Bank of England rates, corporate news, new Trump statements and geopolitics
Latest stock market news
• The Bank of England, in focus, is expected to keep rates on hold as it monitors the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff offensive and the UK government's upcoming tax hikes on employers.
With inflation in Britain stubbornly above its 2% target, the Bank of England has cut borrowing costs less than the European Central Bank and the Fed since last summer, contributing to the country's sluggish economic growth.
Before that, investors will have UK wage data to chew on. Economy-wide wage growth, excluding bonuses, is expected to remain steady at 5.9% per annum in the three months to January.
• The Riksbank is also expected to leave rates unchanged on Thursday, while economists expect the SNB to cut its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point and keep it there until at least 2026.
• Trump weighed in on Fed policy on Wednesday, saying the central bank would benefit from cutting rates "as U.S. tariffs begin to (ease!) into the economy," just hours after he left rates unchanged.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Trump administration's initial policies, including sweeping import tariffs, appeared to have tilted the U.S. economy toward slower growth and at least temporarily higher inflation, although policymakers still forecast two rate cuts this year.
Despite risks to the U.S. economic outlook, investors chose to seize on the prospect of further Fed easing, sending Asian stocks higher on Thursday.
• Meanwhile, Europe opened mixed, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.07% and FTSE futures down 0.14%.
• Geopolitics also remained a focus for investors. The Israeli military said it intercepted a missile fired from Yemen early Thursday as fighting with the Houthis intensified. Trump threatened to punish Iran for its alleged support for the Yemeni militant group.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East sent oil prices higher on Thursday, with Brent crude futures up 0.55% and U.S. crude futures up 0.46%.
• However, these gains were limited by the prospect of Russian gas supplies resuming to the market after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said an end to energy strikes in the war with Russia could be achieved quickly.
Trump and Zelensky agreed Wednesday to work together to end Russia's war with Ukraine in an hour-long phone call the White House called "fantastic."
• Goldman Sachs: Oil prices are expected to rise in the coming months, even though it cut its price range forecast to $65-$80 this year.
• A German court has allowed strict antitrust controls over Apple (AAPL). Germany's Federal Court of Justice (BGH) explained that Apple is one of the world's largest companies with the highest sales and profit figures, and has "extraordinary financial and other resources." In addition, Judge Wolfgang Kirchhoff noted, Apple is able to project its influence across various markets and industries.
• U.S. crude oil imports from Canada fell to their lowest level since March 2023, according to the EIA.
• Telegram has become the second most popular messaging app in the world after WeChat. The number of active monthly users of the messenger has exceeded 1 billion - Durov.
• EU proposes to cut steel imports by 15% due to Trump tariffs - RTRS.
• Google accused of breaking landmark EU rules, Apple ordered to open up to rivals Google's Alphabet unit was charged on Wednesday with breaking landmark EU rules on two counts, while Apple was ordered to help rivals connect to its iPhones and iPads.
• International rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised upward its forecast for copper and aluminum prices in the coming years
due to imbalances in the global market, and for gold - due to geopolitical tensions. Tariff risks have led to record copper deliveries to US ports - Bloomberg.
• Tesla (TSLA) has been banned from the Vancouver International Auto Show over safety concerns amid protests against the company in Canada. This follows British Columbia Hydro's decision to exclude Tesla from its electric vehicle rebate program, highlighting ongoing trade tensions between Canada and the U.S.
• Shopify (SHOP) announced its decision to move its listing from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq.
The move is expected to take effect later this month and will not impact the company's listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
• Amazon's (AMZN) self-driving unit Zoox has recalled 258 vehicles due to issues with the automated driving system. The recall was triggered by potential hard braking scenarios, and all affected vehicles will be updated by November 7, 2024. Zoox is preparing to launch commercial robotaxi operations in 2025.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) is looking for big deals to boost growth after missing out on the AI wave last year.
The company is overhauling its stock-based performance evaluation system and considering extending it to employees to boost share price performance.
• Starboard Value has launched a fight against Autodesk (ADSK) by nominating director candidates for the company's upcoming annual meeting.
The activist investor is seeking to improve performance and restore investor confidence, citing Autodesk's poor performance and restructuring plans.
ADSK shares rose 3% yesterday.
• General Mills (GIS) cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts as demand for snacks slowed. Consumers, burdened by still-high inflationary prices, are looking for cheaper alternatives for their everyday needs, even as General Mills cuts prices on its products.
GIS shares fell 2% yesterday.
• Foxconn predicts that server revenue will exceed iPhone revenue within two years.
• Automaker Stellantis, whose brands include Fiat, Jeep and Peugeot, plans to name a new chief executive in the first half of the year, Chairman John Elkann said.
• Cardano sees most bullish sentiment in 4 months - Santiment data
• The US may be planning to integrate ADA into its digital infrastructure, according to recent clarifications on the SEC website
The SEC is preparing its first meeting on cryptocurrency regulation.
On March 21, the SEC will hold the first public meeting of its Crypto Task Force, where it will discuss key issues in the regulation of crypto assets. The meeting will be broadcast live.
