Inflation and the Fed Chairman's speech, Bitcoin and Trump's actions, company news and geopolitics

Stock market news

• The market traded calmly. AAPL shares gained 2%, while TSLA -6%. US inflation data for January is due out today. Growth is expected to be 0.3% m/m. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect the annual headline CPI inflation rate in January and the narrower annual base rate to be 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively, slightly down from 2.9% and 3.2% in December.
Investors are nervous and fearful of rising inflation. Therefore, even if the forecasts are simply met, it will be a positive for the market. The main thing is that it is not worse.

• Investors started the day Wednesday without headlines about new U.S. tariffs, allowing them to turn their attention to a U.S. inflation report later in the day and possible clues about the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Core inflation is expected to ease slightly in January to an annual rate of 3.1%, with the headline figure holding steady at 2.9%, although analysts expect progress in containing inflation to slow toward the end of the year. Wednesday will be the latest inflation data before the direct impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff measures that took effect this month.

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also begins his second day of testimony before Congress shortly after the release of consumer price data for January, allowing the Fed itself to react in real time. But he is expected to reiterate the central bank's patient approach to future rate cuts, especially since the scale of Trump's tariffs and their impact on the global economy remain largely unknown.

• European stocks appeared to open positive, extending gains after the previous session’s record high close. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.24%, while DAX futures rose 0.33%. Despite the uncertain global trading backdrop, the benchmark STOXX index has gained almost 8% this year. Many analysts see Trump’s actions as a negotiating tactic as investors focus on corporate earnings. Pepperstone head of research Chris Weston pointed to tailwinds from solid European corporate earnings and the view that European growth may be close to bottoming out.

• Major US trading partners have condemned Trump's latest tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has vowed to take "strong and proportionate countermeasures" in response to the move. The Mexican government and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have also expressed their displeasure. Japan's Industry Minister Yoji Muto said on Wednesday that the government had requested exemptions from US tariffs on steel and aluminium.

• Gold's relentless rise to consecutive record highs slowed on Wednesday as the yellow metal retreated, although $3,000 an ounce is still in sight. Fears about the inflationary impact of the global trade war are not the only reason bullion prices have risen 10% this year, but it is a big one. Central banks have been big buyers for months, along with investors seeking safety. Worries about U.S. tariffs on gold have also sparked a rush to move it out of London vaults and across the Atlantic.

• Fed Chairman Powell: We don't need to rush to adjust monetary policy.
"We can keep policy tame longer if the economy remains strong and inflation doesn't get close to 2%."
Powell rules out a return to QE anytime soon. Says QE will only happen when rates are back at 0%.

• Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has proposed turning Phuket into a “bitcoin sandbox.” If the plan is approved, foreign tourists will be able to buy property, hotels and entertainment in BTC - with no restrictions on cash payments.

• Heat from mining to heat homes. Marathon Digital has introduced a system for redistributing heat from BTC mining equipment. This solution allows heating homes, reducing dependence on carbon-based energy sources and increasing energy efficiency.

• Crypto industry leaders call on Congress to urgently establish clear rules or the US risks falling behind
While other countries create favorable conditions for the development of cryptocurrencies, America loses ground - Cointelegraph.

• Binance and SEC Stay Proceedings for 60 Days Binance and the SEC have filed a joint motion to stay the case for 60 days, citing the work of the SEC's new crypto working group as a factor in the settlement.

• Billionaire Elon Musk's fortune fell below $400 billion for the first time in two months as Tesla's (TSLA) stock price slumped double-digits.
The automaker's shares have fallen 27% since hitting an all-time high in mid-December on hopes that Musk's closeness to President Donald Trump will boost the company's fortunes.

• Tesla has launched production at a new plant in Shanghai. The facility will produce storage batteries.

• Tesla sales have fallen sharply in the Netherlands. The reason is the negative attitude towards Musk.

• China’s BYD has announced that its “God’s Eye” self-driving technology will be included in most of its vehicles at no extra cost, including some cheaper models. That could be a challenge for Tesla and others.
UBS analysts wrote: “This could be a game-changer, particularly at the affordable end of the spectrum. Offering a modern ADAS L2+ system without raising prices could make BYD more competitive with legacy rivals, putting more pressure on their products. After Tesla, we believe Volkswagen is potentially the most negatively affected by BYD’s move.”

• Apple (AAPL) has urgently released iOS 18.3.1, which fixes a critical vulnerability that allows hackers to crack passwords and access iPhone data. The issue involved a bypass of USB Restricted Mode, which gave attackers a chance to penetrate the device with physical access.

