Macroeconomic review of economies, corporate news from NVDA, AAPL, MSTR, ACN and other companies

• In contrast to the world's major central banks, the Fed appears positively hawkish. Even the Bank of Japan, which has been a leader in raising rates while its peers cut rates or prepare to cut them, took a dovish approach last week when it tabled quantitative tightening at its July meeting. The Bank of England now looks set to begin cutting rates in August, with the Swiss National Bank setting the pace with two successive cuts.

• US economic growth is slowing down
- The number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell from 243 thousand to 238 thousand (235 thousand were expected).
- Philadelphia manufacturing activity fell from 4.5 to 1.3 points (an increase to 4 was expected).
- The number of housing permits issued fell from 1.44 million to 1.386 million year on year (an increase to 1.45 million was expected).

• Japanese consumer inflation rose at a faster pace in May and remained well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.

• Consumer confidence in the UK rose in June amid falling inflation. Research group GfK's consumer confidence barometer rose to minus 14 in May, the highest level since November 2021.
But Rishi Sunak still has no chance of remaining prime minister after the elections in two weeks. Labor will return to power again.

• Germany's budget problems are preventing a complete buyout of the Tennet power grid. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ruling coalition has abandoned a plan to buy the entire German grid unit of Tennet Holding BV after the cost proved too high for the government's limited finances.

• US regulators disagree on whether to issue a new draft to raise bank capital - Reuters. U.S. banking regulators are debating how to move forward on rules to make it easier to raise bank capital. However, some of them want to get additional feedback from Wall Street.

• Citi believes artificial intelligence will eliminate more jobs in banking than in any other sector - Bloomberg. Because technology is poised to disrupt consumer finance and make workers more productive.

• Turkey records its largest monthly budget surplus ever, and the government is moving to improve public finances in addition to monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation.

• Denmark lures Lego and family businesses with tax cuts. The Danish government wants to cut taxes and ease rules for family-owned companies as it seeks to ensure national treasures such as Lego A/S remain in the Scandinavian country.

• China kept its main annual lending rate at 3.45%. Pressure on the yuan limits the scope for monetary policy easing.

• Hezbollah threatens Israel and Cyprus with “war without restrictions” - FT. Israel uses Cyprus airports.

• South Korea fired warning shots after North Korea's third invasion this month. Tensions between the Koreas have reached their highest level in years.

• The Swiss Central Bank, as expected, lowered its key rate by 25 bp. to 1.25% from 1.50%.

• A third of US CFOs believe US elections influence investment decisions, survey finds - Bloomberg
Monetary policy, inflation and labor market remain top concerns for CFOs over next 12 months
Donald Trump's re-election campaign outperformed President Joe Biden in May more than $60 million
The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee combined to raise a hefty $85 million in May and at the end of the month reported $212 million in the bank.
The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee said they raised $141 million in May, thanks in large part to Trump's guilty plea to 34 felonies. Incl. Billionaire Timothy Mellon has donated a staggering $50 million for an undisclosed amount. Trump proposes green cards for foreign graduates of US colleges.
Trump's U-turn on Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric.

• NVDA shares fell 3.5% yesterday. Nvidia has returned the title of the most valuable company to Microsoft.

• AAPL is looking for a local AI partner in China. The company has held talks with Baidu, Alibaba and Baichuan AI to help launch Apple Intelligence in the country.

• Central Banks expect to buy more gold this year amid pessimism about the dollar - WSJ.

• Traders are betting that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in August - Bloomberg.
This happened after politicians announced their readiness to begin easing monetary policy.

• WSJ: India has outperformed China in stock market performance. India was able to overtake China in terms of stock market performance: from the end of 2019 to June 18, 2024, the MSCI India index grew by 110%, while the largest emerging stock market, MSCI China, fell by 30% over the same period, The Wall Street Journal calculated. .

• Anthropic released a new artificial intelligence model three months after the previous one. Anthropic, a startup backed by Google and Amazon.com, on Thursday released an updated artificial intelligence model and new layout to improve user productivity.

• Paris now continues the meme campaign with Atos becoming a chat favorite. The logic-defying swings in Atos SE shares suggest Paris is experiencing some of the meme-stock craze seen in the US.

• Hertz begins selling $750 million in debt to strengthen balance sheet - Bloomberg. The company is trying to strengthen its balance sheet after a mistake with its electric vehicle fleet.

• Morgan Stanley looks at Latin America as global tensions rise - Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley is increasing its investments in Latin America as geopolitical conflicts in other parts of the world give the region increasing importance in the global economy.

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) bought approximately $786 million in Bitcoin. For funds received from the sale of convertible bonds.

• Supermarket chain Kroger (KR) beat forecasts as grocery demand remained strong. The company has benefited from the fact that demand for lower-priced products remains strong. However, the shares quickly ate away the optimism and eventually fell by 3%.

• Accenture (ACN) reported mixed results. Increasing adoption of artificial intelligence is offsetting slow business growth.
But ACN shares rose 7% as they approached the report after falling heavily.

• UAE renewable energy producer Masdar has agreed to buy Terna Energy SA. As part of a deal worth 2.4 billion euros ($2.6 billion) to increase its capacity in Europe.

• The United States is expecting a record number of travelers for the Fourth of July holiday. Analysts predict gasoline prices will continue to fall through July 4 and then stabilize this summer if a forecast busier-than-ever hurricane season does not impact oil production and refineries along the Gulf Coast.

• For the first time in a long time, there was a flow of capital from Growth to Value. This is a good sign for a bull market. But we'll see next week if it sticks.

• Today, large quarterly options expirations may add to volatility.

Today

- Triple expiration of stock options, stock index futures and stock index option contracts. Volatility is possible.
- FactSet Research Systems (FDS) Report
- S&P Global to release Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indices for June; National Association of Realtors to report existing home sales for May; and the Conference Board will release an index of leading economic indicators for May.