Financial markets at historic highs, moderate inflation in the US, company news and geopolitics

Latest stock market news

• Inflation was not so significant and provoked the purchase of risk, that is, shares. Hedge funds, which played for a fall in small-caps (IWM), were especially pronounced
. The dollar weakened. Gold is neutral. US government bonds fell slightly. However, this was a reaction to the growth of the US budget deficit.

• Stock markets around the world, from Wall Street to Japan to Vietnam, are hitting record highs, and stock indexes across Asia are a sea of green. Data from the U.S. and other major markets are falling into the "Goldilocks zone" of not-too-high inflation, allowing central banks to keep the easy money flowing.

The MSCI All Country World stock index hit a new all-time high, as did Japan's Nikkei index, which topped 43,000 for the first time. Bitcoin's cryptocurrency rival, Ethereum, jumped to a nearly four-year high.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting its key interest rate in September at 94%, while the day before it was almost 86%, and a month earlier it was about 57%.

• Australia's central bank cut rates yesterday and New Zealand's central bank is expected to follow suit next week. The Bank of Japan's long-awaited rate hike continues to be delayed.

• A Reuters poll tracking the Bank of Japan's quarterly business activity survey showed an index of Japanese manufacturer sentiment improved for a second straight month, while a separate report showed the country's wholesale inflation slowed in July.

• The dollar was left out, remaining among the biggest losers since US President Donald Trump began his tariff saga in April, raising and lowering them. A new concern for the greenback is that partisanship will creep into US monetary policy and undermine the sanctity of economic data. Trump has appointed White House adviser Stephen Miran to temporarily fill a vacant seat on the Fed board.

• The White House said the Bureau of Labor Statistics "plans" to continue publishing its closely watched monthly employment report after Trump's nominee to lead the agency, E.J. Anthony, previously proposed suspending its release.

• Today George Soros turns 95.

• The US market (S&P 500) has updated its historical maximum, rising by almost 33% from the April 2025 minimum.

• Norway's Government Pension Fund, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, has divested from 11 Israeli companies and is terminating all contracts with external managers in Israel,
according to a release from Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the fund. Its assets were valued at $1.7 trillion at the end of the first quarter.

• Equity markets signaled a sell signal for the second month in a row.
The share of cash in institutional investors' portfolios rose to 3.9% in August from 3.8% in July, according to BofA.

• Asian stock markets rise, Nikkei hits record as US-China trade truce continues

• China's internet regulator has ordered Bytedance, Alibaba Group (BABA) and Tencent holdings to stop purchasing Nvidia chips — The Information.

• Elon Musk has accused Apple of manipulating the App Store rankings in favor of OpenAI.
He said the current App Store system makes it impossible for any AI company other than OpenAI to reach the top spot in the rankings. He added that xAI would “immediately take legal action.”

• Pfizer (PFE, 0%) and Astellas (ALPMF) successfully completed late-phase Padcev + Merck (MRK, 0%) trials of Keytruda in bladder cancer, showing significant survival improvements and preparing regulatory applications.

• Bakkt (BKKT, -5%) becomes a pure-play crypto platform, raising $75 million.
Will sell the Loyalty business, develop infrastructure for stablecoins, new CEO.

• Synchronoss (SNCR, -12%) confirmed its $170–$180 million forecast for 2025, reduced debt by $100 million, and is developing AI products.
Revenue growth is driven by subscriptions and the SaaS model.

• Kodak (KODK, -20%) plans to return $500 million in pension assets, develops pharmaceutical production in the U.S., invests in film, EV battery coatings and creates a new medical division.

• Archer Aviation (ACHR, +7%) prepares mass production of eVTOL for 2028 Olympics, expands production, enters UAE market.

• Plug Power (PLUG, -2.5%) forecasts $700 million in 2025 thanks to Project Quantum Leap, which improves margins and expands the hydrogen network. Revenue +21% y/y.

• RCI Hospitality (RICK, +1%) projects $400 million in revenue and $75 million in free cash flow through 2029, driven by M&A and real estate optimization. Nightclubs are showing steady revenue.

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS, +8%) sees $50-$75M in H2 2025, accelerates satellite launches and develops S-Band deal, tests NTN with US military.

• Myomo (MYO, -37%) raised revenue growth forecast to 23-29%, works on lead quality and cuts expenses. Q2 +28% y/y.

• Orla Mining (ORLA, -5%) posted record gold production, Q2 $263.75 million (+211.9% y/y), adjusted forecast after quarry side incident.

• Tencent Music (TME< +12%) revenue $1.18 billion (+17.9% y/y), exceeded the forecast by $70 million. Paid subscriptions and online services grew, EPADS $0.23 (+$0.03 before expectations).

• INTC +6% after Intel CEO meeting with Trump.

• OpenAI brings back GPT-4o after user outcry against GPT-5.

• Nvidia may soon try to strike another deal with China with Trump involved for a cut-down version of its latest Blackwell AI chips, CNBC reports.
Trump said the China version of Blackwell would be "specifically limited... to reduce performance by 30 to 50 percent."

• Coinbase Ventures has invested in TON.
The amount of the deal was not disclosed, but TON Foundation President Manuel Stotz said the purchase was made directly from Telegram.

