Donald Trump Tariff Deadline, Awaiting US Employment Data, Corporate News & Geopolitics
Latest stock market news
• The tariff deadline arrived, and President Donald Trump took action, slapping new tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, including some with which he has no trade agreements. The rates were set at 35% for Canada, 25% for India, 20% for Taiwan and 19% for Thailand. Switzerland got a whopping 39% — one of the highest — raising the question: What does Trump have against the Swiss? For not buying enough American chocolate or watches?
Arguably, most of the tariffs are lower than those imposed on April 2, which sent markets plummeting. In addition, major trade deals were struck with Japan and the European Union, while negotiations with China and Mexico are still ongoing. That’s probably why the market reaction was much more muted this time around. Of course, most Asian stocks fell, but only slightly. South Korea was an exception, with its shares down more than 3%, partly due to the removal of domestic tax breaks .
Taiwan's president said the 20 percent levy was temporary and expected to be further reduced once an agreement was reached.
• Wall Street and European stocks appeared unfazed by the tariff news. EUROSTOXX 50 futures fell 0.3%. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, led by a 6% drop in Amazon shares after its earnings missed expectations.
• Now, following the tariff news, the eurozone's preliminary CPI is due out later today and a small rate cut from 2.0% year-on-year to 1.9% in July is expected. Markets have priced in only half of the European Central Bank's rate cut by early next year.
And then it all comes down to the wait for payrolls data, which will be crucial to hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, now estimated at just 40%, down from 75% a month ago.
Forecasts are based on a 110,000 gain in July, with the unemployment rate likely to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. Any unexpected improvements could reduce the likelihood of growth next month, giving dollar bulls another reason to rally.
• The U.S. dollar is on track for its best week in nearly three years, rising 2.5% against its peers, confirming its recent uptrend from a three-year low. It was supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve that held off on easing policy over tariff risks. Indeed, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation rose slightly overnight, suggesting some impact from the tariffs.
• Even the excellent market reaction to the META and MSFT reports did not help to keep stock indices from closing the last day of July within 0-1% of their decline. The XLK and XLV sectors, as well as TSLA, were the leaders in the decline.
In the morning, the markets are generally neutral.
However, Bitcoin falls to $115 thousand. Another cryptocurrency is also in correction.
August is considered a weak month for the stock market seasonally. Therefore, the market is nervous.
Today, data on the US labor market will be published. We are following the news and the market reaction.
• White House: Trump Backs Congress' Stock Trading Ban
White House: Nancy Pelosi Rightfully Faces Criticism: Her Net Worth Reaches $431 Million, Her Stock Portfolio Is Up 70% in 2024
• Trump demands major US drug makers lower drug prices within 60 days
or face consequences.
• London stock market rises on Rolls-Royce earnings and rate cut hopes,
while FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 gain despite fresh US tariffs and falling copper prices.
• Barclays notes that retail investors are currently the main driver of growth in the US stock market.
OTC trading volumes remain near record levels and are significantly higher than in 2021. The situation is reminiscent of the retail “mania” period of the same year: the market growth is again mainly provided by lower-quality companies.
• South Korean auto industry could lose $5 billion due to US tariffs - BBG.
• The US has called stablecoins a competitive response to the Chinese equivalent of SWIFT, based on the yuan (CIPS).
• Tether has issued $20 billion in USD₮ since the beginning of the year.
Having become one of the largest holders of US government debt with $127 billion in Treasuries, net income was about $4.9 billion in Q2 2025.
Schiff argues that stablecoins do not increase demand for Treasuries, but only redistribute it.
Money from money markets flows into stablecoins, but buyers lose interest to issuers. Issuers buy only short-term bonds, which increases long-term yields, affecting mortgage rates.
• SEC announces the launch of the Crypto Initiative project.
To modernize the rules of the securities market and transition the markets to blockchain.
• Gold demand remains strong despite record high prices - WGC
Gold demand up 3% in Q2
• Ford (F) said Trump tariffs will cost the company about $2 billion this year.
Ford shifts focus to Ford Pro: EBIT-25 guide $6.5-7.5 billion, cuts investment in future EVs.
• Tesla (TSLA) launched a ride-hailing service in San Francisco.
• AbbVie (ABBV) in talks to buy Gilgamesh Pharma for ~$1 billion, another move after losing Humira patent.
• Cognizant (CTSH) raised guidance by 25.
Q2 revenue +7.2%, six AI contracts worth over $100 million.
• Q2 Holdings (QTWO) raised guidance.
On demand for fraud prevention and artificial intelligence solutions; Q2 revenue +13%, EBITDA $46 million.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) targets $22B in auto+IoT by 2029,
betting on AI chips; Q3 revenue was $10.4B
• Biogen (BIIB) +8% pre-open.
Leqembi brings in revenue, EPS-25 raised to $15.5-16.
• Bristol-Myers (BMY) beat Q2 estimates,
increasing sales-25 but lowering EPS due to expenses from the BioNTech deal.
• Carvana (CVNA) expects 3 million vehicle sales
and 13.5% margin over 5-10 years; Q2 revenue +42%.
• TTM Tech (TTMI) targets Q3 $690-730M
Q2 +21% on A&D, data center and networks.
• BTC open interest on CME reached $18.7 billion, the highest level since January 2025.
Bitcoin futures positions remain predominantly short.
