Geopolitics and trade wars are the main drivers of stock market movements, key corporate reviews

Latest stock market news

• The US stock market has been on a roller coaster ride - it opened sharply down, then went into the plus and ended the day with an average decline of 1%. As a result, all types of US stock indices went to zero or minus relative to the beginning of the year.
However, later there were reports that Trump could soften the tariff war, and in the morning stock index futures are growing within 1%.
The VIX fear index is slowly declining.
The dollar has regained some of its losses.
Oil continues to creep down.
Bitcoin has returned to $87 thousand.
Take care of your nerves. Trump has only been in power for a little over a month, and there are almost 4 years ahead.

• With so much going on in the markets right now, it's hard to know where to look. The escalating Trump-led trade war, which Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called "stupid," is certainly keeping investors' attention while keeping sentiment subdued across asset classes.

For example, one of the world stock indexes lost about 2% this week, and Brent crude oil hit a six-month low.

But it's not that simple: Wall Street is poised to open higher after Tuesday's sell-off, and futures point to even bigger gains on European bourses.

• Parties hoping to form Germany's next government have sparked optimism with landmark deals to create a €500 billion ($530 billion) infrastructure fund and ease fiscal rules to boost defence spending and revive economic growth.

• The European Commission has proposed providing up to €150 billion in loans to EU governments as part of a rearmament plan.

Of course, the backdrop is the unstable peace talks in Ukraine, against which Washington appears to be moving away from its allies in Europe and closer to Moscow.

• The rapprochement is suddenly gaining momentum, with US President Donald Trump appearing pleased with a conciliatory letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky following their extraordinary clash in the Oval Office last week.

Trump released the letter in his first address to Congress since returning to office, in which he addressed the substance of his numerous executive orders issued just six weeks after his inauguration.

One cause for concern, analysts say, is that Trump has pushed to repeal a bipartisan law that provides $52.7 billion in subsidies for semiconductor manufacturing, although the initial market reaction has been muted.

• Investors view the tariff response as relatively modest.

Chinese policymakers are bracing for any trade war by promising to unlock more fiscal stimulus, according to the just-started annual session of the National People's Congress, which runs until Tuesday, leaving plenty of time for more details to emerge.

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent:
We are set to lower interest rates;
the US will become a major energy exporter;
Chinese exporters will take on tariffs.

• Warren Buffett: "Tariffs are an act of war that can cause inflation." The 94-year-old head of Berkshire Hathaway explained that tariffs are effectively a tax on goods: "The tooth fairy doesn't pay them! So what? In economics, you always have to ask that question."

• Oil giant Saudi Aramco is cutting its overall dividend by more than 30%, with payments in 2025 set to be around $85 billion, down from $124 billion last year.

• Ray Dalio warns US could face unexpected 'heart attack' from debt crisis within three years - Bloomberg

• Apple (AAPL) unveiled the IPAD AIR with a powerful M3 chip and a new Magic keyboard.

• Tesla (TSLA) shipment data from China isn’t great. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported that Tesla’s shipments from China in February fell to 30,688 vehicles, down 49% from a year ago, according to Bloomberg News, and less than half the 63,238 in January. Meanwhile, wholesale sales of new electric vehicles in China reached 840,000 units for the month, up 82% from a year ago.

• Best Buy (BBY) shares fall as supply chain braces for tariff impact. Uncertainty remains over the outcome of AI innovation and tariffs.

• Foxconn's mega-AI plant to be ready in a year despite Trump tariffs/ Foxconn's planned AI server plant near Guadalajara, Mexico, will be completed in a year despite the threat of new tariffs from President Donald Trump, Jalisco state Gov. Pablo Lemus Navarro said.

• Teck (TECK) Looks Outside U.S. for Zinc Buyers: A top executive at Teck Resources Ltd. warned that U.S. tariffs would "push up inflation" across the mining industry and prompt companies to look elsewhere for customers.

• The U.S. CHIPS Act office has laid off about a third of its staff, sources say. Workers at the office, which oversees $39 billion in manufacturing subsidies for chip makers, were laid off this week

• Brent oil fell below $70 amid trade wars and OPEC+ production increases.

• Shares of Swiss sneaker maker On Holding (ONON) rose on a global sales surge. On Holding AG beat earnings and revenue estimates as sales rose in all markets around the world.

• OpenAI launches $50 million grant program to fund academic research. OpenAI announced Monday that it is backing a new consortium called NextGenAI that will focus on supporting AI research at leading universities.

• Tom Lee: Bitcoin to bottom this week. Short-term price target expected at $62,000.
Then he sees a rally to $150,000.