• Google (GOOG) and SoftBank (SFTBY) have invested in quantum computing startup QuEra Computing, which raised $230 million in a recent funding round. QuEra, which was valued between $750 million and $1 billion before raising the capital, is generating significant revenue and aims to strengthen its technology capabilities with the new capital.

• Archer Aviation (ACHR) raised $300 million in new funding led by Blackrock (BLK), strengthening its financial position to develop hybrid aviation platforms.
Archer now has approximately $1 billion in total liquidity and projects fourth-quarter GAAP operating expenses in the range of $120 million to $140 million. The company remains optimistic about its financial health and strategic advances in the defense sector.

• Humana (HUM) Expects ~10% Decline in Medicare Advantage Enrollment in 2025 Due to Market Exit
Despite these challenges, Humana is maintaining its 2025 earnings outlook, forecasting revenue of $126-$128 billion, beating analysts' expectations.
HUM shares fell 4%.

• Firefly Neuroscience (AIFF) shares rose 18% after joining NVIDIA's (NVDA) Connect program, which helps companies speed their time to market.

• Boeing (BA) said on Tuesday it delivered 45 planes in January, up from 30 the previous month
. That was the U.S. planemaker's biggest monthly delivery since 2023. The deliveries included 40 737 MAX jets, up from 25 in the same month last year.
BA shares are neutral as expectations were priced in.

• Marriott International (MAR) shares fell 5% after the report, after the company gave weaker-than-expected guidance.

• Apple is partnering with Alibaba to bring its Apple Intelligence platform to China - The Information.
The deal is said to have come after the iPhone maker considered - but ultimately rejected - a potential partnership with AI startup DeepSeek, as well as Bytedance.

• U.S. bank executives said on Tuesday they expected policy uncertainty to persist as President Donald Trump's second administration takes shape - Reuters.
But they remained optimistic about the economy.

• Oil Extends Gains on Signs Sanctions Hurt Russian Flows - Bloomberg YouTube's AI Updates Include Expanded Auto-Dub Capabilities, Age-ID Tech, More
In his annual letter, YouTube CEO Neal Mohan named AI as one of the company's four "big bets" for 2025.

• Coca-Cola (KO) shares rose 5% after the report. The company beat expectations, reporting revenue growth of 6.5% year-over-year. The
company's strong performance was driven by strong organic sales growth, particularly in Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and North America, which allowed it to outperform rival PepsiCo (PEP).

• Activist Elliott is ramping up pressure on Phillips 66 (PSX) with a stake worth more than $2.5 billion. The activist investor plans to force the refiner to consider selling or spinning off its energy midstream business.

• Intel (INTC) shares rose 6% yesterday after upbeat comments from J.D. Vance at the AI ​​summit in Paris:
"To maintain American superiority, the Trump administration will ensure that the most powerful AI systems are built in the United States using chips designed and manufactured in America."

Stocks in premarket after earnings:
UPST +26%
SMCI +8%
DASH +6%
GILD +4%
Z -6%
LYFT -11%

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- U.S. inflation report (January).
- Powell's testimony.
- Heineken NV earnings report.
- CVS Health earnings report.

Fundamental news

• The Trump administration plans to push European allies to buy more American weapons for Ukraine ahead of possible peace talks with Moscow, a move that could improve Kyiv's negotiating position - Reuters

• Trump ordered a suspension of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977, which banned Americans from bribing foreign officials to do business.

• Donald Trump said if Hamas does not return all hostages by midday Saturday, he will call for the Gaza ceasefire to be revoked and "let all hell break loose" - Fox News.

• The European Union, following the US, will review financial aid programs for other countries - Bloomberg. Aid should promote the EU's strategic values ​​and be allocated to those countries that share European values, according to Brussels.

• Japan again demands Kurils. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has publicly announced for the first time in seven years Tokyo's intention to gain control over the four Kuril Islands. He stressed that this issue remains key in relations with Moscow and called on Russia to resume programs to visit graves of former Kuril residents.

• China is already offering countries its aid instead of USAID - Politico. Countries from the Indo-Pacific region to South America are receiving offers of financial aid from China.

• An international summit dedicated to artificial intelligence and the prospects for its development opened in Paris yesterday.
One of the main topics is the development of international rules for regulating AI and minimizing the risks associated with rapidly developing technologies in this area.

• Inflation jumps sharply in Hungary - Bloomberg. Monthly prices rose by 1.5%.