Markets Await Liberation Day, Incredible Newsmax IPO, Company News and Geopolitics
Latest stock market news
• With less than 24 hours to go before US President Donald Trump unveils his retaliatory tariff plans to a nervous world, market action has slowed to a crawl as investors hunker down and minimise their risks in anticipation of a likely volatile response. Meanwhile, only gold prices are showing signs of life. Asian shares were choppy but held in tight ranges after Wall Street managed to end an equally volatile session with more confidence. Futures point to a muted open in Europe.
• Yesterday was the final day of the quarterly rebalance. Now in the opposite direction - the market bought MAGS and sold the defensive XLV. As a result, US stock indices rose slightly. Long-term US government bonds also rose in price. The dollar is stable.
• Investors have been focused for weeks on what Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day,” which is expected to bring dramatic new tariffs on allies and foes alike. The announcement in the White House Rose Garden is scheduled for 20:00 GMT on Wednesday. The threat of retaliation from other countries suggests the period of uncertainty is far from over. And whatever form Trump’s trade plan ultimately takes, tariffs do not all work equally.
The tariffs are set to go into effect immediately, leaving little room for negotiation and the possibility of widespread responses from affected countries. In short, expect potentially sharp moves in markets.
• Trade war fears: The devil is in the details of the trade plan after media reports suggested tariffs could be raised by around 20% on imports from almost every country, rather than targeting specific countries or products. Trump has already imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel and cars, while increasing duties on all goods from China. That has rattled markets as fears grow that a full-scale trade war could trigger a sharp slowdown in the global economy.
• Gold prices have soared in these uncertain times, reaching record highs above $3,000 an ounce. The yellow metal is up 19% this year, following a 27% gain in 2024, its strongest annual performance in more than a decade.
• Chinese regulators have approved licenses for two companies for the first time in history to operate autonomous passenger drones - flying taxis
Japan's Nikkei stock market has returned to 1989 levels - 35 years later.
• If you had invested in Japanese stocks at the peak of the late 1980s, you would only now be breaking even. In 1989, the Japanese market reached record highs amid an economic boom, but soon fell. The reason was a bubble in the real estate and stock markets, inflated by cheap credit and speculation.
• Goldman cut its forecast for the Stoxx Europe 600 to 510 points over a 3-month horizon from 560 previously due to tariffs.
• The Magnificent Seven index has fallen more than 20% from its January peak and is seemingly entering a bear market - FT.
• Newsmax (NMAX) shares are being hyped online - it held an IPO on Monday with an impressive start. The company's shares, which started at $10, soared to $265.
Newsmax is an American media company whose main distribution channels are television and radio, and whose income is generated through advertising. Such an unexpected jump in the traditional media market causes heated discussions.
• OpenAI, the developer of the popular ChatGPT, has raised $40 billion in new funding from SoftBank and other investors.
The round values the startup at $300 billion, according to a March 31 statement from the company.
• SoftBank will provide 75% of the funding, with the remaining 25% provided by Microsoft, Coatue Management, Altimeter Capital and Thrive Capital.
• Tether bought 8,888 BTC. At the turn of the quarters, Tether bought 8,888 BTC worth $735 million. This happened either on the last day of Q1 or the first day of Q2, depending on how you interpret the time zone.
• On April 5, the US will publish the results of an audit of digital assets. This will be the first-ever full report on the government's crypto reserves.
According to current estimates, the US has about 200,000 BTC (approximately $16 billion). The audit should clarify whether the state also owns XRP, SOL, ADA and other crypto assets.
• Mastercard is developing a platform for simple and secure transactions with digital assets - an analogue of Venmo, but for the blockchain.
The goal is to connect banks, users and businesses into a single network for working with cryptocurrencies, tokenized assets and DeFi.
• Tesla (TSLA) expected to report significant sales decline in Q1 2025 - BBG.
• Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds at the end of 2025 to 4%, down from its previous forecast of 4.35%.
• SpaceX has launched the first crewed mission into orbit around the Earth's poles. The crew is expected to spend three to five days in space, during which they will take part in 22 research experiments studying the effects of spaceflight and microgravity on human health.
• Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) announced a strategic move by acquiring a 50.1% stake in Angel Oak Companies, a firm known for its mortgage and investment banking.
The acquisition is part of Brookfield’s ongoing expansion into the private credit sector, its largest growth driver. Angel Oak, which manages more than $18 billion in assets, will continue to operate independently, offering Brookfield investors access to its specialized residential mortgage lending strategies.
• In the technology sector, Google (GOOG)-backed Lightmatter has unveiled a new photonic technology aimed at improving AI infrastructure.
