Latest stock market events and news, US-Europe deal result, geopolitical reviews
Latest stock market news
• The euro fell yesterday in response to the US-EU deal to 1.16 against the dollar.
A strong dollar = weak gold, which is hovering around $3,300.
The US stock market took the news of the US-EU trade deal calmly yesterday. Stock indices fluctuated around zero.
Semiconductors were the growth leaders in anticipation of CAPEX growth and on the news from AMD about raising prices for their leading chips. TSLA (+3%) also showed good growth, which almost closed the reporting gap down. We should also note the growth of the Oil & Gas E&P industry (on average by 2% - on Trump's threats to Putin) and Computer Hardware (also by 2-3%, only SMCI gave +10%). And NKE (+4%) pleased investors on an upgrade from JPMorgan.
The news about the increase in borrowing by the US Treasury was already in the price of government bonds after the debt ceiling was raised on July 5 (otherwise TLT would now cost $89, not $86).
Crypto is stabilizing in anticipation of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (or Clarity Act, HR 3633) being passed in the US by September 30.
Everything is calm on the markets this morning. Only crypto is under pressure from sellers. But it will probably remain unsettled here until the Clarity Act is passed.
• European stock futures firmed slightly, with the single currency stabilizing just below $1.1600. The euro's precipitous fall was not entirely unexpected given how active the euro long/dollar short trades have been, and there is a suspicion that speculators will soon start selling the dollar again. After all, from Friday, American consumers will be paying a minimum 15% tax on all imports into the country for the foreseeable future.
This tax will reduce demand and profitability at home, while eating into export earnings worldwide. It is not for nothing that such a policy is called "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy.
There is also the rather naive notion that such “deals” guarantee a period of certainty. Consider how Trump suddenly gave Russia 10-12 days to move toward a ceasefire with Ukraine, after setting a 50-day deadline earlier this month. This didn’t seem to be planned. Trump simply said it off the cuff at a press conference at his golf club in Scotland. If that deadline can be changed on a whim, who’s to say that any agreement on these trade deals can’t be changed on his whim.
• China and Tech Earnings: Trump has seen how trade and tariffs can dominate the global news cycle; he won’t be letting that go anytime soon. For example, talks with China are set to continue in Stockholm today, and everyone is expecting the deadline for reaching a deal to be extended by another 90 days. That, just in case, would give Trump time to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and personally broker another of the biggest deals in history.
• For its part, Wall Street remains in its own world, counting on upbeat large-cap results this week to justify the highest valuations since the late 1990s. Meta and Microsoft are due to report on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon the next day. A number of European companies also report earnings today.
• The US Treasury plans to raise $1.007 trillion from the sale of government bonds in the third quarter of 2025.
This is $453 billion more than the previous estimate.
This amount includes $449 billion in government bonds that were not placed in the second quarter.
In the fourth quarter, the expected placement is $590 billion.
On July 5, the US debt ceiling was raised from $36.1 trillion to $41 trillion. The increase in the debt ceiling opens up the possibility of placing additional volumes of US government bonds, which was closed in the second quarter after reaching the ceiling.
In fact, the US Treasury is reaching an additional supply of US government bonds in the amount of about $2 trillion per year. Even if these are mainly short-term government bonds. The question is still - who will buy such a volume?
• Over the past month, ETFs have recorded an inflow of almost $100 billion and are moving towards last year's record.
American stocks and crypto funds were the leaders in investment.
June also saw the launch of a record 108 new ETFs — the first time in history that more than 100 funds were launched in a month.
• Schiff criticizes Trump's new trade deal with the EU, believing that it puts the United States at a disadvantage - Americans will pay high tariffs, but Europeans will not.
• Goldman sees Chinese stocks up 11% on potential trade deal with US.
• Oppenheimer raised its 2025 year-end SP500 forecast to 7,100 from 5,950.
The SP500 is now likely to reach 7,200 next year — Morgan Stanley.
• Bloomberg Economics: The weakening of the yuan against major currencies since Trump's return to the White House makes Chinese goods more competitive on the global market.
This will help Chinese companies survive the difficulties associated with U.S. tariff policies.
Last week, Trump again expressed his displeasure with the weakening yuan.
• Bangladesh to buy 25 Boeing (BA) aircraft to reduce trade deficit with US - The Daily Star
• German carmakers to lose €10bn due to Trump tariffs – FT.
• Goldman Sachs expects the new tariffs to push inflation above 3%, despite a decline in the underlying dynamics to 2%.
• Meta Superintelligence Labs now has about 3,400 employees, - The Information.
• Since June, 98 companies have raised $43 billion to buy BTC and other cryptocurrencies - twice as much as all U.S. IPOs in 2025 combined.
• Samsung Electronics has signed a multi-year, $16.5 billion deal to make chips for Tesla.
Samsung's new giant Texas plant will be specifically designed to make Tesla's next-generation AI6 chip. The strategic importance of this cannot be overstated, Musk said.
The supply of AI chips supported Samsung shares (+3.5%), but the company is still catching up with SK Hynix and Micron in the HBM segment.
• Trump Media has invested $300 million in a BTC-linked options strategy that could potentially benefit from BTC price movements.
The company currently holds about $2 billion in crypto assets, making it one of the few public companies to use such leverage — BBG.
• Ray Dalio, on CNBC's Master Investor podcast, recommended allocating 15% of a portfolio to BTC or gold for better diversification and risk/return balance.
While he personally prefers gold, Dalio also holds BTC, noting the limited supply and transaction benefits.
