Donald Trump's inauguration and his first steps, TikTok and cryptocurrency, a day off on the stock exchanges
Stock market news
• Markets are looking ahead to Donald Trump's first hours in office to set the tone for his second term. With U.S. markets closed for Martin Luther King Day, the focus will be on currency markets and stock and bond futures.
• Market performance often returns to more reliable links to economic trends during presidential terms, but Trump has tended to bring volatility and heralded bold policy changes.
He became the first president since Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s to serve two non-consecutive terms, and his return was greeted with trepidation by markets.
• As the dollar has slid toward multiyear highs in recent weeks, traders are wondering whether it can pull back if Trump moves slowly. They are also wondering whether tariffs are actually good for the dollar. Investors have been selling bonds and buying dollars since mid-September, expecting not only that Trump will speed up growth but also that his push to raise tariffs, cut taxes and crack down on immigration could fuel inflation. He has said he will sign about 100 executive orders within hours of taking office, and at a rally Sunday he repeated vows to deport immigrants, cut regulations and free up energy resources. He had an apparently friendly phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.
• Trump will take the oath of office at noon ET (1700 GMT) in the rotunda of the Capitol building. Cold weather will make the ceremony indoors for the first time in 40 years. Trump underscored his unpredictability by saying he would “save” the Chinese social media app TikTok, which was shut down in the U.S. on national security grounds under a law that took effect Sunday.
• He also launched a digital token on Friday that initially surged and then fell slightly after his wife Melania Trump launched a separate token, with even some seasoned cryptocurrency investors becoming concerned about the speculative surge. Bitcoin, which has surged more than 45% since Trump’s election, fell about 3% to $101,800, in what may be another hint that many expectations are already well priced into the market.
• TikTok went offline late Saturday and came back online at noon Sunday. It now looks like the app could stay online for 90 days while the government and others look for someone to buy the app's U.S. business.
Trump wants the U.S. to own 50% of TikTok.
Today, Trump will grant TikTok a reprieve from a U.S. law that bans the social media platform to strike a deal that protects national security.
He has proposed a joint venture in which the U.S. would own 50%, providing oversight and security.
• Perplexity files for merger with TikTok's U.S. unit - Bloomberg. AI Perplexity has filed with TikTok parent ByteDance Ltd. to merge with its U.S. operations and create a new entity, according to a person familiar with the matter.
• Europe is talking about the need to ban TikTok, following the example of the United States. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsanki said that Europe should consider banning the social network TikTok in Europe, following the example of the United States. According to him, this Chinese social network spreads disinformation, fake news and influences election results.
• Energy company seeking $110 billion valuation is banking on Trump's return - WSJ
U.S. natural gas exporter Venture Global plans to go public at a favorable time for the LNG industry, cementing the company's rapid growth.
• Markets will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and all eyes will be on the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. Investors are watching closely to see how Trump's tariff and tax policies will impact U.S. corporations.
• FactSet data shows the S&P 500 will rise 12.5% year over year this quarter, up from 11.5% expected last week. “While it’s still early, this is a strong start to a reporting period in which we expect stronger-than-average aggregate growth and maintain a positive earnings outlook,” Citi equity strategist Scott Hronert wrote in a note to clients Friday.
• Trump announced the launch of his own cryptocurrency - the TRUMP memecoin.
"It's time to celebrate everything we stand for: victory. Get your TRUMP now. Have fun," Trump wrote on X. The TRUMP memecoin has already reached a capitalization of $20 billion.
• The $TRUMP token has already dropped in price to $50. At its peak it was 75.
• Brussels has ordered Elon Musk to fully disclose recent changes to its X recommendations, stepping up an investigation into the platform's role in European politics - FT. The Commission's expanded investigation, announced on Friday, requires X to hand over internal documents relating to its recommendation algorithm. The commission has also issued a "preservation order" on all relevant documents relating to how the algorithm might be changed in the future.
