Current stock exchange and geopolitical news for traders, calm in the markets, possible revision of tariffs
Latest stock market news
• Fly in cheaper - yesterday the mood on the markets was to buy risk. Stock indices rose by an average of 2%. Purchases were made on a broad front. US government bonds fell by 1%. The Japanese yen also fell.
Everything is calm in the morning.
• The prospect of tighter-than-expected US tariffs has reignited investor optimism in recent days, but the softening rally in stocks is already showing signs of easing amid ongoing uncertainty about what happens next.
Asian shares followed Wall Street's lead and rose in early Asian trading on signs that talks could be underway to lift or narrow the scope of the bilateral tariffs, which are due to be announced on April 2. But by midday, Asian shares were wavering, while U.S. and European stock futures were down. The market swings underscore investor concerns about U.S. tariffs and the damage they could do to the global economy and corporate profits.
• US President Donald Trump signaled on Monday that not all of his threatened tariffs would be implemented on April 2 and that some countries could get relief. He also warned that auto tariffs would soon be imposed and imposed a 25% secondary tariff on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela.
• Among currencies, the focus during Asian hours was on the Indonesian rupiah, which fell to its lowest since the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s amid overall dollar strength and concerns about the financial health of Southeast Asia's largest economy.
• Investor confidence is weakening in Indonesia, where the stock market bore the brunt of investor discontent last week over Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's sweeping social spending plans.
• The dollar neared a three-week high against the yen and the euro after positive U.S. services data eased some concerns about the direction of the economy. But overshadowing all the action in markets is what is happening with tariffs — already imposed, proposed and underway — and whether they could undermine economic growth in the United States.
• International investors poured $43.4 billion into equity funds last week, the largest amount this year,
more than three-quarters of which went into U.S. equity funds. Local investors are snapping up shares of sharply weakened U.S. companies in anticipation of a rebound, according to BofA/EPFR.
• China's BYD reports 34% YoY profit growth in 2024 More trouble for Tesla China's best-known automaker has seen rapid sales growth in 2024, selling 500,000 more vehicles than forecast.
• Xiaomi sells shares worth $5.3 billion. The company wants to expand its car production.
• OPEC+ intends to implement plans to increase oil production in May.
• Google DeepMind (GOOG) CEO said that AI capable of competing with humans in any task will appear within 5-10 years.
• BlackRock is trimming its exposure to European high-yield bonds in favor of US ones. The company previously favored Europe, but now the spreads in the regions are almost equal, making that preference meaningless.
• Intel (INTC) has a chance to become 'viable' Intel has a chance for better times under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, but it will take some time, according to Band of America analyst Vivek Arya.
• Copper prices rose on Monday as traders took into account signs that US President Donald Trump's tariffs would be more targeted than expected.
• Fidelity, Schwab Block Orders for BlackRock, Texas Capital ETFs - Bloomberg Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab Corp. are barring clients from investing in money market ETFs on their trading platforms, an unusual move for financial giants that typically allow easy access to funds that are already trading.
• UK AI startup Fyxer has raised money from Benioff and other tech giants - Bloomberg. Fyxer AI, a productivity tools company, has raised $10 million from a group of prominent tech investors led by Harry Stebbing's venture capital firm 20VC.
• China's commerce minister tells Apple CEO the company may expand investment in China - Reuters
• Hyundai to invest $20 billion in U.S. manufacturing, reports say.
• Smithfield Foods (SFD) shares rose 3% after being added to the Russell 1000 index.
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) shares rose 30% after the space company reported a 79% jump in fourth-quarter revenue on a surge in contracts.
• First public company with 500K BTC. Strategy (MSTR) has become the first public company to hold more than $500,000 BTC in Bitcoin, worth over $44 billion.
My bet is that BTC will hit $110K before testing $76.5K again,” Arthur Hayes.
• Fidelity has filed with the SEC to register a tokenized fund, the Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund. The fund invests in U.S. cash and bonds, joining BlackRock and Franklin Templeton in the $4.77 billion tokenized real-world asset (RWA) space.
• World Network (WLD) Discusses Partnership with Visa. World Network (Worldcoin project) is in talks with Visa about creating a wallet for stablecoin payments. The integration could turn World Wallet into an analogue of a “mini-bank account” available to any user.
• SEC launches “Crypto 2.0” initiative
- Establishment of Presidential Task Force on Cryptocurrency
- On-chain and off-chain transactions must comply with traditional securities standards
- Increased oversight of centralized exchanges and DeFi platforms
- Creates DART system for tracking and reporting digital assets
• BBG Law analysts estimate the probability of the US government starting to buy BTC for crypto reserves this year as not very high, since there are already confiscated reserves, etc. + the implementation will be delayed.
Experts from the crypto industry believe that there may be many more positive surprises in this regard this year.
• OKLO shares are down 7% in premarket trading after the report. They were up 14% in stock trading yesterday.
The nuclear startup reported growing annual losses and noted that “significant” financial losses are expected in the near future.
• KBH shares are down 7% in premarket trading after the report. They were up 3% yesterday in stock trading.