• Hedge funds are actively increasing long positions in gold futures and options – BBG.
• BofA said it is seeing relatively negative customer sentiment ahead of Apple's (AAPL) earnings report
due to tariffs and regulatory pressure on the company in some countries.
The report is due July 31.
• GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) will pay Hengrui Pharma $0.5 billion up front and up to $12 billion in milestones for 12 experimental drugs in respiratory, immunological and oncological medicine. Hengrui - up to 4 years.
• Huawei unveiled the CloudMatrix 384 cluster on its own 910C, which outperforms Nvidia GB200 in certain tasks.
The company is gaining strength in AI hardware despite US export restrictions.
• First National Financial (FNLIF) to acquire Birch Hill & Brookfield for C$2.9 billion (C$48/share, 17x P/E); co-founders to retain minority stake. Closes Q4 2025.
• Nice (NICE) acquires startup Cognigy for $955 million; integrates into CXone platform - bet on automated call centers supports demand for “human” AI interaction.
• Alibaba (BABA) enters Quark AI Glasses: real-time translation and voice control to replicate Ray-Ban Meta's success in Asian markets.
• Tether's gold stablecoin XAUT's market cap is skyrocketing, reflecting strong demand for gold - CT.
• The largest public miner MARA attracted $950 million, part of which will go towards purchasing BTC for its balance.
• PayPal (PYPL) Allows US Merchants to Accept Payments in More Than 100 Cryptocurrencies, - Fortune.
• Figma (FIG) is set to IPO this week.
The company has raised its expected offering price from $25-28 to $30-32. I was planning to buy at $30 with the goal of selling at $40.
However, record highs in the U.S. stock market are pushing the IPO price higher and higher, leaving less room for IPO speculators.
Space-based Firefly (FLY) is also set to go public.
• Whirlpool (WHR) shares fall 14% in premarket trading after earnings.
The appliance maker saw its quarterly profit fall and rivals rush to import more of their products ahead of tariffs.
Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- U.S. data on job openings, June trade balance and consumer confidence from the Conference Board.
- The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Trump: Global tariff rate will be around 15-20%.
The European Commission president has unveiled details of a new trade deal with the US:
A single tariff of 15% will apply to most sectors.
This is a “hard ceiling”, with no possibility of further increases. “0 for 0” tariff policy on a range of goods: all aircraft and components, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, certain chemicals, generics, agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials. The list will gradually expand.
• Steel and aluminum: joint fight against global oversupply. Quotas and tariff reductions will be introduced.
Energy: the EU will buy American LNG instead of Russian, as well as nuclear fuel. Purchase volume is $250 billion for 3 years.
• AI chips: The EU will use American chips for AI. This is a framework agreement, technical details are still being worked out.
At the same time, the EU admitted that it does not have the authority to fulfill its promise to invest $600 billion in the US economy.
It looks like there may be problems with the US-EU agreement.
The European economy will suffer losses after the conclusion of a trade agreement with the US,
which provides for a reduction in tariffs from the 30% threatened by the EU to 15%, according to Western businessmen, economists and politicians - NYT / RTRS / FT.
US-EU trade deal to cost global economy $2 trillion by 2027, Reuters
French industry minister on EU-US trade framework agreement:
"This is not the end of the story. We are entering a phase of further negotiations that could last weeks or months. We will continue to fight to rebalance our trade relations with the US."
• Trump has suspended restrictions on technology exports to China to reach a trade agreement ahead of the third round of talks between the two sides on July 28-29 in Stockholm to extend existing trade agreements — FT.
Trump's 'egonomics': how greed became the driving force behind his policies - The Guardian.
US President Donald Trump's greed is the driving force behind his leadership style, his approach to business and politics.
He has turned deal-making into his main tool for achieving power and wealth, and this has become the cornerstone of his so-called 'egonomics' - a symbiosis of narcissism and the desire to accumulate money.
• The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has stated that AI could significantly change the trajectory of national debt growth by accelerating economic growth and reducing inflation.
Instead of US debt reaching 160% of GDP by 2054, it could stabilize at around 110%.
/ This is a new recognition of the impact of the technological revolution on national debt.
The hole in the German state budget turned out to be larger than expected
The German government is currently coordinating the budget for 2026. Its approval by the Cabinet is scheduled for July 30. During the calculations, it turned out that the government's financial plan for 2027-2029 is underfunded not by 144 billion euros, as previously thought, but by 172 billion.
• Gaza must be taken by force and everything must be started from scratch there, giving the Palestinians a brighter future - US Senator Lindsey Graham on a peace plan to end the war with Hamas.
• Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire,
which will take effect at midnight local time next month, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was quoted as saying by the national news agency Bernama.
• Vucic accused director Kusturica of attempting a coup d'etat. According to the Serbian president, director and musician Emir Kusturica, together with representatives of the Serbian opposition, is trying to remove him from the post of head of state. He also accused political opponents of lacking a program and understanding of what Serbia needs and what its people want.
• "Donald-d-d" and "Emmanuelle-l-l." Trump has introduced a new style of communication among world leaders - Politico.
Donald Trump, as during his first presidential term, contrary to diplomatic rules, shares his personal phone number with foreign leaders and encourages them to call him directly or initiates such conversations himself, the publication writes.
• The US delivered nuclear weapons to the UK on a plane with transponders switched on to signal Russia.
Thus, the US demonstrates that it is “not reducing its nuclear presence in Europe” - BBG.