• Intel (INTC) shares are up 9% on rumors of a potential takeover. Speculation includes Elon Musk as a possible buyer, according to a report from SemiAccurate. Citi analyst Christopher Danely expressed concerns about the outcome for Intel if strategic changes are not made. Takeover rumors have been circulating for months, adding intrigue to Intel's moves in the market.
• The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has released a study that highlights concerns about partnerships between tech giants and AI developers.
The report looks at Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI, Amazon’s with Anthropic, and Google’s with Anthropic. The FTC’s findings suggest that these partnerships could lead to complete acquisitions of AI developers by the tech giants, which could significantly impact the AI landscape.
• Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) shares rose 9% on Friday on reports of sale talks. A U.S.-listed drugmaker with a large market cap is believed to be interested in acquiring Madrigal. This follows previous reports of interest from major pharmaceutical companies looking for a treatment for liver disease.
• Starbucks (SBUX) CEO Brian Niccol outlined strategic changes in a letter to employees, focusing on improving the in-store experience and the brand's marketing story.
Starbucks aims to improve customer service, reduce wait times and foster internal leadership growth.
• Paramount Global (PARA) is reportedly considering settling a lawsuit filed by Donald Trump in an effort to ease tensions with the new administration. The lawsuit stems from a CBS News interview with Vice President Kamala Harris. Paramount's planned merger with Skydance could be affected by the political climate.
• Lufthansa completes acquisition of 41% stake in Italian airline ITA Airways - Bloomberg.
• TikTok ban threatens to take billions of dollars from content creators and small businesses that rely on it - WSJ But TikTok ban could benefit Meta, YouTube and other social media platforms - Morgan Stanley analysts
• Record capital outflows in China weigh on yuan - Bloomberg As if the yuan wasn't already under pressure from a weak Chinese economy, a rising dollar and the prospect of higher U.S. tariffs, the currency is facing trouble.
• Amazon (AMZN) suspends drone deliveries in the U.S. after test site crash, Bloomberg
• The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has decided to grant approval for the $53 billion merger of Chevron (CVX) and Hess - Reuters.
• OpenAI is finalizing a version of its “o3 mini” AI model and will launch it soon. The company has taken user feedback into account and accordingly plans to release the API and ChatGPT simultaneously, Altman said.
• The U.S. Energy Department said Friday it is providing $1.2 billion in federal funds to finance renewable energy projects in Puerto Rico to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels - AP
• Speculative currency traders have increased bets on an even stronger U.S. dollar ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House - Bloomberg
• The economic calendar is light, with only news on activity in the services and manufacturing sectors and an update on consumer sentiment.
In corporate news, 43 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly results, with Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and 3M Company (MMM) standing out.
Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- Donald Trump presidential inauguration
Fundamental news
• Donald Trump wants to visit China within 100 days of his inauguration - The Wall Street Journal. Trump's visit could reportedly take place in the coming months. He has already communicated his desire to visit Beijing to his advisers.
• Newly elected President of the United States Donald Trump has broken his own previous record for raising money for his inaugural committee. The amount of funds raised since November 2024 has already exceeded $150 million - The Washington Post, citing sources. For Joe Biden, this amount was only $62 million in 2021.
• “Fuck Trump!”, “Transgender lives matter!”, “Feminists against fascists” and “People over politics”
were chanted by tens of thousands of protesters who took part in the “People’s March” in Washington against the inauguration of newly elected President Donald Trump.
• German Ambassador: Trump could change the constitutional order in the US, writes DW. The German Ambassador to Washington, Andreas Michaelis, sent a confidential document to the government in Berlin, in which he describes Donald Trump's plans for a second term in the White House as a program of "maximum destruction" that will ultimately lead to "a revision of the constitutional order - maximum concentration of power in the hands of the president to the detriment of Congress and the federal states."
• Donald Trump's accession to the US presidency could be a boost to Europe's role on the world stage, CDU leader Friedrich Merz reports to Tagesschau. "I think Donald Trump is fairly predictable. He does what he says. So I am confident that there will be much more clarity in the coming weeks and months."
