A busy stock week, financial news from companies, the height of political activity in the USA
Market Reviews
• In the morning, financial markets are optimistic: in Japan and Hong Kong, stock indices are growing by 1-2%, and futures for American stock indices are growing by 0.4-0.6%. Bitcoin is approaching $70 thousand. Asian stocks started the week with strong growth - at least all, with the exception of China, where lower interest rates seem to have only increased investor concerns about the state of the country's economy. Futures on Wall Street and European stocks are also rising, perhaps awaiting at least soft guidance from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, if not the latter's actual interest rate cut.
• On Monday, the US Treasury will announce how much bonds it plans to sell in the quarter, while China's Politburo meeting could reveal more stimulus following last week's surprise rate cut. On Wall Street, about 40% of S&P500 companies by market value are reporting this week, including tech darlings Microsoft, Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook parent Meta Platforms. Expectations are high, so any hint of disappointment will test the mega-caps' sky-high valuations. Options suggest Microsoft shares could rise or fall nearly 5% after Tuesday night's results.
• McDonald's in Italy and Portugal has an "adult Happy Meal": This summer you can add a volleyball to your burgers for 2.60 euros.
• Moderna has admitted that its mRNA COVID vaccine may cause cancer. After billions of DNA fragments were discovered in vials containing dangerous injections. The discovery came after Dr. Robert Malone spoke at a hearing on “Injuries Caused by COVID-19 Vaccines” moderated by Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).
There, he described how Moderna's patent shows that COVID-19 "vaccine" vials contain billions of DNA fragments and other contaminants linked to birth defects and cancer.
• Mitsubishi will join the Honda and Nissan alliance. Honda and Nissan announced a full cooperation agreement back in March. Nissan owns 34.01% of Mitsubishi Motors shares, but at that time no decision had been made regarding this company.
According to a Japanese newspaper, the three automakers intend to work together to increase competitiveness against the backdrop of the successes of Tesla and Chinese manufacturers.
• US home insurers will suffer their biggest losses of the century in 2023, the FT reports. Insurers that provide homeowners policies suffered net underwriting losses of $15.2 billion last year, according to ratings agency AM Best.
• Barcelona wants to get rid of short-term rental housing. Will other tourist destinations do the same - AP. Imagine you're planning a vacation and can't find a place to stay on Airbnb or another booking site where you can spend a few days walking, shopping and eating among the locals. To maintain and expand the supply of housing for permanent residents, local authorities are considering this option.
• Shares of Eisai (4523.Japan) fell 12% on Monday after its Alzheimer's drug failed to receive marketing approval in the European Union. They fell 13% on Friday. It was also a negative for Biogen (BIIB), Eisai's commercial partner.
BIIB fell 7% on Friday.
• Over the weekend, Tesla offered US customers a discount on the Model Y. High lending rates and slowing demand have negatively impacted car sales. Tesla sold about 198,000 Model Ys in the first half of 2024, down about 2% from last year. The Y is Tesla's best-selling model in the US and around the world.
• Investors will also be watching to see if the lithium-ion battery fire that crippled traffic in Southern California and Nevada over the weekend has any consequences. Lithium-ion batteries burn hotly and are difficult to extinguish.
• Uber and Lyft won a court case in California that recognized drivers as contractors - WSJ. The state Supreme Court's decision preserves the gig economy business model.
• Demand for electric vehicles has fallen sharply in Germany. Since the beginning of the year, the number of orders for electric vehicles from private customers has fallen by 47% compared to the same period in 2023, according to a survey by the German Automotive Trade Association (ZDK), the results of which are published by Welt am Sonntag. The number of orders for hybrid vehicles decreased by 37%. At the same time, demand for cars running on diesel or gasoline increased by 24%.
• The US Department of Justice says TikTok collected the opinions of American users on issues such as abortion and gun control - AP. In a new indictment against one of the world's most popular tech companies, the Justice Department accuses TikTok of exploiting its capabilities to collect large amounts of information.
• Trump and Kennedy Jr. led the Bitcoin Conference, increasing confidence in cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin Conference demonstrates growing interest from political and technology leaders, highlighting the role of cryptocurrencies in the economy of the future.
Earnings reports stall stock market rally on doubts about artificial intelligence and consumer sentiment - Bloomberg
The latest earnings reports raise two worries that were already gnawing at the US stock market:
- the euphoria over artificial intelligence has gone too far
- and that in At some point, consumer spending will begin to slow.
Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 conference
- The USA will become the cryptocurrency capital of the planet and the world Bitcoin superpower
- Bitcoin does not threaten the dollar, we will issue many stablecoins pegged to USD.
- As long as I am president, there will never be a CBDC
- If he is elected president, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency will skyrocket like never before
- Promised not to sell BTC confiscated by the US government
- Announced the creation of US Bitcoin reserves.
- Never sell your bitcoins
A wonderfully eventful week lies ahead - from the Federal Reserve meeting and data on the US labor market, to a third of reporting companies in the S&P 500 stock index.
Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- UK consumer credit data for June
- Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
- US Treasury announces quarterly borrowing estimates
- Reports from Equity Residential, Hologic, Loews, McDonald's, ON Semiconductor, SBA Communications and Welltower .
Fundamental Reviews
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni traveled to China. The main purpose of Meloni's visit is to "stabilize Rome's ties with Beijing ahead of the unpredictable US presidential elections." Italy and China signed a three-year action plan on Sunday to implement past agreements and experiment with new forms of cooperation.
• Chinese Consul General in Belfast Zhang Meifang: BRICS officially announces the creation of a financial system similar to SWIFT.
• Viktor Orban accused the United States of undermining Nord Streams. He expressed the opinion that European politics had failed and the continent had ceased to defend its interests. The Danish authorities have stopped investigating the explosions at the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, as they see no grounds for initiating a criminal case. In early February 2024, Sweden also closed its own investigation with a similar rationale.
• Kamala Harris raised $200 million in her first week of campaigning. Campaign spokesman Michael Tyler called the results "record-breaking." More than 60% of the total came from donors who had not previously given to the Democratic campaign.
The Bloomberg story said the rapid fundraising underscores a surge in enthusiasm among Democrats about the new likely presidential candidate.
• The USA, Japan and South Korea signed a security agreement against the backdrop of threats from the Russian Federation and North Korea - media. The agreement was signed in response to nuclear and missile threats from the DPRK and its military integration with the Russian Federation.
• Southern Africa is left without a harvest until at least 2025. Due to the anomalous phenomenon El Niño - heating of the Pacific Ocean, which leads to global changes in weather around the world. Zimbabwe, Malawi and a number of other countries declared a national disaster. The drought has affected more than 27 million people. / Attention to the grain market.
• Venezuelans go to the polls to test their devotion to democracy - Bloomberg. They must choose between President Nicolas Maduro, whose 11-year rule has seen one of the worst humanitarian and economic crises in modern history, and a candidate who is not even on the ballot. The Maduro-controlled Supreme Court banned Machado from running for any office for 15 years. A former legislator, she won the October opposition primary with more than 90% of the vote. The opposition nominated a previously unknown candidate to voters, retired diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez.
The Socialists' 25-year one-party rule is likely to come to an end.
/ This could lead to the lifting of US sanctions on oil and gas production and open up Venezuela's gigantic resources to the world market. The Saudis and the Kremlin are tense.
• A doctored video posted by Elon Musk imitates Kamala Harris' voice, raising concerns about AI in politics.
“I, Kamala Harris, are your Democratic nominee for President because Joe Biden has finally shown his weakness at the debate,” says a voice imitating Harris in the video.
Harris also allegedly says she's a "diversity hire" because she's a woman and a person of color, and says she doesn't know "the most important things about running a country."
The video also includes some actual old clips of Harris.
/ If Harris wins, Elon Musk may be punished for this video.
• Trump threatened a Third World War if he lost the election. During a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said conflicts in the Middle East could escalate into World War III if he loses the election.
• The United States must stop indiscriminate unilateral sanctions on the issue of Ukraine - Chinese Foreign Ministry.
• The tension in the US presidential race is 49% versus 47%. Currently, Republican candidate Donald Trump is only 2 points ahead of Democratic opponent Kamala Harris, according to a poll by The Wall Street Journal.
• J.D. Vance is at the center of a scandal after he mocked Kamala Harris for not having children. The vice presidential candidate was criticized by Jennifer Aniston and other famous people.
Harris has refreshed her message on the economy as Trump and Republicans hound her on inflation - AP
Harris has begun crafting her own narrative on the economy, emphasizing ending child poverty, supporting unions, lowering health and child care costs, and protecting "dignity" in society as a whole.
• Lebanon attacked an Israeli village with rockets, killing 10 children and wounding 30 people. Israeli Foreign Minister: “Israel is close to a full-scale war with Hezbollah and Lebanon, the incident in the Golan crosses all red lines, there will be a response to it.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu interrupted his visit to the United States and is urgently returning home.
• Italy will present a hydrogen corridor plan in the fall. The so-called SouthH2 corridor should connect North Africa, Italy, Austria and Germany. The corridor will allow renewable hydrogen produced in the southern Mediterranean to reach European industry.
• More than 90 WTO member countries have entered into an agreement on E-Commerce. It provides for the transition to digitalization of customs documents and processes. In many cases this will eliminate the need to print out forms and hand them over to customs.
The parties to the agreement undertake to recognize electronic documents and electronic signatures. And also take legal measures to protect against Internet fraud.
• China's industrial profits rise faster in June despite economic slowdown - Reuters. China's industrial profits grew at a faster pace in June, official data showed on Saturday, even as businesses struggled with worsening consumer sentiment.
• G20 finance ministers agreed to work on effective taxation of the super-rich - AP. Finance ministers from leading rich and developing countries agreed on Friday to work towards effective taxation of the super-rich, a joint ministerial statement said.
• G20 financial leaders said on Friday the world economy was likely heading for a "soft landing"
but warned that wars and escalating conflicts could jeopardize that outlook. This was stated in a joint communiqué after a two-day meeting in Brazil.