High stock market volatility caused by geopolitical news, corporate reviews of companies
Latest stock market news
• Strong macroeconomic data and hopes that Trump will back down in the trade war have restored optimism to investors.
Many believe that the market is quite oversold, and there are no threats to the profits of American businesses.
And the weak dollar is a plus for stocks - EURUSD jumped to 1.08. Bitcoin is above $91 thousand.
The yield on 10-year government bonds during inflation fears rose to 4.33% against the recent 4.1%.
• As trade tensions escalate and investors grapple with Germany tearing up its fiscal rulebook, many expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates again on Thursday, but what comes next remains in question.
The ECB has cut rates five times since June as inflation retreated and economic growth slowed. But with rates slowly approaching a level that no longer constrains economic growth, the easing cycle may be coming to an end.
• The specter of a trade war with the United States looms large, while Germany and the European Commission have announced changes to fiscal rules that will allow more spending on defense and infrastructure.
All eyes will be on the ECB when it announces its policy decision at 13:15 GMT, followed by a press conference by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 13:45 GMT.
• Markets are still digesting Berlin's sweeping measures announced late on Tuesday that triggered a sharp sell-off in German bunds, sending the euro to a four-month high and the DAX index to its best day in two years.
Futures point to the DAX index opening higher on Thursday, while German 10-year Bund futures fell 0.7%, pointing to a likely softer run in cash bond prices after the market opens.
German 10-year bond yields, the euro zone's benchmark, rose more than 30 basis points on Wednesday, the biggest daily gain since the euro was launched in 1999.
• Investors' reaction to the fiscal boom contrasted with their concerns about fiscal tightening in the United States.
Asian shares followed Wall Street higher on Thursday as investors hoped trade tensions could ease after U.S. President Donald Trump exempted automakers from tariffs for a month.
And as my colleague Jamie McGeever notes in his updated newsletter: “As long as Washington continues to pursue a chaotic policy of on-off, on-off tariffs, a fog of nervous uncertainty and heightened volatility will hang over markets.”
• Tesla (TSLA) is introducing new incentives for buyers (free charging and favorable financing) amid weakening demand and falling sales. The company's sales fell in China (-49% in February), Europe (-45% in January) and California (-36% for the Model 3).
The stock is down 30% year to date.
• Trump to reveal crypto reserve strategy at White House Crypto Summit this Friday, Commerce Secretary says
BTC rises on news, Lutnick says Bitcoin will be treated separately from altcoins in US crypto reserve
"Those who sold BTC on the last drop are defeated" - Kiyosaki. Robert Kiyosaki said that US President Trump understands the power of Bitcoin and may start buying it to solve the country's financial problems.
Senator Lummis doubts that a strategic reserve of digital assets will appear anytime soon.
She believes that there is not enough support in Congress, and some Republicans suggest postponing the initiative altogether.
• The administration has held talks with Ford (F), GM (GM) and Stellantis (STLA) about possibly eliminating or modifying the 25% tariffs.
The next meeting is scheduled at the White House on Wednesday. The automakers are pushing for a review of the tariffs because of their potentially catastrophic impact.
• Decentralized AI and Confidential Computing are the key topic at the NVIDIA (NVDA) conference.
The focus is on a decentralized AI cloud that combines NVIDIA Confidential Computing and a Proof-of-Response mechanism.
This solution will allow AI models to be monetized without the need to deploy their own services.
• "Trump's tariffs could be QE in disguise... Liquidity could arrive faster than expected," - Michael Saylor.
• Scale AI has secured a multi-million dollar defense contract, marking a major step forward in automating U.S. military technology.
• Adidas to cut up to 500 jobs. German sports goods maker Adidas has announced massive layoffs. They will affect hundreds of employees at the company's headquarters in the Bavarian town of Herzogenaurach, Der Spiegel reports.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) launches weight-loss drug Vegova for $499, delivered to your door. Novo Nordisk is following the lead of rival Eli Lilly and offering its weight-loss drug at a lower cash price.
• Thor Industries (THO) shares fell after the RV maker posted a loss and cut its outlook.
Thor Industries blamed "persistent macroeconomic headwinds" for the worse-than-expected results and outlook.
• Palantir (PLTR) is forming a joint venture with TWG Global to deploy its AI in banking, investment management, insurance and financial services.
• Emerging market currencies jump: Emerging market assets rose on bets that higher tariffs will slow the U.S. economy and divert investment flows from the world's largest economy.
• Shares of CrowdStrike Holding Inc. (CRWD) fell after the cybersecurity company issued a worse-than-expected profit forecast.
• Trump's tariffs have driven aluminum premiums to record highs in the U.S. physical market - Reuters.
The premiums have risen due to the threat of tariffs on imports of the metal, which is used in the transportation, construction and packaging industries.
• Tesla (TSLA) has signed a deal to open its first showroom in India to sell imported electric vehicles. The company wants to sell imported cars in India, according to registration documents.
• German court rules Pfizer, BioNTech infringed Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine patent - Reuters
• Trump on Tuesday said his administration is working on a proposed Alaska pipeline, seeking to revive a long-stalled $44 billion project to transport natural gas through the state and export it overseas.