• Trump's team wants regime change in Venezuela - Axios. "We wouldn't mind Maduro being next to Assad in Moscow," an adviser to the US president-elect involved in the discussion of the new administration's foreign policy told Axios. As other sources note, regime change in Venezuela does not necessarily imply US military intervention. How exactly Trump intends to remove Maduro from power is still unclear, Axios notes.
• Rome must be the capital of the EU, said Italian Prime Minister Meloni. The capital of Italy is Rome! Rome! Rome is the capital of Italy, and I will tell you more! Rome must be the capital of the EU. And I want to address this demand to the European Parliament. Because the capital of the EU cannot be a place to house offices, it must be a place that best represents its thousand-year-old identity.
• Russian intelligence services are trying to recruit Poles to destabilize the situation in the country before the elections. Polish authorities have received information that Russian intelligence services are in contact with groups of specialists on the darknet, through which Moscow pays Poles for “actions against their state,” said Polish Digitalization Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski.
• The Houthis have caused $200 billion in damage to the global economy - The Economist. The cost of shipping goods by sea has increased fivefold since Yemen's Houthis forced merchant ships to go around Africa in 2024, The Economist writes. As a result, fuel consumption has increased, and each voyage has become about $1 million more expensive. Insurance rates for shipping on the Red Sea have increased 20-fold.
Egypt suffered the greatest direct losses, losing $7 billion in revenue from the Suez Canal. The United States spent five billion dollars to protect ships. Russia and China have benefited from the Houthis' actions, The Economist points out.
• The European Central Bank probably has room to continue cutting borrowing costs as inflation approaches 2%, but must proceed with caution, the ECB Executive Board said.
• Trump will begin large-scale deportations of migrants on the morning of January 21, - WSJ. First - Chicago, then New York, Los Angeles, Denver and Miami. It is planned to use 100 to 200 US police officers to carry out raids next week.
• Lithuania plans to spend 5-6% of its GDP on defense in the period from 2026 to 2030, says the country's President Gitanas Nauseda. Nauseda's statement comes amid Donald Trump's demand that NATO members increase defense spending.
• A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will go into effect this morning. The ceasefire agreement includes the release of Israeli hostages still held by Hamas militants. Israel, for its part, has promised to release more than 700 Palestinian prisoners from its jails.
• Elon Musk announced the start of a new political campaign MEGA - “Make Europe Great Again”.
• Trump has appointed Sean Curran, his personal bodyguard who became the hero of the assassination attempt on him, as director of the US Secret Service - BILD.
• The United States has begun deploying modified B61-12 nuclear bombs in Europe. The Pentagon received the final batch of the new bombs in December. The exact number has not been disclosed.
• German business prepares mass protests - Bild. Due to economic problems in Germany, almost 50 business associations are planning large-scale demonstrations in Berlin and other cities on January 29. They call it a "warning day."
The heads of companies and associations are calling for lower taxes, a halt to the growth of social security contributions, and a reduction in bureaucratic barriers.
• Nigeria became the ninth BRICS partner country. The country is the most populous on the African continent and also shares the lead in nominal GDP with South Africa and Egypt, which are full BRICS members.
Thus, three of the four largest African economies have become members or partners of the association.
• The US Treasury will begin taking measures to prevent default on January 21. The emergency measures will last until March 14. According to Yellen's statement, the department will suspend the allocation of funds for the payment of some benefits.
• Trump team plans to revamp federal agency's wealth fund. President-elect Donald Trump's team wants the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to function more like a sovereign wealth fund and be an effective tool for deploying economic power, Bloomberg News reported Friday.
• China's crude oil refining capacity fell for the first time in two decades, driving fuel demand down sharply. Collapsing refining margins in 2024 have led to the first annual decline in China's refinery output in 20 years, driven by a depressed economy and the rise of EVs.
• A court in South Korea has decided to take the country's president into custody - Renhap news agency.