The developer reported weak results amid a “subdued” start to the spring sales season.
The company also lowered its full-year guidance.
The lower guidance “primarily reflects the lower level of net orders we received in the first quarter.”
• Bank of America is set to appoint Vikram Sahu as its new country head for India.
• Sovereign wealth fund Danantara Indonesia has named a "dream team" of former presidents Sachs, Dalio and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin.
• Oaktree's Banca Progetto has been placed under special administration in Italy.
• BMO changes some mortgage rules for steel and aluminum owners due to trade war.
• US lifts sanctions on Tornado Cash, crypto mixer accused of laundering North Korean money.
• The source says the ECB will decide on a broader use of the capital-friendly rule next week.
• Sources say top executives at India's IndusInd Bank have been forced to resign; the bank denies the news.
• Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD's fourth-quarter profit rose 73%.
• In February, electric vehicles from Volkswagen and BMW overtook Tesla in sales in Europe.
• The head of the US-China Relations Committee said that China and the US need to cooperate on artificial intelligence.
• Some Chinese steelmakers are starting to cut production, heeding national calls.
• US retailers haggle with suppliers after Trump imposes tariffs.
• The acting head of the SEC voted alone against filing a lawsuit against Musk.
• US first-quarter earnings outlook looks less bright on tariff concerns.
• NYK Line chief says Japan and Korea will struggle to meet US demand for non-Chinese shipbuilding
• With the economic calendar in Europe relatively light, global trade tensions will remain in focus, even if market reactions are likely to be muted for now.
Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- Economic events: German business climate survey for March from the Ifo Institute.
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Fresh German business activity data:
Flash Manufacturing PMI = 48.3 (exp. 47.1/pop. 46.5).
Flash Services PMI = 50.2 (exp. 52.3/pop. 51.1).
• Fresh Eurozone business activity indicators:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI = 48.7 (v. 48.3/ pop. 47.6).
Eurozone Services PMI = 50.4 (exp. 51.2/ pop. 50.6).
• US Business Activity Indicators:
S&P Global Services PMI = 54.3 (prev. 51.2/ pop. 51.0).
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI = 49.8 (exp. 51.9/ pop. 52.7).
• U.S. business activity picked up in March, but growing concerns about import tariffs and deep government spending cuts continued to weigh on sentiment and the outlook for the rest of the year.
• Fed's Bostic sees only one rate cut this year, not two.
Sentiment at the U.S. central bank has gradually shifted toward smaller rate cuts, even as the White House calls for action.
• The US could face a cash crunch by July if it doesn't raise the debt ceiling - NYT.
The so-called X-date - the point at which the US will be unable to meet its financial obligations - will occur between mid-July and early October. That could lead to a default if Congress doesn't raise the borrowing limit.
• The US is reconsidering plans for new tariffs. According to the WSJ, the White House is likely to soften the announced duties, which are scheduled to take effect on April 2. Tariffs on cars, microchips and other industrial goods could be delayed or canceled.
• "Not a good ally": J.D. Vance said Denmark, which controls Greenland, is not doing its job
US Vice President J.D. Vance said that if the United States should increase its influence and territorial interest, then President Donald Trump will do it.
An American delegation is traveling to Greenland.
It includes the second lady of the United States, the wife of the country's vice president, Ushu Vance. The trip is scheduled for Thursday.
Also participating will be US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who will visit the Pituffik space base on the island.
• The US is imposing an additional duty on goods from Venezuela.
Any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% duty to the US.
• Israel plans large-scale military operation in Gaza Strip with temporary control of territory - WP.
• Romania and Bulgaria are concerned that negotiations between Russia and the US in Saudi Arabia could seriously change the situation in the Black Sea in Russia’s favor - FT.
• More than 13 million primaries participants nominated Imamoglu as a candidate for the presidency of Turkey.
In total, 15 million citizens took part in the primaries of the opposition Republican People's Party. This is almost a quarter of all registered Turkish voters.
• Germany is preparing to deploy American long-range missiles by 2026. German authorities consider this part of their security strategy, adopted in 2023 due to the “increased threat from Russia.” The German embassy in Moscow confirmed that the decision is in the country’s national interests.
• Egypt is building a new capital for $45 billion - a megacity of the future that will challenge the world's business centers.
The project began in 2015, but the name of the city is still being kept secret.
The new administrative center will be located to the east of Cairo, right up to the Suez Canal, and will be able to accommodate up to 6.5 million people. The authorities promise that it will become an economic and business giant on par with the world's leading megacities.
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: “We do not rule out the possibility of selling government bonds owned by the central bank.”
• China considers curbing its own exports to appease Trump - WSJ.
Chinese officials are reportedly studying Japan's 1980s strategy of cutting exports and raising prices.
• If nothing changes, US tariffs on other countries will rise much more in Trump's second term than in his first - BofA.
• Youth lasts up to 45 years: WHO has changed the age classification, and now up to 45 years old you are still young, - director of the Institute of Demography
Up to 60 years old is middle age, up to 75 is elderly, people 90+ are long-livers.