Markets are confused by tariffs, high volatility, company news and geopolitics
Latest stock news
• Monday's stormy trading ended in zero. Fears (hopes) about Black Monday and the collapse were not justified. But the bounce up didn't work either.
But the price of long-term US government bonds fell sharply. 4% per day for 10-year-old girls turned out to be a strong limit. And in the conditions of inflationary and even stagflationary insurances, yields are decreasing.
But the increase in profitability supported the US dollar and helped gold fall to $3,000.
In the morning, the situation in Asia calmed down a bit and we see a 1-2% increase in futures on US stock indices.
Bitcoin returned to $80 thousand.
• European investors, still in a state of shock after the fall of regional stock indices by almost 12% in three days, wake up and see that the futures market indicates a growth of more than 3%.
• President Donald Trump practically did not back down from his attacks on the alleged disparities in trade, he even intensified the pressure on China, threatening to introduce additional duties in the amount of 50%, as a result of which the total amount will significantly exceed 100%.
• Wall Street didn't have the best day, although an overall unchanged close would be a nice respite after a 10% drop over the previous two sessions. Volatility was the highlight of Monday's trading, with the VIX fear index (.VIX) rising above 60 for just the second time since the pandemic began.
All of this raises doubts about whether the rebound in markets will last, and even a 3% rise in the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index opens a new tab will not be able to offset much of the fall after Trump's announcement of tariffs on "Liberation Day" last Wednesday.
• However, a look at the Asian markets quickly reveals a clear winner: Japan. One of the first signs that Trump's tariffs may be just a starting point for negotiations is that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading a team that will hold trade talks with Tokyo in the coming days.
At the same time, there is a definite differentiation by geographical regions. The 6% rise in Japan's stock market (.TOPX), opens a new tab, contrasts sharply with the 5% sell-off in Taiwan (.TWII), opens a new tab, which faces 32% fees and is heavily dependent on chip exports.
• Asian emerging markets were punished by some of Trump's highest tariff rates, while the collapse of stocks does not weaken. Thailand's benchmark index (.SETI), opens a new tab, fell to a five-year low, while Indonesia returned after a one-week hiatus to a 9% drop in its stock market and a record low for the rupiah.
• The journalist asked Trump if there is a limit to the pain in the market that he is not ready to endure. Trump answered that the question is stupid.
He added that he does not want anything to fall, but sometimes it is necessary to take "medicine" to correct the situation, because the United States has long suffered from other countries.
• Yesterday, SP500 traded as "Fartcoin" - BBG. First, they remembered the false news from the White House about the delayed introduction of tariffs on fake news (the news appeared on CNBC), and then when they found out the truth, they deleted it.
• Audi stops its deliveries to the US due to US tariffs, - Automobilwoche. All cars imported into the country after April 2 will be detained and temporarily not handed over to dealers.
• Tom Lee admitted a mistake in Trump's assessment of "Liberation Day" (tariff day), saying that the White House violated the basic principle of capitalism. However, he noted that stock sales are overvalued and the probability of de-escalation is high.
A Goldman Sachs analyst says that earlier such collapses in the market united world leaders to stabilize the situation.
But now world players are interested in strengthening sales, as this increases the cost of the US tariff policy, increasing the chances of its revision.
• Peter Schiff advised Saylor. "If you don't want to allow a collapse below the average of $68,000, you'd better get a loan truck today and go all in."
• Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell below what Howard Latnick called "never this cheap" ($200).
The global long/short ratio decreased to 165.8%, which is close to the minimum for the last 5 years.
• Head of the ECB Lagarde declared the need to strengthen control over the system of digital payments in the EU and reduce dependence on foreign platforms such as Visa, Mastercard, PayPal and Alipay.
• Chinese BYD launched its premium brand Denza in Europe. Denza sales in Europe will begin at the end of the year with the EV version of the Z9 GT sports utility vehicle with a capacity of 1,000 horsepower, and at the beginning of 2026 - with the hybrid version.
• General Motors (GM) faces potential revenue problems. Tariffs threaten to reduce its free cash flow by 20% and reduce adjusted profit for 26 financial hours by 50%.
• MicroStrategy (MSTR) reported an unrealized loss on its digital assets of $5.91 billion for Q1 2025.
First of all, due to a significant drop in the price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD).
This loss is expected to lead to a net loss for the quarter.
MSTR shares fell 9% yesterday and rose 2% in the premarket.
• Shares of cybersecurity companies such as Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) are seen as potential hedges for technology investors amid tariff uncertainty.
Analysts suggest that these companies may outpace other technology sectors as investors look for safer options.
