Latest Stock Market News, Markets Awaiting Liberation Day, Corporate and Geopolitical Events
Latest stock market news
• The morning drop in US stock indices was bought out, which gives bulls hope for continued growth. However, it should be taken into account that this could simply be a rebalance at the transition between quarters. The weakness of small-cap stocks and the strength of Value stocks are indicative.
The rebalance was from Attack to Defense. Everything is calm in the morning. Gold continues to rise in price and Bitcoin is growing by 2% above $83 thousand.
• The deep breath global markets are taking ahead of Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement looks set to continue into the European session, with futures pointing to gains. Wall Street's relatively brief respite was reinforced in Asia, with some markets such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea jumping 1% or more after Monday's sharp declines. But nerves are still high as Supreme Safe Haven Gold hits record highs for the fourth straight season.
To be more precise, nothing has really changed: We are still no wiser about what Trump is going to announce on Wednesday. Any expectations that trading partners would be able to negotiate were apparently dashed by the US president’s announcement on Sunday night that essentially every country would be hit with tariffs on each other.
Late Monday, the White House released an encyclopedic list of foreign policies and regulations it considers trade barriers.
Trump has said he is willing to accept higher consumer prices at home to restore fairness in global trade, even as recent high CPI readings have heightened market fears of stagflation.
Raising bets on a potential economic slowdown from tariffs, Goldman raised its estimate of the likelihood of a recession to 35% and predicted three Fed rate cuts this year.
• US jobs data: There's plenty of information expected this week on the health of the US economy, particularly the labor market, with the JOLTS report due today, the ADP report a day later, and monthly payrolls data on Friday, when Fed Chairman Jay Powell also speaks on the economic outlook.
• In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde and fellow ECB member Philip Lane will speak separately at a conference in Frankfurt today, where data on consumer prices, manufacturing PMI and the eurozone unemployment rate will be released.
• The UK will also release its manufacturing PMI and the Bank of England's Megan Green will give a keynote speech at the Royal Economic Society in London.
• Meanwhile, French far-right politician Marine Le Pen plans to quickly appeal her embezzlement conviction, which bars her from running in the 2027 presidential election. Le Pen, a front-runner to succeed Emmanuel Macron, maintains her innocence and calls the ruling politicized.
Le Pen's five-year ban on holding public office cannot effectively be suspended by appeal, although she retains her seat in parliament until the end of her term.
• Gold hits record high at >$3,170 an ounce. Central bank purchases and ETF demand are supporting gold prices.
Goldman Sachs forecasts gold could trade at $4,500 and expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, by 25 bps, instead of the two previously forecast.
• Agreement to sell TikTok will be concluded by April 5, - Trump. Back in January of this year, Trump set a deadline for finding a new - non-Chinese - owner for the app in the US.
• Morgan Stanley believes that robotics and physical AI will start generating revenue earlier than expected. Morgan Stanley analysts revised their forecast after the NVIDIA GTC conference, where it became clear that investments in this area are already active and fit into the current business cycle.
• Hut 8, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. created American Bitcoin, a company for industrial mining and strategic accumulation of Bitcoin.
• FTX to start paying out compensation over $50,000. Liquidators of the bankrupt exchange FTX will start paying out compensation for claims of $50,000 and above from May 30.
According to FTX attorney Andrew Ditderich, the funds for the payments will be taken from the $11.4 billion accumulated since the bankruptcy.
• The US government has no plans for Dogecoin (DOGE). Musk denied rumors about possible government use of DOGE.
He called Dogecoin “the people’s crypto,” but emphasized that this is not a serious initiative.
• Japanese stocks end quarter with biggest drop since Covid - BBG
• Goldman Sachs Group analysts have raised their estimate of the probability of a recession in the US economy in the next twelve months from 20% to 35%.
The change in forecast, among other things, reflects a sharp deterioration in consumer and business confidence and statements from the White House that “indicate an increased willingness to tolerate economic weakness in the near term in an effort to implement its policies,” the analysts note.
• Circle is preparing for an IPO, with filing expected in late April.
• Tesla offers 3-year interest-free loans on updated Model Y in China.
• Mr. Cooper Group (COOP) shares rose sharply after it agreed to be acquired by Rocket Companies (RKT) for $9.4 billion. The acquisition would create a company that would service a significant portion of U.S. mortgages, strengthening Rocket's AI-powered platform.