The M1000 interposer and new chiplet are designed to improve connections between AI accelerators, marking a significant advance in semiconductor packaging. This innovation is expected to improve the efficiency of AI processing.
• In the airline sector, Jefferies downgraded several airlines, including American Airlines (AAL, -2%) and Delta Air Lines (DAL, -3%), to Hold, citing consumer disappointment and the potential impact of future fares.
The cautious stance reflects concerns about corporate spending cuts and a revised outlook for 2025.
• Becton Dickinson (BDX) is in talks with Thermo Fisher (TMO) and Danaher (DHR) to sell its life sciences unit.
The company is exploring a tax-free stock swap or potential spinoff, with plans to complete the transaction by next year.
• U.S. LNG exports rose in March, driven by capacity expansion at the Plaquemines plant. The U.S. exported 9.3 million tonnes of LNG in March, breaking the December 2023 record of 8.6 million tonnes, as production was supported by the ramp-up of Stage 1 production at Venture Global Inc.'s plant.
• Volkswagen, Stellantis and other carmakers fined $495 million for cartel deal with EU - Reuters
• Alibaba (BABA) is preparing to launch a flagship AI model as early as April, Bloomberg. Artificial intelligence companies have been releasing new products at a feverish pace in recent months as competition has intensified following the meteoric rise of Chinese company DeepSeek earlier this year.
• Progress Software (PRGS) shares jumped 12% on better-than-expected results from the AI company.
Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
Trump to announce retaliatory tariffs at 20:00 GMT
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Manufacturing in Europe continues to contract (indices below 50)
Eurozone - Manufacturing PMI (March) = 48.6 (previously 47.6)
Germany - Manufacturing PMI (March) = 48.3 (previously 46.5)
UK - Manufacturing PMI (March) = 44.9 (previously 46.9)
EUROZONE - Consumer Inflation CPI (March):
+2.2% y/y (expected +2.2% / previously +2.3%)
core CPI = +2.4% y/y (expected +2.5% / previously +2.6%)
• Latest US business activity data:
S&P Manufacturing PMI (March) = 50.2 (previously 52.7)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) = 49.0 (previously 50.3)
/ The ISM (Purchasing Managers Index) is one of the key indicators of the macroeconomic cycle. It is a monthly survey of supply chain managers, assessing orders, inventories and employment. A reading above 50 indicates economic growth, while a reading below indicates contraction.
US - JOLTS Job Openings (atd) = 7.568 million (approx. 7.69 million / previously 7.74 million 7.762 million).
Job openings hit their lowest level since September amid a cooling labor market.
The Atlanta Fed has lowered its forecast for US GDP for the first quarter of 2025 to -3.7%.
• Excluding gold imports, the decline will be -1.4%.
The reason is a slowdown in consumer spending.
• Trump's net worth has grown from $2.3 billion in 2024 to $5.1 billion in 2025, according to the Forbes USA ranking of the richest people on the planet
. The US president's most expensive asset is Trump Media and Technology Group with a net worth of $2.6 billion. His main assets also include:
- Mar-a-Lago ($368 million) - a private club resort;
- American Golf Clubs ($338 million) - a network of ten golf courses in six states;
- Trump National Doral Miami ($248 million) - a golf resort.
• White House: "Trump to deliver remarks in Rose Garden." That's when the new tariffs are expected to be announced. That is, after the stock market closes, to reduce the immediate impact. Will we be surprised on Thursday?
• Barkin (Fed): "Bond market is pricing in higher recession risk."
• White House: Trump plans to visit Saudi Arabia in May. He may meet with Putin there.
• The EU intends to negotiate tariffs with the US from a position of strength, relying on the size of its market and technological achievements - von der Leyen.
The EU has prepared a plan for tough measures in response to US tariffs, but does not want to apply them yet, hoping for a negotiated solution.
• Democratic approval ratings remain low, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, The Hill. Only 37% of voters in March said they approved of the party, up 1%, or within the margin of error, from the previous month.
• China sends Trump signal: Trump's tariffs on Russian oil will worsen US ties with China and India - China Daily.
• The Chinese army has begun comprehensive military exercises around Taiwan, Shi Yi, a spokesman for the PLA's Eastern Combat Zone Command, said.
• Up to 300,000 people could die: Japan is preparing for a powerful earthquake of magnitude 8-9 on the Richter scale. Which will happen with an 80% probability. Evacuation may be required for 1.23 million Japanese - 1% of the country's total population. The mega-earthquake could cause damage of $1.8 trillion.
• Finland will increase defence spending to at least 3% of GDP by 2029.
• Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen will meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week in the first high-level talks since Trump's re-election and renewed interest in Greenland - FT