Corporate Stock Exchange Reporting Period and New Gold Records, Company News and Geopolitics

Stock market news

• European markets on Wednesday showed gold hitting another record, Treasury yields set to hit a three-month high and the U.S. dollar hitting its highest since Aug. 2, pushing the yen to nearly 152 yen per dollar.

• Yesterday, stock indices were neutral. Everything is also calm this morning. Government bonds continue to slowly fall in price and the yield on 10-year bonds exceeded 4.23%. Trump's chances of winning are growing and this is increasing inflation fears. Therefore, government bonds are falling in price. This supports a strong dollar of about 1.08 per euro.

• The yen's rapid weakening from around 140 per dollar in just a month came as Treasury yields climbed steadily above 4% after a string of strong U.S. economic data prompted traders to moderate their bets on a quick and deep cut in Fed interest rates.

• Markets are currently pricing in 41 basis points of cuts for the year, meaning traders are left guessing whether the Fed will cut 25 basis points in succession in November and December. The Fed began its easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut in September.

• Gold is rising along with the dollar, breaking their typical inverse correlation. That should be very bullish for the yellow metal, right? But only about a third of the time – yes.

• The Congressional Budget Office estimates that an influx of 8.7 million immigrants over five years could increase U.S. GDP by $8.9 trillion by 2034.

• Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses are selling better than classic Ray-Ban models. This trend is seen in 60% of Ray-Ban stores in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The glasses can receive calls, take photos, broadcast and send messages. At the same time, Meta has not yet released AI functions in the glasses in Europe due to strict regulatory legislation. When a compromise is found with them, sales should become even better.

• GE Aerospace is working to keep up with demand for LEAP engines. The company is working to ramp up production of the LEAP engines that power narrow-body jets from Airbus and Boeing.

• JPMorgan CEO Dimon considering Harris administration job - NYT

• Tokyo Metro shares soared 44 percent in their stock market debut on Wednesday after Japan's biggest IPO in six years raised $2.3 billion.

• Shares of Hyundai Motor India fell 7% on their market debut on Tuesday after retail investors gave India's biggest-ever IPO a cool reception.

• French cosmetics giant L'Oreal's third-quarter sales fell short of expectations as weak consumer confidence in China dented demand for beauty products.

• Norfolk Southern achieved significant earnings and operating ratio growth in the third quarter of 2024, and new CEO Mark George noted that the railroad “continues to close the margin gap” with peers.

• TSMC alerts US to chip in Huawei device One of TSMC's chips was found in a Huawei device after it was disassembled by research firm TechInsights.

• Gensler sees potential danger in $13 trillion Eurodollar market Wall Street's top cop is sounding the alarm that the Eurodollar market could trigger instability in the global economy, and he has again warned of the risks associated with private lending.

• JPMorgan, in contrast to Goldman, sees strong gains in stocks. Strategists at the two biggest Wall Street banks have come to different conclusions about where the U.S. stock market will go in the coming years.

• Norway's $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund hit its benchmark with a 4.4% return in the third quarter after a broad rally in equities. Moody's (MCO) reported third-quarter profit that beat estimates and raised its full-year forecast on bond demand.

• Apple (AAPL) is lagging behind AI developments. The company admitted that its new Apple Intelligence development is far behind other AI companies. ChatGPT and other neural networks provide significantly more capabilities than Apple's upcoming development.

• General Motors (GM) is signaling robust demand in the U.S. for its high-margin vehicles even as the broader market softens. The company posted better-than-expected results for its latest quarter and raised the lower end of its full-year profit forecast.

• McDonald's (MCD) shares are down 6% this morning after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said late Tuesday it is investigating an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounder burgers that has killed one person and hospitalized 10 people in 10 states.

- SBUX down 4% this morning. The company said it was struggling in Q4 and declined to provide a 2025 outlook. Shares after the report this morning
- TXN up 4%.
- CNI up 2%.
- BKR neutral.
- CSGP down 2%.
- STX down 5%.
- ENPH down 12%.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
Earnings: Akzo Nobel, Volvo Car, Swedbank, Heineken, Reckitt Benckiser, Lloyds Banking.

Fundamental news

• The rising odds of a Trump presidency in a US election that is still too difficult to predict and changing expectations for less aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve are causing investors to worry, leading to a sharp rise in safe-haven assets such as the dollar and gold.

• With the US presidential election less than two weeks away, investors are also increasingly gearing up for Election Day on November 5. While markets are reacting to Republican nominee Donald Trump's rising chances of defeating Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, according to betting sites, polls suggest the race for the White House remains too tight to predict.

• Harris had a slim 46% to 43% lead over Trump in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. Expect markets to be volatile in the lead-up, investors said. For now, markets are optimistic that a Trump presidency is coming, boosting the dollar and Treasury yields because Trump's policies, including tariffs and restrictions on illegal immigration, are likely to fuel inflation, keeping interest rates high for longer.

• The Russian Federation will not be able to continue its aggression against Ukraine without the help of Iran, the DPRK and China - the US in the UN Security Council. Information about the transfer of North Korean troops to the Russian Federation is proof that the war can end if Iran and the DPRK stop providing military assistance to the Russians. And also if China stops supplying dual-use goods.

• Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said he would not attend the BRICS summit in Kazan. He said that due to pressure from the West, he would hardly have been able to come to Russia anyway.

• Elon Musk has warned of the risk of US bankruptcy. If there is no radical reduction in government spending, then, like a person who has taken on too much debt, America will become effectively bankrupt. The American billionaire noted that interest on debt tends to quickly absorb all tax revenues, leaving nothing for critical needs.

• The US will restrict investment in AI, semiconductors, microelectronics and quantum computing in China. New rules will ban American investment in China's AI technologies and require reporting.

• China has tightened export controls on dual-use items following US sanctions. The measures, which will take effect on December 1, are aimed at “protecting national security and interests, promoting global non-proliferation cooperation, and strengthening and standardizing export controls on dual-use items.”

• End of 'fiscal greed': Argentina abolishes tax agency. Argentina's government has abolished its tax agency, the Federal Revenue Agency (AFIP), and replaced it with a "simplified" Customs and Collection Agency, cutting its staff by a third. "What belongs to each Argentine belongs to him and no one else. No government bureaucrat should be delegated the right to tell an Argentine what to do with his property," Argentine presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni told a news conference. Americans have cut back on holiday travel as inflation continues.

• U.S. consumers are planning shorter winter vacations and booking cheaper lodging, suggesting years of inflation are continuing to weigh on family budgets.

• The IMF has cut its global growth forecast for next year and warned of accelerating risks from wars to trade protectionism.