• Nokia (NOK) has reached a patent agreement with Amazon (AMZN), resolving a lawsuit over video technology used in Amazon's streaming services. The terms remain confidential, but the agreement ends disputes in several jurisdictions.
• Arm (ARM) plans to increase its share of the data center processor market to 50% by 2025. Despite the recent drop in its stock price, Arm's technology, known for its lower power consumption, positions the company well against competitors like Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD).
• Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A, LGF.B) received a rating upgrade from JP Morgan as the company plans to split its Starz and Lionsgate Studio businesses. The split is expected to drive up the company's value and improve investor sentiment.
• AT&T (T) declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2775 per share, which has been stable for thirteen quarters, keeping the forward yield at 3.94%. This stability continues to attract income-oriented investors.
• Sempra (SRE) plans to sell some energy infrastructure assets in Mexico to fund its five-year capital investment plan as the company seeks to simplify its business and focus on investments in regulated utilities in Texas and California.
• Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) has authorized a $50 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in the company's financial position and future prospects.
• The Hang Seng Tech Index fell amid global market uncertainty.
• Motorola Solutions (MSI) announced the acquisition of InVisit, strengthening its Avigilon Alta security suite.
The deal, expected to close in Q2 2025, will expand Motorola's enterprise security solutions portfolio.
• TSMC (TSM) plans to create 7,000 jobs in Taiwan with a new plant, continuing its expansion despite concerns about its investments in the U.S.
The plant will produce advanced 2nm chips.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fell 7% on their second day of trading. CoreWeave's life as a public company has gotten off to a rocky start.
GlobalFoundries (GFC) and Taiwanese chipmaker UMC are considering a merger, Nikkei reports.
The combined company would create a larger U.S.-based firm with a global manufacturing footprint.
• U.S. crude oil production fell to an 11-month low in January, EIA data showed. U.S. crude oil production fell 305,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January to 13.15 million bpd, the lowest since February 2024.
• Shares of biotech company Moderna (MRNA) fell 9% after FDA official Peter Marks resigned. The resignation of FDA top official Peter Marks is causing concern on Wall Street as he awaits his replacement.
• Uranium Market Freezes as Trump Tariff Threats Spook Buyers - Bloomberg. U.S. nuclear power plants, spooked by Trump's tariff threats, are slowing purchases.
• Major commodity traders Gunvor and Vitol are expecting significant volumes of Russian-produced aluminium to be removed from storage facilities approved by the London Stock Exchange - RTRS.
Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, CPI, Unemployment Rate.
- ECB Lagarde and Lane speak.
- UK Manufacturing PMI.
- Bank of England's Green speaks.
- US JOLTS report.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Macron believes the euro could overthrow the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
• Inflation in Germany 2.2% y/y (expectation 2.2%/ pop. 2.3%).
• Fresh US Chicago PMI business activity indicators. 47.6 (exp. 45.5/prev. 45.5)
• US President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia in May for his first overseas visit, Axios reported, citing sources.
• Elon Musk has called for the Federal Reserve to be shut down once and for all.
He wonders why there are thousands of people working there if no one really understands what they are doing.
Musk also wants a live feed from Fort Knox to make sure the gold is still there. After all, he says, it belongs to the American people.
Musk: "Mars will be part of America."
• EU considers closing European market to US goods in response to Trump tariffs - El País.
• 'Time to punish Orban': New German government to demand restrictions on Hungary for violating EU principles - Politico
• Iran's Supreme Leader: The likelihood of a US strike on Iran from outside is low, and any attempt to destabilize the situation from within the country will be met with a tough response. This is how he commented on Trump's threat to bomb Iran if Tehran and Washington do not reach an agreement on the nuclear program.
• The leader of the French far-right Marine Le Pen and eight members of the European Parliament were found guilty of embezzling public funds in the case of European assistants - Euronews.
Le Pen was sentenced to 4 years of imprisonment, 2 of which were suspended. And an immediate loss of her voting rights for 5 years. The court's verdict excludes her from running in elections in France for 5 years.
Le Pen must also pay a fine of 100 thousand euros.
Le Pen is appealing the court's decision.
• Xi Jinping will visit Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia in early April. US President Donald Trump's possible introduction of tariffs on Russian oil will not affect its supplies to China - Chinese Foreign Ministry.
• US to raise military presence in Japan to wartime command level - Pentagon chief during visit to Tokyo.