• Stocks after report:
CRWD -9%.
AVAV -20%.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- Earnings announcements including Adidas, Bayer.
- Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from the US, UK, Germany, France, Eurozone.
- Eurozone Producer Prices.
- US ADP Employment Report.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Some of Trump's statements in his speech to Congress
- Ukraine is ready to sit down at the negotiating table and sign an agreement on mineral resources. Received a letter from Zelensky;
- The US has received "compelling signals" from Russia that it is ready for peace;
- I announced a freeze on all international aid;
- I am ending US work in the WHO;
- We are ending all Biden restrictions;
- The US will no longer be open to gender diversity;
- Tariffs will be introduced on April 2, and we will introduce even larger tariffs for any retaliatory tariffs against us;
- Promised America a "golden age": "it will be something the world has never seen before";
- The US is ready to accept Greenland into its territory if its people express such a desire, the States gets it "one way or another";
- The US began to regain control of the Panama Canal, an American company entered into an agreement;
- Signed an executive order on the death penalty for anyone who kills a police officer and wants to make it a permanent law;
- Vowed to "plant the American flag on the planet Mars."

• Lutnik: "Trump could announce tariff easing for Canada and Mexico as early as tomorrow. The changes will go into effect on April 2."

• Trump gets his way: BlackRock to buy two key Panama Canal ports from Hong Kong company after US pressure - FT
Washington has long expressed concerns about China's influence over the strategic trade route. Trump has repeatedly said "China runs the Panama Canal" and vowed to "take it back". Now that move may be a reality.
The deal involves selling off most of the ports owned by Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison.

• Trump said on his social media that students in the US will be detained and sent to prison for participating in protests. He will also stop federal funding for schools that allow illegal protests.

• The only country that can actually strengthen European security without US involvement is Türkiye, which has the second largest combat-ready army in NATO. - International Policy Columnist Vladimir Kravchenko.

• The White House is developing a plan to ease sanctions against Russia - Reuters.

• Ursula von der Leyen presented an 800 billion euro European defense plan.
The plan envisages:
- increasing defense spending,
- simplifying financing for member states,
- creating a 150 billion euro fund for joint procurement,
- using the EU budget for defense investments,
- involving the European Investment Bank and attracting private capital.

• I find the cruelty of this decision reprehensible. It is very cruel to the Ukrainian soldiers who are defending their country,
- Marine Le Pen on Trump's decision to cancel arms supplies.
At the same time, she spoke out against Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU.

• Mexican President Victoria Sheinbaum:
“It is not our decision to start a trade standoff, but we will respond with tariff and non-tariff measures that I will announce on Sunday.
” Ontario is stopping nickel supplies to the United States, Premier Doug Ford said.
He also announced his readiness to pass a law on the priority purchase of local products.
Canada is not only a major supplier of steel and aluminum, but also provides 50% of the nickel used by the United States, worth about $4.3 billion annually.

• Canadian PM Trudeau:
Canada to impose 25% tariffs on $30 billion in U.S. imports immediately;
Canada to impose 25% tariffs on additional $125 billion in U.S. imports in 21 days;
If U.S. tariffs remain in place, Canada will consider additional non-tariff measures;
Canada to challenge U.S. tariffs through WTO and USMCA.
Canada to halt nickel shipments to U.S.

• The third session of China's 14th National People's Congress (NPC) will be held from March 5 to 11.
China has imposed additional tariffs of 10-15% on American agricultural products, the Commerce Ministry said
. China also added 15 American companies to an export control list.

• Trump wants a settlement in Ukraine in order to shift attention to the confrontation with China, said a former high-ranking US official close to the current US administration.

• Oil supplies via the Russian Druzhba pipeline to the Czech Republic have been stopped. The reasons for the stoppage are unknown, - Minister of Industry and Trade Lukáš Vlček in a comment to the České noviny agency.

• Germany should ease constitutional borrowing limits to free up to 220 billion euros ($232 billion) in fiscal space by 2030 to boost infrastructure and military spending, according to the Bundesbank - Bloomberg

Future German Chancellor Merz:
- The economy must be put back on the growth path through credit financing. Special fund - €500 billion;
- A €500 billion fund for infrastructure, of which €100 billion will go to the regions;
- The fund will be presented next week, and the “debt brake” reform will allow for increased defense spending.
Eurozone unemployment remains at historic lows despite weak economy
The eurozone labor market has shown resilience after the region’s sluggish economic performance in the last quarter of 2024.

• China Services PMI unexpectedly rises, vs. expectations of decline to
51.4 (exp. 50.8, prev. 51.0)
China kept its 2025 GDP target at around 5%
The IMF forecasts China’s economy will grow 4.6% this year.
The Chinese government will adopt a “more proactive fiscal policy,” including increasing deficit spending to 4% of GDP from 3%.
The government, following the CPC’s guidance, will borrow more this year, spend more on a rebate program and may increase pensions and medical care.
The government will issue 1.3 trillion yuan ($180 billion) in ultra-long-term bonds, up from 1 trillion yuan last year.