Geopolitical instability caused by US leadership in the spotlight of traders, corporate news
Latest stock market news
• Moderate negative sentiment on the markets in the morning - the market's reaction to Trump's words (he did not rule out a recession and does not pay attention to the current market decline - Trump has more important things now).
Stock index futures are down 0.5%, and US government bonds are rising. VIX is growing and oil is falling by 0.5%.
The Japanese yen is strengthening sluggishly and the USD is stable.
Crypto remains under pressure, hovering above important support levels.
• Markets had a nervous start to the week, helped by an unusually sharp drop in Wall Street futures early in Asian trading.
US President Donald Trump appeared to be at the centre of investor concerns, sidestepping a question in an interview with Fox News on Sunday about whether his trade tariffs could trigger a recession in the US.
As City Index analyst Matt Simpson put it, that was a yes from a market perspective. A Reuters poll found that 91% of economists believed the chances of a recession had increased because of Trump’s rapidly changing trade policies. But the pessimism had eased in Asia by midday.
• S&P 500 futures fell more than 1% at one point but have since cut that loss in half. Japan's Nikkei reversed a small 0.6% drop, avoiding resistance from a stronger safe-haven yen. Taiwan's benchmark fell just 0.2%, down from 0.8% earlier.
The exception was China, where weekend data showed deflationary momentum continues to build, giving policymakers more food for thought at the week-long National People's Congress, which runs through Tuesday.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell more than 2%, while mainland China shares lost 0.8%.
• Macro falters: The main reason for the reversal in many markets is that they had already fallen so low: The S&P 500 hit a nearly six-month low on Friday before rallying slightly.
The Nikkei also closed last week at a six-month nadir. Tellingly, Japan's best performers on Monday were the beaten-down blue chip stocks.
But the macroeconomic setbacks in the US and China have benefited Europe, where investors are bracing for a sea change due to Germany's suddenly weaker financial position.
Futures on the pan-European STOXX 50 index rose 0.8% in early trade, with the euro holding near Friday's four-month peak.
• The European data calendar is generally light today, led by German trade and industrial production data for January. The Eurogroup meets in Brussels, with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde among others attending.
• Investors buy US dividend stocks amid threats of trade restrictions and economic slowdown - WSJ. OpenAI to launch $20K/month subscription for special AI agents
The company intends to launch several AI agents designed for different areas, such as sales, data processing, software development. Their price will vary, depending on the complexity of the tasks.
An AI agent responsible for sales will cost $2,000 per month, a software developer - $10K, and one that will work with large arrays of data and PhD-level research - $20K.
• From March 8 to 9, the United States switched to daylight saving time, moving clocks forward one hour.
• Apple's 'smart home' launch delayed by Siri issues Apple announced this week that the "more personalized" version of Siri it promised last year has been delayed — and according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, that has also delayed the launch of the company's planned smart home.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said growing uncertainty among businesses could slow demand in the U.S. economy
, but she doesn't call for higher interest rates.
• Next week, investors will focus on key inflation data, particularly the latest producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) figures.
Investors will be looking for any clues as to how tariffs might affect future price movements. An update on inflation expectations and consumer sentiment is also on the calendar.
• Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has decided to apply the marketplace experience to his other company, the space company Blue Origin, writes the FT.
Blue Origin is hiring executives from Amazon and implementing similar corporate policies: introducing a 50-hour work week and a more tolerant attitude to risk.
• Michael Saylor believes that the Bitcoin reserve could add $16 to $81 trillion in wealth to the United States by 2045.
• Jerome Powell said the “net effect” of the Trump administration’s policies on trade, immigration, fiscal policy and regulation will determine interest rates going forward.
The Fed chairman assured an audience at the University of Chicago that the economy is in “good shape” despite “elevated uncertainty.”
• Anti-Elon Musk bumper stickers are being snapped up by Tesla owners who can't sell their cars. One seller says he has been selling hundreds of anti-Elon Musk bumper stickers daily in recent weeks, with some buyers saying they are "stuck" with their Teslas.
• Japan should correct 'misunderstanding' that it is manipulating the yen, says former BOJ Governor Kuroda. Donald Trump believes its central bank is deliberately weakening the yen through monetary policy, former BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said.
• Reddit's advertising revenue is growing faster than other social media platforms, driven by an expanding user base and a unique "social" feel, according to a report from EMARKETER.
• Alphabet Inc.'s Google could keep its existing investments in artificial intelligence startups such as Anthropic
but would be required to notify antitrust authorities before investing in any other artificial intelligence companies, under a revised Justice Department plan.
• DoorDash, Williams-Sonoma, TKO Group Holdings and Expand Energy will be added to the S&P 500 in the latest quarterly weighting change - Bloomberg
• Apple's artificial intelligence turmoil reached new heights on Friday as the company delayed promised updates to its Siri digital assistant until the near future.
Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.
- German industrial production, trade data.
- Italian producer prices.
- Swedish GDP.
- Norway, Denmark CPI.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• There’s a change of power in Canada! Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s Prime Minister.
In 2013, Carney became the first non-citizen to lead the Bank of England since its founding in 1694. The British praised his services in Canada’s fight against the 2008 crisis.
Carney’s current statements:
“The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country. Think about it. If they succeed, they will destroy our way of life.”
“In America, health care is big business. In Canada, it’s a right.”
“America is not Canada. And Canada will never, ever be a part of America in any way, shape, or form.”
