A busy day of stock market events, possible recession from tariffs, company news and geopolitics

Latest stock market news

• Yesterday, the stock market rose uncertainly by an average of 0.6%. But this morning, everything is giving way on futures. The reporting season is becoming increasingly gloomy amid the threat of recession.
It is encouraging that oil is methodically getting cheaper – WTI is again below $60, and Brent is below $63.

• Investors will have a ton of data to pore over on Wednesday as they cap a month of change, highlighted by turbulent U.S. trade policy that has hammered markets and hurt businesses and consumers around the world. First up in Europe are preliminary inflation data from France and Germany, as well as growth figures for both economies and the wider eurozone bloc. The U.K. also publishes house price data.

• It remains to be seen whether the data will confirm the need for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), but markets are currently leaning towards another round of easing in June. Earlier this week, two ECB policymakers warned that the trade war with the United States could dampen the eurozone's nascent recovery and the bloc could face difficulties over tariffs.

• Then there are U.S. GDP and core PCE price index data, which show the world's largest economy is expected to grow just 0.3% in the first quarter. In fact, data on Tuesday showed the U.S. goods trade deficit widened to a record high in March as businesses stepped up efforts to import goods ahead of massive tariffs, suggesting trade is a major drag on growth.

• Investors have a lot to digest at the end of the month, having already had a wild ride following US President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office. But chaos appears to be the new normal these days.

There was little cause for optimism in markets on Wednesday, as relief from a possible easing of global trade tensions was offset by a worsening economic outlook and gloomy signals from corporations worried about Trump's tariffs.

• Despite Trump's efforts to soften the blow of his auto tariffs and signs of progress in broader trade talks, details remain scarce: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he had reached one deal with a foreign power.

• Delivery giant UPS said Tuesday it would cut 20,000 jobs to cut costs, while General Motors scrapped its guidance and postponed an investor meeting, joining a list of companies that have scrapped 2025 forecasts or downgraded their outlooks.

• Stocks struggled to find direction, with U.S. index futures falling and the U.S. dollar on track for its worst monthly performance in two years.

While the sell-off in US assets that gathered pace earlier this month appears to have subsided for now, confidence remains fragile and the recent spate of economic data gives investors little reason to return.

• U.S. consumer confidence fell to a nearly five-year low in April and job openings fell sharply in March, signs that cracks are beginning to show in the economy.

• The world's second-largest economy is also starting to feel the pressure amid ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States. China's manufacturing activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, a survey showed on Wednesday, as Trump's steep tariffs cut short a two-month recovery.

Still, Beijing is betting that Washington will take the initiative first in a protracted trade war as officials push ahead with stimulus plans for this year but hold off on new measures.

• Amazon (AMZN, -0.2%) Will Start Showing How Much Trump's Tariffs Add to Each Product - Punchbowl.
Shoppers Will See the Real Price of the "Trade War" Right in Their Shopping Cart.
AMZN Shares Slid After the White House Accused the Company of "Hostile and Politically Motivated Actions."
Trump Called Bezos and Decided - No Trump Price Tags at Amazon

• Trump's tariffs are disrupting one of the main online sales in the US - July Prime Day on Amazon, Reuters writes. Many sellers have already decided not to participate in the sale, hoping to sell goods at a higher price on regular days or to save their assortment for the future.

• Foreign investors sold $22 billion of U.S. stocks in April, GS reported, following a record $41 billion selloff in March, the biggest in more than a year.
European investors led the selling, according to fund flows data.
But foreigners still own about $16 trillion of U.S. stocks, about 23 percent of the total U.S. market.

• Alibaba (BABA) unveiled Qwen 3, a new AI model with advanced hybrid inference for developers.

• Goldman Sachs CEO: Trump's growth forecasts had to be cut in first 100 days
US policy is creating a dangerous level of uncertainty.
It's too early to judge where US policy is heading, but it's time to do something about the debt and deficit.
US government bonds remain a safe haven.

• The Warren Buffett Index remains at its third-highest level in history despite the recent sell-off in stocks.
The Warren Buffett Indicator is a ratio of a country's total stock market capitalization to its GDP. Buffett considers it one of the best ways to gauge whether a market is overheated: If the indicator is significantly above 100%, the market may be overvalued.

• The CEOs of Nvidia (NVDA), Eli Lilly (LLY), General Electric (GE) and other companies will visit the White House,
where Trump will unveil more than $2 trillion in U.S. investment commitments made in the first 100 days of his second term.

• Amazon Launches First Project Kuiper Satellites. Amazon (AMZN) has successfully launched the first 27 of a planned 236 Project Kuiper satellites into orbit, beginning the rollout of its satellite internet network that is set to compete with SpaceX's Starlink.