• Mars announced Wednesday it will issue eight investment-grade notes to finance its takeover of Pringles maker Kellanova, in what is expected to be one of the largest merger-and-acquisition financing deals this year.
• Yesterday, a 40-day boycott began at Target (TGT). It comes as the company backslides on its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies.
• Google (GOOG) announced AI Mode for search. “You’ll get AI-powered answers using the advanced critical thinking, reasoning, multimodal capabilities of Gemini 2.0, and new ways to explore even more of the web,” Google CEO.
• Victoria's Secret (VSCO) shares fall 2% after earnings. The company expects things to "gradually improve" next year, but is currently seeing shaky consumer confidence and weak sales forecasts.
• MRVL shares fall 15% after earnings. The company raised its guidance. But it expects a slowdown in its AI business.
A slowdown in the enterprise on-premises portion of its data center business will drag down its overall AI growth rate on a sequential basis. The company expects its data center business to grow only 10% sequentially next quarter, down from 24% sequential growth in the current quarter.
• Marvell's data center business now accounts for approximately 75% of total revenue. In the fourth quarter, data center revenue grew 24% sequentially and 78% year-over-year.
• Blackstone's plans for a 'hyperscale' data centre in the north of England have been given the green light.
• Abercrombie & Fitch predicts weak sales growth, falling shares.
• Campbell's cuts full-year forecast on weak snack demand.
• Bayer expects improvement in 2026 after profit decline this year.
• Judge denies Musk's motion to halt OpenAI's move to commercialize and expedites case.
• Tesla car sales in Germany continued to fall in February.
• Israel's Bank Hapoalim raises $829 million in bonds after strong 2024 earnings
• Saudi Arabia's PIF signs $3 billion deal with Italian export credit agency
• Australia's CBA exits Vietnam's VIB after selling 4.4% stake.
• Ally Financial sells $2.8 billion in low-yield securities to strengthen balance sheet.
• TD Bank sets new CEO salary at $7.9 million, cuts U.S. executive's pay
• Goldman Sachs could cut more than 1,300 jobs during annual review, source says. Goldman Sachs' Liz Martin to leave after 25 years
• German regulator fines Deutsche Bank $24.3 million.
• The head of Israel's finance committee blamed the government for a sharp rise in bank profits.
• Trump questions fairness of Canada's relationship with US banks.
Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- February PMI data for the eurozone, Germany, France and the UK.
- ECB interest rate decision.
- Earnings: Reckitt Benckiser, ITV and Merck KGaA.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Eurozone business activity indicators weakened slightly more than expected
Services PMI 50.6 (exp. 50.7/ pop. 51.3)
Eurozone inflation above expectations
PPI y/y = 1.8% y/y (exp. 1.4%/ pop. 0.1% acc.)
UK business activity indicators grew slightly less than expected
Services PMI = 51.0 (exp. 51.1/ pop. 50.
• A Canadian province has terminated a $100 million contract with Starlink, according to Canadian publication BetaKit.
The publication notes that Elon Musk's closeness to the White House has made his companies, such as Tesla, social network X (Twitter) and Starlink, a target in the trade war between Canada and the United States.
• China controls 90% of the world's rare earth metals processing capacity and just under 50% of the world's rare earth reserves - FT
There are some parts of processing that the West has not even learned to do.
China could restrict exports of ore processing technology and the metals themselves, undermining the national security of the US and Europe.
• US macro data better than expected
S&P Global Services PMI = 51.0, forecast 49.7 pop 52.9
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (February) = 53.5, forecast 52.5 pop 52.8
ISM Non-Manufacturing Price Index (February) = 62.6, forecast 60.0 pop 60.4
US services sector growth unexpectedly accelerated in February and input prices rose, which, coupled with a recent spike in factory raw material costs, suggests inflation could accelerate in the coming months.
• Germany is looking for a way to prevent the resumption of Nord Stream 2 - BILD.
The crises of the last 5 years have cost the German economy 735 billion euros
According to a study by the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical upheavals over the past 5 years, the German economy has lost 735 billion euros.
Fitch Ratings believes that the German economy is operating below potential and notes prospects for moderate growth
The European Parliament is proposing to create a common European army, - Politico.
• Chinese Embassy in the US: If war is what America wants, whether it's a tariff war or any other war, we are prepared to fight to the end. Defense Secretary Hagseth: The US does not want war with China, but we are prepared for it.
• China will increase its defense budget by 7.2% in 2025. Up to 1.78 trillion yuan (around 231 billion euros), the country's government announced at the opening of the 3rd session of the National People's Congress. A similar increase was recorded in 2024, the dpa agency recalls.
• The Volt Party will propose to the European Parliament to deprive Hungary of its voting rights because of its systematic blocking of EU decisions - Politico.
The MEPs will send them their own nine-point plan ahead of the EU leaders' summit on March 6, which includes a decision on Hungary.
• US farmers react with fury to tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, saying the trade war would 'hit rural America' - FT.