• Monero 51% Attack: Mining Pool Qubic Possibly Takes Control of Network - CryptoRank.
SlowMist founder reported that mining pool Qubic has taken over the majority of Monero's hashrate, allowing for a massive reorganization of the blockchain. This allows for rewriting the network's history, triggering double spending, and censoring transactions.
XMR -7.5% in 24 hours.

• Ethereum - $4600.
Capital inflow into Ethereum ETF exceeded $1 billion for the first time.

• CRCL +1% after reporting, CIRCLE revenue in Q2 grew by 53% on stablecoins.

• eToro (ETOR, -8%) reports debut as a public company: Q2 profit rises to $30.2 million, assets under management grow 54% y/y.

• Visa (V, 0%) plans to increase its share of the stablecoin payments market.

• China's largest sovereign wealth funds are buying their own equity products, showing confidence in China's stock market - SCMP

• Block (XYZ, +2%) plans to offer small businesses a full-featured BTC banking package.

• Hedge funds continue to short ETH at record levels: the total volume of shorts in CME futures continues to set new records - CFTC.
On the spot, on the contrary, there are strong purchases.

• Fintech giant Stripe is developing a new blockchain, Tempo, in partnership with crypto venture firm Paradigm, - Fortune.

• Tesla (TSLA) is currently cutting prices more than other U.S. electric car makers
to maximize profits ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit that Trump repealed, analysts say.
The company cut prices by 9% in July (compared to a maximum of 4% cut by other EV makers).

• AirPods will be able to translate languages in real time.
This feature was spotted in an image in the iOS 26 beta 6 test.
The feature is expected to appear in AirPods Pro 2 and AirPods 4, and will likely require a compatible iPhone with Apple Intelligence to work.

• CRWV shares fall 10% after morning report.

• CAVA falls 22% after report.

• Today, the IPO of crypto company Bullish (BLSH) is planned at a price of $32-33.
Given the excitement in the market, trading will probably begin at a much higher price.

• Perplexity has made a $34.5 billion bid for Google Chrome
ahead of a major antitrust ruling against Google. However, Google is unlikely to sell the browser.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- German final consumer price index (CPI) data for July.
- UK RICS housing survey for July.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• OPEC monthly report:
OPEC cuts non-OPEC+ production growth forecast for 2026 to 630,000 b/d (previously 730,000 b/d).
OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.38 million b/d.
The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 remained unchanged at 1.29 million b/d.
OPEC expects US shale oil production to decline by 100,000 b/d next year.
OPEC oil production in July averaged 41.94 million b/d, up 335,000 b/d from June after OPEC+ increased quotas.

• US Inflation Indicators
CPI m/m = 0.2% (expected 0.2% / was 0.3%).
y/y = 2.7% (expected 2.8% / was 2.7%).
Core CPI m/m = 0.3% (expected 0.3% / was 0.2%).
y/y = 3.1% (expected 3.0% / was 2.9%).

• The market is increasing expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.

• Trump says he's considering filing major lawsuit against Powell over his mismanagement of Fed building construction
Schmid (Fed):
"Tariffs appear to have limited impact on inflation - reason to keep current policy unchanged, not reason to cut rates."
EJ Anthony suggests pausing monthly labor market report - Fox Business

• Bessent: The main thing to think about right now is whether to cut [the Fed's] interest rate by 50 basis points in September.
We'll need to see months, if not a year, of progress in the fight against fentanyl before we cut tariffs on Chinese goods.

• The US government budget deficit widened sharply in July.
Revenue from tariffs rose to a record of about $20 billion.
Government spending rose by 9.7% y/y to almost $630 billion.
Government revenues grew by only 2.5% y/y to $338 billion.
The deficit rose to $291 billion ($243 billion a year earlier).

• The outcome of the meeting between Putin and Trump could be an agreement on developing two roadmaps - on Ukraine and the normalization of bilateral relations
- Thomas Graham, former special assistant to former US President George W. Bush.

• Europe is preparing for war
FT satellite analysis reveals historic scale of rearmament.
Arms production in Europe is growing three times faster than in peacetime - more than 7 million m² of new factories and infrastructure.
Key facts:
- Artillery shell production capacity has increased from 300,000 in 2022 to 2 million in 2025.
- Rheinmetall will increase production of 155mm shells by 15 times by 2027, BAE Systems - by 16 times.

• Switzerland wants Trump to formally and firmly confirm the waiver of gold tariffs to ensure trade stability, - Reuters.

• India and China to resume direct flights after nearly 5 years amid growing tariff tensions between the US and India.

• Chinese refiners are ordering less oil from Saudi Arabia, a decline that likely points to a realignment of global flows amid rising availability of Russian oil, Energy Aspects reports.

• China to create world's largest shipbuilder - WSJ
China is merging two state-owned companies in a $16 billion deal to create a global industry leader.
The U.S. is trying to rebuild its own shipbuilding industry, but President Trump's plans are facing challenges.
The future giant, China State Shipbuilding, will have more than 530 ships on order and a major role in military production.

• Prices for tanks, armored vehicles and artillery will fall, not rise, the head of Rheinmetall said.
According to Armin Papperger, the increase in defense budgets of European countries will not lead to inflation and waste of taxpayers' money. Thanks to the increase in order volumes and automation of processes, the final price of defense products will become profitable for both the manufacturer and the buyer, the chairman of the board of the German defense concern told the British Financial Times.

• Taylor Swift's latest album accounted for more than 6% of all album sales in 2024.