• Microsoft surpassed the $4 trillion market cap mark after a strong report,
becoming the second company in the world after Nvidia, which entered the “club” with a market value of more than $4 trillion.
• Figma (FIG) shares have soared 250% since the IPO, setting a new record for large IPOs.
They are up another 24% in the post-market. The IPO was at $33. Trading opened at $85. FIG is now at $143.
The company's fwd P/S has exceeded 80x ($83 billion Mcap with expected revenue of $1-1.1 billion). Is this a bubble or a new valuation paradigm?
Renaissance Capital notes that until now, there has not been a single company that has raised more than $500 million during an IPO (FIG raised $1.2 billion) and its shares closed on the first day of trading at a price three times the IPO price.
• The market is now awaiting IPOs of Genesys Cloud Services, Canva Pty and Databricks.
Stocks in the morning after the report:
AAPL +2%
AMZN -7%
SYK -6%
KLAC -1%
MSTR -1%
COIN -9%
AJG -1%
NET +1%
RKT +6%
RDDT +18%
Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- Eurozone preliminary CPI for July.
- US employment data for July, ISM Manufacturing survey.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Eurozone labor market data:
Unemployment rate (June) = 6.2% (exp. 6.3%/pop. 6.2%).
• Trump: Jerome "Too Late" Powell has done it again!!! He is TOO LATE, and in fact TOO ANGRY, TOO STUPID and TOO POLITICAL to be the Fed Chairman. It's costing our country TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS
US - Initial Jobless Claims = 218K (expected 222K / previously 217K)
US - Continuing Jobless Claims = 1.946M (expected 1.960M / previously 1.955M)
US - Inflation - PCE Price Index (June):
MoM = +0.3% (expected +0.3% / previously +0.1% +0.2%)
YoY = +2.6% (expected +2.5% / previously +2.3% +2.4%)
Core PCE = +2.8% YoY (expected +2.7% / previously +2.7% +2.8%
The PCE inflation measure is starting to look no better, and by some measures even worse, than it did when the Fed started cutting rates last year. — WSJ analysts.
• Trump is imposing higher tariffs on goods from dozens of countries starting Aug. 7.
The average U.S. tariff rate would rise to 15.2% if the rates are implemented as planned, according to Bloomberg Economics.
That’s up from 13.3% and well above the 2.3% in place in 2024, before Trump took office.
Canada’s new 35% levy would go into effect on Friday, as promised (except for goods that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement).
For the five U.S. trading partners that received letters and entered into new agreements (the EU, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea), the new tariff rates would go into effect Aug. 7.
• One important exception to this week's deadline is China, whose tariff truce with the U.S. expires on Aug. 12.
TRUMP: I don't care what India does to Russia. Let them destroy their dead economies together, I don't care. We do very little business with India, their tariffs are too high, some of the highest in the world. Likewise, Russia and the U.S. do almost no business with each other. Let's leave it at that and tell Medvedev to watch his words. He's entering very dangerous territory!
Rubio: India's decision to continue buying oil from Russia is certainly a source of irritation in our relations with India.
Trump has clearly expressed frustration that with so many oil suppliers, India continues to buy oil from Russia. India's purchase of oil from Russia finances the military action against Ukraine.
/ Lead-in to financing international terrorism.
• TRUMP: Mexico will continue to pay a 25% tariff on fentanyl, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 50% tariff on steel, aluminum, and copper. In addition, Mexico agreed to immediately eliminate its non-tariff trade barriers, of which there were many. We will negotiate with Mexico over the next 90 days with the goal of signing a trade agreement within the 90-day period or longer.
• White House special envoy Steve Witkoff to visit Israel to discuss humanitarian crisis in Gaza - Axios
• Trump announced an agreement with Pakistan to jointly produce oil.
“We are in the process of selecting an oil company to lead this partnership. Who knows, maybe they will sell oil to India someday!” – Trump.
• The President of Brazil accused the United States of interfering in the Brazilian justice system.
US interference in the Brazilian judicial system is unacceptable. The country will defend its sovereignty and seek new partners for cooperation - President Lula da Silva.
• Canada has just announced that it supports statehood for Palestine. This will make it very difficult for us to reach a trade agreement with them. Oh, Canada!!!
15 countries ready to recognise Palestine - France24.
Most EU members have joined France in expressing their readiness to recognise Palestine as a sovereign state, launching a new wave of diplomatic efforts ahead of a key UN General Assembly session in September, the French Foreign Ministry said.
• The Donald Trump administration has imposed its largest package of sanctions against Iran yet — US Treasury.
The more than 115 sanctions imposed today are the most sweeping since the Trump administration launched its maximum pressure campaign against Iran.
• The United States plans to land on the Moon before the end of Trump's presidential term, says acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy.
• The Bank of Japan raised its inflation forecasts, softened its risk assessment.
The BOJ raised its inflation forecasts for all three years through fiscal 2027, gave a less gloomy outlook for the economy than three months ago and said the risk assessment for the inflation outlook is now "broadly balanced."
• China suspends investment in US companies as trade war escalates - NIKKEI.
• Energy companies operating in Brazil have temporarily suspended oil exports to the United States after a 50 percent tariff was imposed.
- Reuters, citing the president of the Brazilian Petroleum Institute, Roberto Ardenga.
Muhammad is the most popular name for newborns in Britain in 2024.
- The country's Office for National Statistics.
China Manufacturing PMI fell more than expected
Actual 49.5 (expectations 50.2, prev 50.4)