Fed Chairman Powell's speech, strong Microsoft and Meta reports, geopolitics and stock news
Latest stock market news
• The US Federal Reserve expectedly kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%.
Two members of the Federal Reserve spoke in favor of cutting rates by 0.25%. This was the first time since 1993 that there was such a divergence of opinions.
Powell's speech was tough. The probability of a rate cut in September fell from 63% to 41%. A month ago it was 95%.
• Stocks were down slightly yesterday (S&P 500 down 0.12%) after the Fed chairman's speech and the diminished chances of a Fed rate cut in September. Semiconductors supported the optimistic sentiment.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up an average of 1% this morning in positive reaction to the MSFT and META reports.
The US dollar rose, with the dollar index almost back to 100. It was 96 in early July. The dollar is having its best week since 2022.
Trade deals and stablecoins strengthen the dominance of the US and the dollar.
• The yen strengthened 0.6% today after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold as expected. Markets are expecting inflation forecasts to rise, with Governor Ueda due to speak soon, as traders expect rate hikes to be back on the agenda this year.
• Midway through the second-quarter earnings season, Nasdaq futures jumped 1.3% after strong results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms. The U.S. dollar held steady after hitting a two-month high, on track for its first monthly gain this year. “It’s been a great earnings season and that’s the main reason why U.S. stocks continue to rally, but the full burden of tariffs hasn’t been felt yet,” said David Chao, global Asia-Pacific market strategist at Invesco in Singapore.
• MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan fell 0.7%, although it was on track for a fourth straight monthly gain. Hong Kong's stock market led the decline, falling 1.1% after official PMI data showed weaker-than-expected activity in July.
• Copper futures fell 19.4% after US President Donald Trump said the United States would impose a 50% tariff on copper.
• The Korean won rose 0.1% after Trump said the United States would impose a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea. The Asian nation will invest $350 billion in American projects and buy $100 billion in American energy. The announcement was the latest in a series of trade policy agreements rushed ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline set by Trump to conclude trade deals before the United States imposes so-called Liberation Day tariffs.
• Trump also made a series of tariff announcements covering both goods from Brazil and low-value shipments from abroad.
• In early European trading, pan-regional futures rose 0.2%, with Germany's DAX futures up 0.2% and FTSE futures up 0.1% ahead of another round of earnings and inflation data.
• ChatGPT now has a “Study Mode”
The Study and Learn feature can:
- Explain any information step by step;
- Adapt to your level and customize learning for you;
- Analyze photos of homework;
Free for all users.
• Zuckerberg said in an open letter that Meta wants to create a “personal superintelligence” for everyone.
• Apple (AAPL) has lost its fourth AI specialist in a month. All of them have moved to Meta (META), - Bloomberg.
• Telegram is testing paid search by posts - with limits and payment for stars.
The new functionality will allow you to search for publications by keywords in all channels.
• Jefferies expects Apple to raise prices on iPhone 18.
• Deutsche: Foreign investors already own 18% of all US shares = record.
• The White House has put the nomination of a new CFTC chief on hold because his team is demanding confidential information about the Polymarket and PredictIt platforms, while the nominee currently sits on the board of their competitor, Kalshi.
/ CFTC — Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Oversees commodity exchanges in the United States.
• Toyota Motor (TM, -1%) posted record global sales in the first half of 2025, Bloomberg reported.
Toyota increased sales by 7.4% to 5.5 million vehicles. Production rose by 8.8%, with domestic output in Japan up nearly 20%.
• Traders are buying USD/JPY call options in anticipation of a rate above 150 per dollar, Bloomberg reported.
The probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates this year is estimated at 74%, but new US tariffs on Japanese goods may force the central bank to wait.
• Investors in China appear to be switching from gold-backed exchange-traded funds to local stocks, Bloomberg says.
• Mercedes-Benz profits fell by more than half due to US tariffs.
In the second quarter of 2025, Mercedes-Benz earned around 2.7 billion euros, down 55.8% compared to the same period last year.
• Revolut is considering buying a US bank to obtain a US license.
• Tesla has signed a $4.3 billion battery supply deal with LG Energy.
The batteries will not be used for cars, but for energy storage systems in the U.S.
• GlaxoSmithKline (GSK, +3%) reported better than expected results amid strong demand for vaccines.
• Adidas reports better than expected Q2 earnings
• Danone reported better than expected results for Q2. Everyone is actively consuming yogurts, washing them down with protein shakes, the company reported.
• Tesla (TSLA) + LG Energy Solution = $4.3B contract for LFP batteries for energy storage (2027-30).