• Latnik said the US would speed up mining, support the construction of its own energy infrastructure and reduce dependence on the general power grid.
Miners would be allowed to build power plants and data centers near natural gas fields.
Integration of BTC into national economic accounts is also being considered.

• India is using its 590 Boeing planes order ($67 billion) as a way to reduce its trade surplus with the US ($47+ billion) and an argument to avoid new tariffs, Bloomberg said.

• Trump wants to soften the impact of auto tariffs - plans to avoid overlapping duties and ease levies on imported parts used in U.S. auto production - WSJ.

• Oil prices are falling amid unstable trade relations between the US and China. Brent crude futures fell by $0.44 to $65.42 per barrel, while the cost of American WTI crude fell by $0.40 to $61.65 per barrel.

• There is a positive buzz around WLD, with word that Sam Altman will be announcing a new social platform based on Worldcoin today at the upcoming summit.

• BlackRock purchased 10,360 BTC worth $971 million.

• 21Shares filed with the SEC to launch a spot DOGE ETF.

• Tesla (TSLA, +2%) will deliver its first Semi electric trucks within six months. The company also said it plans to reach production of 50,000 trucks a year by 2026 despite tariff pressure.

• Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn has officially announced that the company is going AI-first—that is, putting artificial intelligence at the center of its strategy.

• Meta (META) has released Meta AI V1, the first official version of its own AI app.

• Apollo warns that Nonfarm's Friday release could be much worse than market consensus or even negative
, as the survey was conducted after the Liberation Day tariff announcements amid high uncertainty for business.

• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) +0.5% After posting impressive first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations,
the company attributed its success to membership growth and new product launches, leading it to revise its 2025 financial outlook upward.

• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) +23%
when it announced a strategic partnership with Novo Nordisk (NVO) to distribute weight-loss drug Wegovy.

• Boeing (BA, -0.2%) got a boost after S&P Global Ratings decided not to downgrade its credit rating to junk status.

• Joby Aviation (JOBY, +2%) announced a breakthrough in its electric air taxi program,
successfully completing manned flights that transitioned from vertical takeoff to horizontal cruise and back.

• Altria (MO, +1%) updated its full-year earnings forecast despite a mixed first-quarter earnings report in which it beat earnings expectations but missed revenue.

The tobacco giant cited falling supply volumes and competition from illegal products as factors that affected its performance, although higher prices eased the situation somewhat.

• Honeywell International (HON, +5%) reported strong first-quarter earnings, beating expectations and raising its full-year earnings outlook.
The company attributed the gains to higher sales in its Building Automation and Power segments, as well as a growing order book that positions it well to navigate tariff challenges.

• Spotify (SPOT, -3%) reported a 15% year-over-year increase in Q1 revenue and a 12% increase in subscribers.
Shares fell on concerns about potential price increases and market dynamics weighing on profitability.

• Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, +6%) showed resilience in its latest results as the company emphasized continued investment in next-generation projects that are not impacted by tariff threats.
This stability is supported by a strong order book and recurring revenue, providing stability in uncertain times.

• Ares Capital (ARCC, -3%) reported mixed results for the first quarter,
with net investment income beating expectations despite a decline in interest income from investments.

• Brinker International (EAT, -15%) reported strong third-quarter results, helped by strong sales at Chili's.
Despite that, shares fell 8.5% in pre-market trading as investors weighed the impact of broader market uncertainty on future results.

• Satellite maker Apex raises $200M to boost production for Golden Dome.

• Wells Fargo said Tuesday that its board of directors has approved a share repurchase program worth up to $40 billion.

• Food distributor Sysco (SYY) cut its full-year forecast due to weak restaurant traffic,
adding that California wildfires and severe weather also impacted demand for fresh fruits, vegetables and meat products to restaurants.

• Visa (V) shares are up 1% this morning after the report. Visa's earnings show that spending remains healthy.
Spending growth was strongest among high-net-worth individuals, but Visa saw solid trends overall.

• SNAP shares fall 14% morning after earnings
as Snap sees its ad business taking a hit ahead.

• FSLR shares fall 11% morning after earnings
Tariffs force First Solar to cut sales and profit forecasts

• SMCI shares fall 15% on morning after earnings report
Super Micro warns of significantly lower-than-expected fiscal third-quarter revenue and profit

• NVDA shares also fell by 2%.

