An optimistic end to a difficult trading week with a partial recovery of markets

Stock reviews

• No one could have predicted how this turbulent week in the markets would end, but just one weekly report on jobless claims in the US was enough to record 233,000 initial jobless claims, down from 250,000 last year. week, less than economists had forecast to offset most of the damage after fears of a looming U.S. recession sent investors into panic.

• Asian stock markets rose across the board on Friday, following a strong rebound on Wall Street. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.6% and erased most of Monday's 13% fall, with a weekly fall of just 1.5% likely.
The yen is now expected to fall about 0.5% against the dollar this week after hitting a seven-month high on Monday, triggering an unraveling of the yen speculation driving the recent global market collapse. The carry trade is far from extinct, however, with JPMorgan estimating that the popular trade has reached perhaps $4 trillion in volume.

• Yesterday the stock market grew by 2-3%, driven by the growth of semiconductors - what fell more began to grow faster. The S&P 500 had its best day since November 2022. In Asia, stock indices are growing by 1-2%. Bitcoin is again above $61 thousand. Everyone is expecting a Fed rate cut.

• The story of China's economic slowdown, which has caused so much concern, is changing a bit. Consumer inflation data on Friday showed prices rose more than expected in July after trade data on Wednesday showed an unexpected acceleration in import growth. This suggests that the risk of the world's second-largest economy slipping into outright deflation has diminished.

• Meta sold $10.5 billion in long-term bonds.

• Nasdaq to tighten listing rules for penny stocks - WSJ. The exchange has come under pressure for allowing risky companies to remain listed through reverse stock splits.

• Three quarters of global carry trade positions liquidated - JP Morgan.

• Intel shareholders sued for covering up problems and inflating stock price. One of the key elements of the lawsuit is that the company lost more than $32 billion in market value in a single day.

• GM says it is continuing to operate in China despite the challenges. General Motors said Thursday it is committed to building a profitable and self-sufficient operation in China despite stiff competition from local brands. GM shares rose more than 4%.

• The FTX cryptocurrency exchange was ordered to pay clients $12.7 billion - US CFTC. In March, FTX founder Sam Benkman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for stealing $8 billion from clients. "The order requires FTX to pay $8.7 billion in restitution and $4 billion in compensatory damages, which will be used to further compensate victims," ​​the statement said.

• Apple changed its policy regarding app stores in the EU after an inspection by the European Commission. Allowing developers to communicate with their customers outside of apps after the European Commission in June charged the iPhone maker with violating the bloc's technology rules.

• U.S. mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels since May 2023. This gave potential home buyers a sigh of relief.

• Delta Air Lines customers are seeking damages. Delta Air Lines is facing a class-action lawsuit alleging the airline refused to issue refunds after a global technology outage last month. Among airlines, Delta was by far the hardest hit by the outage, having to cancel thousands of flights as key systems were knocked out of service by the incident.

• Under Armor shares rise as restructuring makes progress. Under Armor Inc. reported results that beat analysts' expectations and raised its forecast as the sportswear brand shows signs of improvement.

• Palantir (PLTR) shares rose another 11% yesterday and are trading at nearly $30 this morning. The company announced a partnership with Microsoft to sell artificial intelligence data analytics products to US government agencies.

 Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- Trader position data, which will indicate the amount of yen shorts exiting the market, will be provided by the CFTC.
- Final data on the CPI in Germany.
- Unemployment rate according to ILO data in France for the second quarter.

Fundamental Reviews

• An update to US jobless claims was in focus on Thursday as attention to the labor market intensified. Government data showed there were 233,000 initial jobless claims in the week that ended Aug. 3, down from 250,000 last week and less than economists had forecast. This figure gave new impetus to markets on Thursday.

• JPMorgan raised the probability of a recession in the US to 35% by the end of this year. At the beginning of July the probability was 25%.

• Inflation in China unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% to 0.5% y/y. +0.3% was expected. Of course, these are all very low levels. But rising inflation could deter the People's Bank of China from aggressive monetary support measures.

• Mexico's central bank cuts interest rates by 0.25% to 10.75% despite rising inflation, shocking analysts. A Moody's analyst said the Bank of Mexico "took an unnecessary risk." Inflation rose more than 1% to 5.57% in July. / However, core inflation increased in July by only 0.3% and amounted to just over 4%. It turns out that the real rate of the Central Bank of Mexico is still very high. And their actions can be justified.

• Trump attacked the Fed's independence again yesterday. "I think the president should at least have a say in this matter."

• Trump's nightmare: We are very close to world war. The US is close to depression. We are close to the crash of 1929.

• Biden said he is not confident of a peaceful transfer of power if Donald Trump loses the November 2024 presidential election.

• Mexico invited Putin to the inauguration of President Claudia Sheinbaum, which will take place on October 1. Ukraine asks to arrest him. Mexico is subject to the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court since it signed the Rome Statute in 2005.

• Three Taylor Swift concerts were canceled in Vienna due to the arrest of persons who were allegedly preparing terrorist attacks. The suspects are related to ISIS, the police have established “the presence of appropriate preparatory actions.”

• Iran may reconsider its decision to massively attack Israel, - Politico. In recent days, the US has been convincing Tehran that an attack on Israel would only exacerbate tensions in the region and threaten a direct clash between the two.

• Powerful earthquake in Japan: The country was shaken by tremors of magnitude 7.1. Scientists feared a tsunami, but fortunately there were no large waves. Nuclear power plants were also not damaged.