• After $16.5 billion chip deal with Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), the company is reducing its dependence on China.
• Boeing (BA, 0%) reaffirms $3B/yr FCF target. Record 150 jets in Q2, ramps up 737/787 production, adds defense orders.
• Booking Holdings (BKNG, +0.4%) raised its forecast.
Bookings +8%, revenue +16%, driven by Europe and Asia; continues to invest in AI and alternative accommodation.
• Meta Platforms (META) under scrutiny from Italian antitrust authority:
AI integration into WhatsApp could “lock” users into its own ecosystem.
• Starbucks (SBUX, 0%) to launch Green Apron service in all U.S. locations by August, invest $0.5 billion in staff through 2026; China traffic hits record
• Marathon Digital (MARA, 0%):
Hashrate target 75 EH/s by end of year, Bitcoin reserve > 50k, Q2 revenue record after infrastructure expansion.
• Humana (HUM, +12%) beat expectations, raising its 2025 EPS forecast despite a decline in Medicare Advantage.
• Seagate (STX, -3%): Q4 revenue +30% y/y, record margin. Resumes share buybacks — boom in nearline drives from cloud giants.
• Altria (MO, +4%) beats consensus,
confirms full-year EPS range; oral offsets cigarette decline
• Generac (GNRC, +20%): Q2 sales +6%.
Updated guide - growth of 2-5% in 2025, duties less than expected.
• Petrobras (PBR, +1%): Q2 production +8%.
Exports to China are growing, although service costs are also rising.
• GE HealthCare (GEHC, -8%): Q2 revenue +3.3%.
Demand in the US and Europe; 2025 guidance increased, with further revenue and EPS growth expected.
• Stablecoin transaction volume in Q1 2025 was almost 2x that of Visa.
Exceeding the $6 trillion mark — Bitwise.
Visa has already processed over $200 million in stablecoin transactions.
We see real potential in stablecoins. — Visa CEO.
• Coinbase has partnered with JPMorgan.
The partnership will allow users to make credit card purchases on Coinbase and redeem Chase points for USDC.
• The United States has signed a new contract with Lockheed Martin (LMT, 0%) to produce THAAD interceptors.
The additional agreement is worth more than $2 billion and increases the total contract value by more than $10 billion.
• Elon Musk's company to build tunnel route in Nashville.
The Boring Company plans to connect downtown to the airport with a 10-mile underground system financed by private funds.
• Copper futures fell 19% yesterday.
This was a negative factor for other base metals - silver fell 1.6%, platinum 3.8%, palladium 1.8%.
Gold fell 0.4% - here the dollar strengthened more than one percent.
Copper fell, since Trump's import tariff will not include refined copper.
• New IPO price of Figma (FIG) is $33.
Above the last upper limit of $30-32.
The market today expects a sharp rise in FIG shares from the first seconds of trading. It remains to be seen where the market will open - $40, 50, 60 ... 80?
• Ambiq Micro (AMBQ) shares soared 67% yesterday after their IPO.
Shares opened at $38, well above their initial public offering price of $24. The stock peaked at $48.43 and closed at $41.80.
Stocks Premarket After Reports
MSFT +8%
META +11%
QCOM -5%
ARM -9%
LRCX -5%
HOOD -1%
EQIX +0%
CVNA +16%
CP +1%
AEM +3%
ALL -0%
PSA -1%
F -2%
FICO -1%
CTSH -2%
PRU -0%
EBAY +11%
Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- U.S. earnings: Apple, Amazon.com, Mastercard.
- European earnings: Shell, Unilever, British American Tobacco, London Stock Exchange Group.
- German data: June import prices, July unemployment rate, preliminary CPI and HICP for July.
- French data: July preliminary CPI, June producer prices.
- Eurozone data: June unemployment.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Germany GDP Indicators:
q/q = -0.1% (expected -0.1% / pop. 0.4%).
y/y= +0.4% (expected +0.2% / pop. 0.0%).
• EUROZONE - GDP (Q2 2025R).
q/q = +0.1% (expected 0% / previously +0.6%).
y/y = +1.4% (expected +1.2% / previously +1.5%).
• US - ADP Nonfarm Employment (July) = +104K (expected +77K / previously -34K -23K).
US - GDP (Q2 2025R - preliminary) = +3% q/q (expected +2.5% / previously -0.5%).
• Trump again calls on Powell to lower the rate: no inflation, good GDP.
US GDP growth in the second quarter was largely due to the positive contribution of imports.
US - Pending Home Sales (June) = -0.8% m/m (expected +0.2% / previously +1.8%).
