making the talks especially important.
Xi calls on Vietnam to unite against US bullying.
Vietnam and China signed 45 agreements during Xi's visit.
• EU wants new gas deal from US: After the White House suspended new tariffs, Europe is ready to resume talks on increasing supplies of American fuel, but wants more competitive prices in return.
• Iran says any future US sanctions relief must be guaranteed -- BBG
• European arms makers are overwhelmed with orders. The companies that make Storm Shadow missiles have orders until 2032.
• Gas supplies from Russia to the EU have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the war. In the first quarter of 2025, the main source of gas imports to the EU were pipeline supplies from Norway - 23.593 billion cubic meters. In second place was liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States - 18.393 billion cubic meters.
In third place were supplies from Russia at 10.015 billion cubic meters, the Euractiv portal reported, citing a report by the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.
However, large European companies have begun to talk about resuming gas imports from Russia - Reuters.
• White House adviser Hassett: restrictions on rare earth metals are under close scrutiny.
The issue is strategically important - the production of electronics, defense and green technologies depends on these materials.
• Bank of Japan chief: Trump tariffs increase uncertainty and will have negative impact on global and Japanese economy