The SEC has officially dropped its appeal against Ripple (XRP).
• VolShares' first-ever Solana (SOL) ETFs in the US launch today. One is 2x leveraged.
• Tars AI joins NVIDIA Inception Program.
TAI is one of the top AI projects on Solana that first gained attention in November 2024 through its collaboration with NVIDIA. Now, it has been officially accepted into the NVIDIA Inception Program, which provides access to cutting-edge AI, robotics, and accelerated computing technologies.
• GILD shares fell 2.5% yesterday
as the Journal reported that the Department of Health and Human Services is weighing plans to sharply cut federal government funding for domestic HIV prevention.
• BA shares rose 7% yesterday
after Chief Financial Officer Brian West told an investor conference that the planemaker's first quarter was in line with expectations.
• Stocks yesterday after reports.
SIG +17%
WSM -3.5%
HQY -17%
• Shares of retailer FIVE are up 13% in premarket trading after the report. The company beat expectations.
The securities market responded positively to the easing of monetary tightening (QT) by the Federal Reserve - both stocks and bonds rose in price. And in the morning, the growth in futures continues.
Investors are hoping for an influx of liquidity from the Federal Reserve, which has been printing dollars at a rate of only about 1% per annum since 2024.
That is why gold has updated its next historical maximum and is already $3057. And even Bitcoin has returned to $86 thousand.
Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- Policy decisions from the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank
- UK payroll data (January)
Current Fundamental Reviews
• Eurozone inflation slowed more than initially reported in February,
strengthening the case for the ECB to continue cutting interest rates.
President Donald Trump’s crackdown on the border has halved immigration from pre-pandemic levels, according to new analysis.
Eurozone CPI (YoY) +2.3% (exp. +2.4%, prev. +2.5%).
Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) +2.6% (exp. +2.6%, prev. +2.7%).
• BOJ Chairman Ueda:
- Inflation is gradually approaching 2%;
- We recognize that the current inflation is negatively affecting households;
- The exchange rate now has a greater impact on prices than before;
- I do not know what the impact of tariffs on the economy will be in the short term;
- We will react if there are abnormal movements in long-term yields;
- We will not raise rates if the economy is in bad shape.
• Record US mortgage refinancing denials - Bloomberg. 41.8% of Americans who applied for mortgage refinancing were denied - the highest rate in 12 years.
The inability to refinance could lead to forced home sales.
• The US Federal Reserve System, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged.
But it will reduce the volume of bond purchases from $25 billion to $5 billion per month from April 1. This means a softening of QT.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve System slightly worsened its forecasts for GDP, inflation and the US labor market.
• Trump tweeted hours after the Fed's decision:
"FED WOULD BE MUCH BETTER TO CUT RATES as US tariffs begin to permeate (ease!) the economy. Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!"
• I am a nationalist, a nationalist who acts in the interests of the United States - Trump.
In response to the question of why he has more in common with Putin than with globalist leaders.
The United States does not want Russia to get closer to China, Trump said.
"As a student of history, and I have studied it: the first thing you learn is that you do not want Russia and China to get closer," the US president said.
He accused Barack Obama of bringing Moscow and Beijing closer together because of "bad energy policy."
• The US is trying to reassure European allies about their role in talks to end Russia's war against Ukraine - Bloomberg.
US officials have told their European counterparts that the EU should be involved in any peace deal on Ukraine because Russia wants sanctions imposed by the bloc lifted as part of the deal.
• Vance is already being touted as the leading MAGA candidate for the 2028 presidential election. Having won the nomination just eight months after being named vice president, he has won the support of Trump supporters, financial elites, and the MAGA media empire. He is seen as the successor who can finally remake the Republican Party in the spirit of “America First” - Axios.
• A federal court in the United States has ordered the White House to reopen USAID, ruling that its closure was unlawful.
Judge Theodore Zhuang, appointed by Barack Obama, said Elon Musk and his department did not have the authority to liquidate the agency, and that any changes must be made by official USAID leadership. The government must now restore employees’ access to work tools and temporarily stop terminating contracts.
• Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu, Erdogan's main competitor in possible early elections in 2027, has been detained in Turkey. Protests have begun in Istanbul. Earlier, Istanbul University annulled Imamoglu's diploma following a request from the Prosecutor General's Office. The mayor first studied at a university in Northern Cyprus, and transferred to Istanbul from there, although the educational institution was not officially recognized at the time. Only candidates with higher education can participate in the race for the post of head of state in Turkey.
The Turkish lira hit a new historical low, almost reaching 41 lira per dollar. But at the end of the day, it returned below 38.
• China will invade Taiwan in 2027, Bloomberg reports, citing the conclusion of annual military exercises.
• Trump is set to sign an executive order today calling for the closure of the Education Department. But disbanding the agency would require an act of Congress, the same agency that created it in 1979.
• According to Polymarket odds, Liberal candidate Mark Carney is emerging as the favourite to win Canada's next election. For months, the market has been suggesting a landslide victory for Pierre Poilivier and the Conservative Party.
• Trump gave Iran two months to reach nuclear deal in letter - Axios
The Nuclear Deal is an agreement that limits Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.