Other stocks in the morning after the report:
- MDLZ +2%
- OKE - 3%
- BKNG - 4%
- SBUX - 6%

• Toyota to partner with self-driving car leader Waymo to develop self-driving cars.
“Toyota aims to create a zero-failure society and become a mobility company that enables mobility for all. We share a strong sense of purpose and a common vision with Waymo to improve safety through automated driving technology.”
Waymo, which began as the Google Self-Driving Car project in 2009, now offers fully autonomous ride-hailing services in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Austin, and is rolling them out to other U.S. cities. The company also has a partnership with ride-hailing leader Uber.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- France and Germany preliminary inflation (April).
- Eurozone, France, Germany preliminary GDP (Q1).
- UK house prices nationwide (April).
- US GDP, advance (Q1).
- US core PCE price index (March).

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Fresh Eurozone data:
Business Climate 0.67 (exp. N/A / pop. -0.72).
Consumer Confidence -16.7 (exp. -16.7 / pop. -14.5).
Services Sentiment = 1.4 (exp. 2.2 / pop. 2.2).
Industrial Sentiment = -11.2 (exp. -10.1 / pop. -10.7).

• U.S. Trade Balance (Mar-Feb) = -$162B (-$142.8B expected / -$147.85B prior).
Businesses have been rushing to replenish inventories, and the trade deficit will narrow sharply in April.
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings = Actual: 7.192M, Forecast: 7.5M, Pop: 7.568M.
Job openings fell more than expected in March and are hovering near a 4-year low.
U.S. CB Consumer Confidence = Actual: 86. Forecast: 88. Pop: 92.9.
Latest Data:
Atlanta FED GDPnow (Q1) = -2.7% (-2.5% expected / -2.5%).
Dallas Fed Services Revenues = 3.8 pop 1.3).
Texas Services Sector Outlook = -19.4 (-11.3 pop).

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:
- We are committed to long-term tariff revenue and trade deals.
- Tariffs will cost jobs in China.
- China will bear the brunt.
- Tariff revenue could be used to reduce the tax burden.
- Income tax cuts are likely to be included in the tax bill.
- We will negotiate with at least 17 partners over the next few weeks.
- Trump is creating strategic uncertainty in the talks.
- The 'window of uncertainty' will narrow.

• Chinese companies control about 90% of the global market for commercial drones and critical components for them.
American UAV manufacturers are also focused on the Chinese supply chain, according to a study by Drone Industry Insights UG.

• China Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (exp. 49.8, prev. 51.2). Chinese manufacturing fell less than expected, but the impact of Trump's tariffs is yet to come.

• Democrat Thanedar has brought seven articles of impeachment against Trump. He accuses Trump of massive abuse of power, flagrant violation of the Constitution and tyrannical abuse of power that undermines democracy.
This is the first formal impeachment attempt in Trump's second term.

• China has accused the US of starting a trade war and demanded that the threats stop if Washington really wants to reach an agreement
. The US should seek a dialogue with China on tariffs.
We need a dialogue based on mutual respect with the US.

• China is ready to develop relations with Canada based on mutual respect - Chinese Foreign Ministry.

• China is starting direct shipments to Peru from the port of Guangzhou, the country's largest shipping hub in the south,
in a move that will cut logistics costs and boost trade with Latin America - CCTV

• China could run out of copper reserves - FT The country's market is experiencing "one of the worst shortages in history" amid fears of US tariffs.

• The global economy is threatened with recession due to the tariff shock from the US - analysts, RTRS survey.

• Trump proposes income tax cut through tariffs. Proposes to eliminate income tax for most households, but the math doesn't add up - WSJ

• The Hungarian Parliament voted to withdraw from the International Criminal Court.

• The European Union may separate Moldova's accession process from Ukraine's because Hungary is resisting negotiations with Kiev.
This was stated in an interview with Europa Libera Moldova by European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos.

• Malta must stop issuing 'Golden Passports' - EU court An EU member state cannot grant its citizenship - and certainly not EU citizenship - in exchange for investment because it "effectively reduces the acquisition of citizenship to a mere commercial transaction", the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg has ruled.

• In Spain and Portugal, as of the morning of April 29, power supply had been restored to almost all consumers after large-scale power outages.
In Spain, they will check the version that the large-scale blackout in the country could have been the result of sabotage - Europa Press. According to the publication, the resolution states that if the incident is recognized as sabotage, it can be considered a "terrorist crime" in accordance with the Kingdom's Criminal Code.

• Britain reports unusual power fluctuations ahead of Spanish blackout.
The UK grid operator reported unexpected power frequency changes on Sunday morning. Around 2am, the Keadby 2 gas-fired power station experienced a power outage, followed by a failure of the Viking Link interconnector between the UK and Denmark.
The cause is still unknown.

• China collected information about the leaders of the Alternative for Germany - Spiegel.
According to the German magazine, this is the conclusion reached by German prosecutors who brought charges against 44-year-old Jiang G. and his accomplice. They are suspected of working for the Chinese secret services.