• Mesa Air Group (MESA) announced a merger with Republic Airways to create a leading regional airline.
The transaction for the sale of all shares aims to increase the scale and financial indicators of the combined company with an expected revenue of about $1.9 billion.
• Microsoft's joint venture (MSFT) Wicresoft is closing its operations in China, which will result in the layoff of about 2,000 employees. The move is part of Microsoft's strategy to end outsourcing after-sales services in China amid rising geopolitical tensions.
• JP Morgan, BofA and Oppenheimer cut their annual target for the S&P 500.
Oppenheimer cut its target for the benchmark index to 5,950 from 7,100.
BofA cut its target to 5,600 from 6,666, making it one of the lowest on Wall Street.
JP Morgan - up to 5,200 from 6,500. In the worst case scenario, a drop to 4,000 is expected.
• Journalists disassembled the iPhone 16 Pro and calculated the cost of all parts. Previously, the production of one smartphone cost $549, now - $846: in the final price plus $300 plus taxes.
Key events that may affect the markets on Tuesday:
- The head of the ECB, Olla Rehn, will speak in Helsinki.
- German Finance Minister Christian Lindner speaks in Berlin.
- ECB board member Luis de Guindos speaks at the meeting of the Spanish Banking Association in Madrid.
- Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Claire Lombardella, speaks in London.
- Head of the Riksbank Erik Thedeen talks about the economy in Stockholm.
- Governor of the Bank of Norway Ida Walden Bach speaks in Oslo.
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks in Provo, Utah.
Current fundamental reviews
• Trump. "If China does not reverse its 34% increase on top of its already long-term trade tariffs by tomorrow, April 8, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL tariffs on China of 50% starting on April 9. In addition, all negotiations with China regarding the meetings they have invited with us will be suspended! Negotiations with other countries that have also invited meetings will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this issue!"
• Trump. "Oil prices have fallen, interest rates have fallen (the slow Fed should cut rates!), food prices have fallen, there is NO INFLATION, and the long-offended USA receives billions of dollars a week from rogue countries at existing tariffs. And this despite the fact that the most offended of them, China, whose markets are collapsing, just raised its tariffs by 34% in addition to its long-term ridiculously high tariffs (plus!), did not heed my warning to the rogue countries not to retaliate. They have already made enough money, taking advantage of the good old USA! Our past "leaders" are guilty of allowing this and many other things to happen to our country. WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”.
• Trump calls on Europe to pay reparations to the USA: "We set big tariffs for Europe. They sit down at the negotiating table. They want to talk, but there will be no conversation until they pay us a lot of money on an annual basis - not only for the present, but also for the past."
• Latnyk: Trump's policy is "worth it", even if it leads to a recession. Today, Trump will hold a "rousing rally" for House Republicans and major sponsors, Axios.
• Time to tone down the rhetoric a bit. More than 50 countries are negotiating tariffs. Trump is ready to listen to trading partners if they offer favorable deals - White House.
• Trump's adviser on trade Navarro: mutual reduction of tariffs by other countries is not enough. A more serious problem is cheating that goes beyond duties.
• The EC will implement the first package of retaliatory measures against the USA on April 15, the next one on May 15 if there is no progress in the negotiations - the EC.
The European Union is expected to respond to US tariffs on aluminum and steel on April 9 - Politico.
• Indonesia is considering the possibility of increasing the volume of imports of American goods. To convince President Trump to reconsider the decision to impose tariffs. - Minister-Coordinator for Economic Affairs of Indonesia Airlangga Hartarto.
• The EU will discuss the creation of a fund for the purchase of military equipment. A fund called "European Defense Mechanism" (EDM) will buy military equipment, charging participants for its use. EDM will also be able to issue loans and accept non-EU countries such as Great Britain, Ukraine and Norway as participants.
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Melona plans to meet with Trump at the White House on April 16.
The purpose of the negotiations is to achieve a halving of "reciprocal" duties between the European Union and the United States thanks to good relations with the American leader.
• The new tariff of 34% this year will put pressure on China's GDP by at least 0.7 percentage points - Goldman Sachs.
We expect that China will significantly speed up measures to mitigate the DCP. The Chinese authorities are discussing measures to stabilize the economy and markets against the background of tariff pressure from US President Donald Trump.
• According to Bloomberg, management and key officials are considering the possibility of an accelerated launch of incentives to support consumption, and some of these steps were planned even before the introduction of tariffs.
• JPMorgan: The Fed may cut interest rates urgently. Bob Michel from JPMorgan Asset Management believes that the Fed will have to cut rates before the May meeting. The global index of economic policy uncertainty reached the highest level in history