“These are dark days, dark days caused by a country we can no longer trust.”
“We are recovering from the shock, but let’s never forget the lessons. We must look after ourselves and each other. We need to unite in the difficult days ahead.”
• A bill to fund the US government until September has been introduced in the House of Representatives.
US President Donald Trump welcomed the bill introduced by the leaders of the US Republican Party on temporary funding of the government and called on all members of Congress to support it.
Trump on the stock market correction:
Look, I have to build a strong country, and you really shouldn’t pay too much attention to the stock market. If you look at China, they have plans for 100 years ahead.
Trump: Our biggest existential threat is not climate change
“No, the biggest threat is the nuclear weapons that are sitting on the shelves in different countries, which are a big monster and can blow your heads off for many, many miles.”
• The US Congress intends to recognize Turkey as a Middle Eastern country, not a European one.
Explaining this by the fact that Turkey is now moving into the status of an adversary of the US - Jewish Insider.
• Trump's regular golfing in 2025 would cost the budget an estimated $18.2 million - Huffington Post. Trump has spent 13 of his 48 days in office playing golf.
• Friedrich Merz is one step closer to the chancellorship: the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats have reached a preliminary agreement on forming a coalition in the Bundestag, - CDU/CSU leaders Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder and SPD leaders Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken.
• Trump may cut off support for the F-35? Germany has sounded the alarm. From 2027, modern American F-35 fighters will form the backbone of the German Air Force. However, despite the transfer of equipment for use by the Germans, the Americans will continue to significantly influence the combat readiness of the aircraft.
• Europe supports Arab summit decision on Gaza - dpa news agency. The foreign ministers of Germany, France, Italy and Great Britain consider the five-year plan for reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, developed by Arab countries, to be realistic. It will require expenditures of approximately 50 billion euros and does not provide for the resettlement of Palestinians, as US President Donald Trump wants with his plan to turn the ruins into a "Riviera of the Middle East".
• Israel has cut off electricity supplies to the Gaza Strip, which Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen said was intended to provide additional leverage on Hamas amid uncertainty over whether to extend the ceasefire in the region.
• Scandinavians are boycotting American goods and canceling flights to the US. Tesla sales in Norway alone have fallen by 70% compared to the same period last year. Flights to the US are being cancelled by consumers, and their number has dropped by 33%.
• China, Russia and Iran will hold joint naval exercises "Security Belt 2025" in the first half of March in the waters near the Iranian port of Chabahar. This is the fifth exercise between China, Iran and Russia since 2019.
The exercises will take place near the Iranian port of Chabahar in the Gulf of Oman, a key gateway for energy transportation.
• China's additional tariffs on U.S. farm products take effect Monday.
15% on chicken, wheat and corn.
10% on pork, beef, fruits, vegetables and dairy products.
• Hungary has agreed with the United States on a new economic cooperation package to offset damage from possible American tariffs
, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said, as quoted by Reuters.
• Trump officials want to measure the health of the economy in a way that hides the decline in DOGE. Trump administration officials have suggested they may try a different way of looking at a key economic indicator of America's economic health: quarterly GDP.
• Los Angeles rebuild is California's economic moment of truth - WSJ Wildfires that have devastated two neighborhoods have further exacerbated the state's housing shortage. Now opposition to new housing is growing.
• The Romanian Central Electoral Commission refused to register Kelin Georgescu as a candidate in the presidential elections.
• China announced tariffs Saturday in retaliation for imports of some Canadian agricultural and food products, following Canada's October tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products.
The new duties take effect March 20, according to a statement from the Customs and Tariff Commission of the State Council.
• US to withdraw from planning new NATO exercises in Europe. The US has notified its NATO allies of its intention to withdraw from planning future military exercises in Europe, the Swedish publication Expressen reported.
• Trump calls for Puerto Rico independence to save $617 billion - Dailymail At least two US Congressional offices have drafted seven executive orders on how the US could help the island territory transition to independence.
• Suspended South Korean President Yoon Seok-yul released from Seoul detention center - Yonhap News.
• France and Germany fail to agree on EU arms purchases - The Financial Times. A proposal to inject €150bn into the EU's defence industry has become the latest development in a long-running battle between France and Germany over the continent's rearmament and whether countries outside the bloc should be involved.
• Olaf Scholz's party could disrupt coalition talks to prevent Friedrich Merz from becoming Germany's new chancellor - Bild.
• More than 40% of Danes surveyed see the United States as a threat, while Germans' trust in the United States has fallen by 38 percentage points since October 2024 - a survey by Verian and Infratest Dimap. US President Donald Trump's statements about his intention to buy Greenland have negatively affected Danes' attitudes towards the United States. 92% of respondents believe that Denmark should prioritize Europe over the United States in security matters.
• Iran will not negotiate with the US. "Some unscrupulous governments negotiate not to solve problems but to impose their own interests. The Islamic Republic of Iran will certainly not live up to their expectations" - Khameneh.
• The Democratic Republic of Congo has offered the US a rare earths deal in exchange for help in the fight against Rwanda's expansion - FT.
• 25% of Harvard's Class of 2024 still haven't found a job. That's up from 20% in 2023 and 10% in 2022.
The trend is similar at all the other Ivy League universities.
Employers are less interested in a degree and more focused on real skills. The value of an expensive, paid education is falling fast.
• China is experiencing deflation and depression. The CPI fell from +0.5% y/y to -0.7% (expected -0.4%).