• TRUMP on India. India has always bought the vast majority of its military equipment from Russia and is Russia's largest energy buyer, along with China, while everyone wants Russia to stop military action in Ukraine - none of this is in their interests!
SO, STARTING FROM AUGUST 1ST, INDIA WILL PAY A CUSTOMS DUTY OF 25% PLUS PENALTIES FOR THE ABOVE.
South Korea to Pay 15% Import Tariff to USTrump: The United States of America has agreed to a full and comprehensive trade agreement with the Republic of Korea. The agreement provides that South Korea will transfer $350 billion to the United States for investments that will be owned and controlled by the United States and that I, as President, will select. In addition, South Korea will purchase $100 billion in liquefied natural gas (LNG) or other energy products and has agreed to invest a significant amount of money for its investment purposes. Trump signed an order imposing a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil. The order will go into effect in seven days.
Civilian aircraft and their components, aluminum, tin, wood pulp, energy products and fertilizers are on the list of goods subject to withdrawal and will be subject to a 10% tax.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Tuesday he had warned Chinese officials that further purchases of Russian oil, which is under sanctions, would result in high tariffs because of a bill in Congress. But China has said it will defend its energy sovereignty. - RTRS./ The bill is not yet law.
• Effective August 29, the US will eliminate de minimis benefits for imported goods shipped through the international postal network valued at up to $800.
These goods will be subject to full duty.
In the first phase, these imported goods will be subject to a new two-tier tariff structure, including a temporary flat duty of between $80 and $200 per item.
Trump’s closing of the de minimis loophole will be a problem for Temu and Shein, which have used the loophole to send millions of low-value packages directly to US consumers without paying duty or going through rigorous inspections.
• The deportation of 1.3 million workers in the US (Trump's plan) could cost the economy more than 1.2% of GDP and add 0.5-0.6% to inflation in 2026, - Peterson Institute.
The hardest hit will be:
Agriculture, where 42% of hired workers are undocumented.
Construction - 13.7%.
Hotel and restaurant industry - 7.1%.
• Arab countries have called on Hamas to step down from power in Gaza.
Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have signed a document calling on the radical Islamist group Hamas to end its rule in the Gaza Strip and hand over weapons to the Palestinian Authority with international support.
• The EU failed to impose sanctions against Israel.
Germany and Italy played a key role in blocking the initiative.
• Germany's public debt per capita has peaked.
The volume of public debt in Germany increased by 2.6% to around €2.51 trillion by the end of 2024, according to the Federal Statistical Office.
Per capita, the debt was €30,062, €669 more than the previous year. The €30,000 mark in public debt per person was exceeded for the first time.
• The idea of creating a European Defence Union, which would include Norway, Great Britain and Ukraine. I plan to start promoting it in the autumn and present to EU leaders an action plan until 2030 to prepare the armies for combat readiness, - EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Policy Andrius Kubilius.
• Germany is preparing large orders for aircraft and armored vehicles, – Reuters.
• Poland asks the EU for 45 billion euros for militarization.
Warsaw has decided not to strengthen its defense at its own expense and has sent a request to Brussels for 45 billion euros from the EU militarization fund. This is almost a third of all available funds allocated in the European military construction program until 2030.
• Poland is starting to have serious problems due to the lack of Ukrainian grain.
Polish terminals are empty, but spend millions on maintenance. Jobs in ports and transport companies are at risk. Meanwhile, Romania, Germany and Turkey accept and reload Ukrainian grain, making money on it.
The blocking of imports in Poland threatens layoffs in the transport sector and port enterprises.
• No more stamps in passports: a new system for entering the EU will come into force on 12 October.
Border crossings will be recorded digitally. The system collects biometric data – in particular fingerprints and facial images – and will gradually completely replace the practice of stamping passports.
• Europe continues to import LNG at record levels.
Deliveries since April have exceeded 48 billion cubic meters — Gas Infrastructure Europe.
• Russia intends to take control of Moldova in the fall, said Maia Sandu.
A meeting of the Supreme Security Council of Moldova was held in Chisinau, at which the country's president, Maia Sandu, warned of possible Russian interference in the parliamentary elections, TV8 reports.
• Schiff: "In the future, when people think about inflation, they won't think of Biden or even Carter. Trump will go down in history as the president of inflation."
• China is stepping up efforts to create a domestic AI ecosystem that can function without Western technology — WSJ.
• Poland estimated losses from American duties at $2.2 billion.
• Iran plans to abandon GPS and replace it with China's BeiDou system.